Heads up allin EV question

[mbrenneman0]

Once a player shoves, then he can no longer act after that, so doesn't that mean he is not an active player, making the money in the pot "dead" for the remaining player

Maybe I'm wrong about what makes some one an active player

 

[rhombus]

In Easy Game Balugawhale talked about the capitalisation of dead money which changed his 3rd reason for betting, which was to deprive our opponent his equity

 

[Daithi]

Once a player shoves, then he can no longer act after that, so doesn't that mean he is not an active player, making the money in the pot "dead" for the remaining player

Maybe I'm wrong about what makes some one an active player

What makes the player active is that he/she is still part of the hand, still has their cards.

 

[Daithi]

No +ev situation would ever bring you to bankruptcy, you just need to understand that it is a thin edge situation, meaning that it would be so swingy and better have a big hypothetical bankroll if you wanna run this situation long term (hypotheticaly speaking of course). Also important is to fully understand why is this a +ev and when it would be and when it wont, as i said if he insta shove and you insta call it would be -ev but if he opens, 2 people call you sqz he shoves and only you need to call the will be enough money to compensate your <50% equity...

I had calculated instashoves as well, and yes the result was -EV. So here's the deal.

As far as the source of the money, there is no difference between instashove and my example. 1bb dead money + 200bb (100 villain, 100 hero). Equity hasn't changed either since all happened Preflop.

I see no difference between instashove and this example in final result.

 

[TimovieMan]

You don't have to in a theoretical construct focused on a very specific issue . So let's use even a little more surrealism. Hero did not know what he had, he didn't put him on a range. Hero is a fish and did not want to fold the Slick no matter what. So he called his shove, BTN showed TT, percentages on Pokerstars for example were shown.

Fish occasionally make +EV decisions too.

 

[TimovieMan]

I had calculated instashoves as well, and yes the result was -EV. So here's the deal.

As far as the source of the money, there is no difference between instashove and my example. 1bb dead money + 200bb (100 villain, 100 hero). Equity hasn't changed either since all happened Preflop.

I see no difference between instashove and this example in final result.

There is a big difference between instashove and your example, because the example in this thread sees 4 decisions, each with their own EV. Instashoves only have two decisions. And even instashove is not necessarily -EV for AK. It depends on what hands TT open-instashoves.

You can shout that I'm getting hung up on ranges all you want, but that's exactly what you should be doing when looking at each decision individually. And that's also why you should take fold equity into account.
The calc is a lot more difficult than instashove TT vs AK.

 

[DrazaFFT]

I had calculated instashoves as well, and yes the result was -EV. So here's the deal.

As far as the source of the money, there is no difference between instashove and my example. 1bb dead money + 200bb (100 villain, 100 hero). Equity hasn't changed either since all happened Preflop.

I see no difference between instashove and this example in final result.

wait where you dont see the difference? In a 3bet pot calling a shove is +ev cuz your call is smaller and the pot to be won is bigger thus your pot odds are better which make that call +ev
hero AKo 100bb
vil TT 100bb
case 1
vil bet 3bb hero raise 15bb, vil shove, hero have 85bb left
total pot 200bb
hero win 200bb*43%-85=86-85=1bb
case 2
vil snap shoves hero calls
hero win 200*43%-100=86-100=-14bb

oversimplified the math by excluding the blinds but just wanted to show the difference between 3bet pot and snap shoved pot, add someone who flat 3bet but forld to shove makes it even better +ev situation, see where im going with this?

 

[rhombus]

Look what you started Daithi

 

[DrazaFFT]

Look what you started Daithi

LOL, true

Tho i wish there is more of thread like this, i would benefit us all :trytofly:

 

[rhombus]

LOL, true

Tho i wish there is more of thread like this, i would benefit us all :trytofly:

so true nothing wrong with a healthy debate, so that we all learn

 

[Daithi]

wait where you dont see the difference? In a 3bet pot calling a shove is +ev cuz your call is smaller and the pot to be won is bigger thus your pot odds are better which make that call +ev
hero AKo 100bb
vil TT 100bb
case 1
vil bet 3bb hero raise 15bb, vil shove, hero have 85bb left
total pot 200bb
hero win 200bb*43%-85=86-85=1bb
case 2
vil snap shoves hero calls
hero win 200*43%-100=86-100=-14bb

oversimplified the math by excluding the blinds but just wanted to show the difference between 3bet pot and snap shoved pot, add someone who flat 3bet but forld to shove makes it even better +ev situation, see where im going with this?

