Heads up allin EV question

TimovieMan

TimovieMan

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no ist still +ev acording to the calc
It's not if villain shows his TT and open-shoves 100bb. You KNOW that your AK only has 43% equity, so you can't make the call without being -EV.

how come there is no single -ev decision in an example but AK is a fold against TT as you said in a first line yet the example is AK vs TT and you're saying that there was no -ev decision
There's not a single -EV decision if you're playing against a range instead of a single hand. In that case both TT and AK only made +EV decisions since they were ahead of the opponent's range, had fold equity, or had correct odds to call a shove.
Once you stop making it real poker decisions but turn the hands face-up, then everything AK did was -EV, since he was behind preflop, and TT could play perfectly postflop.
That's my entire point: you're NEVER up against a single hand, you're up against a range, and against a realistic range, everything in this example was +EV. There's a reason why TT and AK are strong hands to have...
 
DrazaFFT

DrazaFFT

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It's not if villain shows his TT and open-shoves 100bb. You KNOW that your AK only has 43% equity, so you can't make the call without being -EV.

Yea i misinterpreted what you said, thought that you were talking about the example in the OP, not the open shove 100bb.

About everything else we still talk about two different things, you do realize that AKo plays pretty much the same against TT and against the range of TT+ AQ+ so against the fixed hand of TT or against the whole range of TT+ AQ+ hero's hand is still behind here, the only difference that makes our decision +ev is the action in front of us, against open shove we are bleading money, against 4bet we are marginally +ev difference here is made by money not by hand equity the more money already in the pot the lesser equity we need to be +ev, this is the whole point im trying to make our equity doesnt changes much against TT or against the range that is not ridiculously wide, its the money in that makes the diference, MONEY, MONEY...

solve the example i put? +ev? -ev? change the sizings, add a 4bet by villain and flat by hero, add 3rd guy who also flat 4bet pre but fold flop, give us more outs on flop to be ahead, took outs to only FD to hero and see that money (read pot odds) dictates are we making +ev or not, not just the equity, it is much easier to do it on flop cuz we all used to do that from the very beginning of each of ours poker journey but we are not used to take a look at pot odds preflop, hand against a range or against a hand would still be +ev if pot odds are greater than equity, if this is true for post flop how come it can't be true preflop...
 
E

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But isn't this rather fallible way of calculating profit? The only external contribution was €1 from the BB. The rest is from the the 2 contestants, who both show +EV?? That is impossible. They cannot both show +EV. There must be an error somewhere.

As a few people have already pointed out you can't think of where the contribution to the pot came from, it's already there and it's dead money. The fact that there was only €1 from the BB is irrelevant to making the decision to shove once the pot was built preflop.

If you didn't count the money you contributed to the pot towards your pot odds there would be very few situations where it would be profitable to call a raise.

In a coin flip situation both players have similar odds to win preflop so assuming equal stack sizes if it is +EV for one player to shove it is also likely it will be +EV for the other player to call the shove. It makes sense for both players to call.
 
TimovieMan

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About everything else we still talk about two different things, you do realize that AKo plays pretty much the same against TT and against the range of TT+ AQ+ so against the fixed hand of TT or against the whole range of TT+ AQ+ hero's hand is still behind here
Actually, AKo has over 49% equity vs TT+/AQ+, so that's closer to a true coinflip.

And the opponent's range only becomes TT+/AQ+ once he shoves. Surely he open-raises wider than this before we 3-bet?

Also, besides fish, who open-shoves 100bb? That's also just a hypothetical example with a weird range.

the only difference that makes our decision +ev is the action in front of us, against open shove we are bleading money
Depends on who's the idiot that's open-shoving. If it's a KK+ moron, then sure, fold, if it's one of those "I'm shoving every third hand" idiots, then you're so far ahead it's going to be like printing money.

against 4bet we are marginally +ev difference here is made by money not by hand equity the more money already in the pot the lesser equity we need to be +ev, this is the whole point im trying to make our equity doesnt changes much against TT or against the range that is not ridiculously wide, its the money in that makes the diference, MONEY, MONEY...
Depends on opponent's 4-bet range, and the raising range that folds to our 3-bet as well. We're often taking the pot down when 3-betting with AK, that also adds to our equity in that decision. When he shoves, it depends on his 4-betting range, and frankly, if opponent is 4-bet-shoving TT, then he's going to be wide enough for AK to be a coinflip at worst. There's bound to be some dominated Ax 4-bet bluffs in his range as well, imo. Our equity is massive against those.

solve the example i put? +ev? -ev? change the sizings, add a 4bet by villain and flat by hero, add 3rd guy who also flat 4bet pre but fold flop, give us more outs on flop to be ahead, took outs to only FD to hero and see that money (read pot odds) dictates are we making +ev or not, not just the equity, it is much easier to do it on flop cuz we all used to do that from the very beginning of each of ours poker journey but we are not used to take a look at pot odds preflop, hand against a range or against a hand would still be +ev if pot odds are greater than equity, if this is true for post flop how come it can't be true preflop...
It's not so easily solvable, because there's so many different factors that come into it. But as this example was played, I doubt any single decision is going to be -EV.
And pot odds can apply with every decision, not just postflop. You just have to consider how well your hand does against your opponent's perceived range.
 
DrazaFFT

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About everything else we still talk about two different things, you do realize that AKo plays pretty much the same against TT and against the range of TT+ AQ+ so against the fixed hand of TT or against the whole range of TT+ AQ+ hero's hand is still behind here, the only difference that makes our decision +ev is the action in front of us, against open shove we are bleading money, against 4bet we are marginally +ev difference here is made by money not by hand equity the more money already in the pot the lesser equity we need to be +ev, this is the whole point im trying to make our equity doesnt changes much against TT or against the range that is not ridiculously wide, its the money in that makes the diference, MONEY, MONEY...

Depends on who's the idiot that's open-shoving. If it's a KK+ moron, then sure, fold, if it's one of those "I'm shoving every third hand" idiots, then you're so far ahead it's going to be like printing money.

Depends on opponent's 4-bet range, and the raising range that folds to our 3-bet as well. We're often taking the pot down when 3-betting with AK, that also adds to our equity in that decision. When he shoves, it depends on his 4-betting range, and frankly, if opponent is 4-bet-shoving TT, then he's going to be wide enough for AK to be a coinflip at worst. There's bound to be some dominated Ax 4-bet bluffs in his range as well, imo. Our equity is massive against those.

In the paragraph you are quoting his range is defined by OP way before i jumped in the discussion, in the same paragraph i was referring strictly about the scenario above with the ranges we already got from OP, of course that ranges are a factor but the ranges were never a subject of the discussion here and was never a part of the equation i wanted to make point at, that is why i keep telling you that that we are talking about 2 different thing the whole time, i was saying that when we have ranges and have our equity against a range the money already in (dead money) dictates would our decision be +ev or not, try to look at it from that point, take opponents range, define it and calculate our equity, of course you can say now, but we dont know his range, he might be ATC idiot or could be KK+ nit, thats fine, i agree, then define 5 different ranges from moron to nit and create 5 different scenarios (believe me i played around with it so many times, dont think that i teasing you or something) then start creating the action scenario for each, open shoved, opened/3bet/shoved, opened/3bet/4bet/shoved (position are switched for this scenario, not relevant but just pointing :D) then see how our EV is different with the money already in. Do the same with the scenario i gave you, even better cuz its on the flop, also can create bunch of scenarios with bunch of different ranges and with different equity and for each equity change the money already in and see how our ev is different, that was the point i tried to make, never ever said that ranges are not relevant (have said it inly in the part when we had given range vs fixed TT hand).

It's not so easily solvable, because there's so many different factors that come into it. But as this example was played, I doubt any single decision is going to be -EV.
As i already said above, there is no right or wrong answer, i made the example so we can play with it by changing flops, ranges, dead money, also effective stack can play huge difference here, give a fixed range to the opponent just for the purpose of the experiment, calc how big our equity is against it the change the the dead money and effective stacks, vs shorstack and vs ms, you will see the difference in ev

And pot odds can apply with every decision, not just postflop. You just have to consider how well your hand does against your opponent's perceived range.
Havent i already said the same here??
solve the example i put? +ev? -ev? change the sizings, add a 4bet by villain and flat by hero, add 3rd guy who also flat 4bet pre but fold flop, give us more outs on flop to be ahead, took outs to only FD to hero and see that money (read pot odds) dictates are we making +ev or not, not just the equity, it is much easier to do it on flop cuz we all used to do that from the very beginning of each of ours poker journey but we are not used to take a look at pot odds preflop, hand against a range or against a hand would still be +ev if pot odds are greater than equity, if this is true for post flop how come it can't be true preflop...
 
TimovieMan

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Well, if you want to put the entire hand down as ALWAYS TT vs ALWAYS AKo, then all we need to know is this:

Does TT know he's up against AK?

Because if AKo knows he's up against TT, but TT doesn't know what AK has, then AK can still profitably call the first PFR, see a flop and take it from there (continuing if he hits, only continuing if he misses but has pot odds to draw to a 6-outer).
If TT knows he's up against AKo, then AKo should fold preflop always. Even if he hits, TT is giving up, so no implied odds to make up for the part of the equity AK is behind.

So yeah, if AKo knew he was up against TT, and knew that TT wasn't folding preflop, then AKo made some -EV decisions in the example as played.

If both TT and AKo are playing real poker (and not the hypothetical situations above), then the entire example is +EV.


Are we still talking about two entirely different things?
 
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