Yes I get the math, I had calculated the same. But no matter how you put it there is 200bb (201), 100 yours and 100 villains and you only own 43.5% 😀. You are saying the Pot gave you favourable Odds according to standard EV formuka. I am saying that it appears to be an illusion because you ended up allin 1:1 (minus the blind) and you only own 43.5% percent of the Pot, but committed 50%.

 

[Daithi]

Look what you started Daithi

I know haha.

 

[Daithi]

There is a big difference between instashove and your example, because the example in this thread sees 4 decisions, each with their own EV. Instashoves only have two decisions. And even instashove is not necessarily -EV for AK. It depends on what hands TT open-instashoves.

I know there was a difference in the process of ending up allin. But none the less in this example you ended up in a 201bb Pot where your total contribution was 100bb and villains was also 100bb. 1:1 or 50% if you will. Your Equity is only 43.5%. It surely cannot be good for bankroll.

 

[mbrenneman0]

Yes I get the math, I had calculated the same. But no matter how you put it there is 200bb (201), 100 yours and 100 villains and you only own 43.5% 😀. You are saying the Pot gave you favourable Odds according to standard EV formuka. I am saying that it appears to be an illusion because you ended up allin 1:1 (minus the blind) and you only own 43.5% percent of the Pot, but committed 50%.

You can't take your part of the pot back if you fold...
Once the money is in the pot its not yours anymore, so you can't think of it as money you are paying into the pot, but its money that has been paid into the pot. The pot is 116 and you have to pay 84 to have the chance at winning 116

 

[Daithi]

You can't take your part of the pot back if you fold...
Once the money is in the pot its not yours anymore, so you can't think of it as money you are paying into the pot, but its money that has been paid into the pot. The pot is 116 and you have to pay 84 to have the chance at winning 116

I understand, I really do. I know it appears I don't. But what I am trying to say is that if the 116 came partly from another 3rd player (I know the equities would change) it would need to be better for Winrate. I know that once it's in the Pot it's in the Pot, but perhaps it does make difference for your Winrate where the money came from.

Let's say Pot of 116 where 3 players are involved and you'd have 43.5% would have to be much better for your Winrate than the same Pot with same Equity with only 2 contributors.

 

[mbrenneman0]

I understand, I really do. I know it appears I don't. But what I am trying to say is that if the 116 came partly from another 3rd player (I know the equities would change) it would need to be better for Winrate. I know that once it's in the Pot it's in the Pot, but perhaps it does make difference for your Winrate where the money came from.

Let's say Pot of 116 where 3 players are involved and you'd have 43.5% would have to be much better for your Winrate than the same Pot with same Equity with only 2 contributors.

Your equity decreases with a third player involved.
It doesn't matter where the money comes from. All that matters is how much you have to pay vs how much you can win and your equity

 

[mbrenneman0]

I think I see what you're saying.
EV is not calculated for the profit of the whole hand, only for the profit of the individual decision. Again, the money you put into the pot is money you already lost in earlier decisions so its not counted as the profit of an individual decision.

 

[TimovieMan]

I know there was a difference in the process of ending up allin. But none the less in this example you ended up in a 201bb Pot where your total contribution was 100bb and villains was also 100bb. 1:1 or 50% if you will. Your Equity is only 43.5%. It surely cannot be good for bankroll.

If villain shows TT and shoves, then yeah, fold your AK as it's a losing proposition.

You keep making it this hypothetical situation that's never going to occur. It doesn't work like that. TT doesn't know we have AK. AK doesn't know he's up against TT.

As played in the example, there's not a single -EV decision to be made.

 

[DrazaFFT]

Yes I get the math, I had calculated the same. But no matter how you put it there is 200bb (201), 100 yours and 100 villains and you only own 43.5% &#55357;&#56832;. You are saying the Pot gave you favourable Odds according to standard EV formuka. I am saying that it appears to be an illusion because you ended up allin 1:1 (minus the blind) and you only own 43.5% percent of the Pot, but committed 50%.

Its 2am here and i go to work at 6am so cant put much of my brain right now but wouldnt that mean that you should never play your draws cuz in the heads up you are always putting half of the total money in the pot with odds that are good for the, lets say flop bet, but actually you're 1:1 overall?

it doesnt seem logical

lemme try one quick

hero 100bb QsJs
vill 100bb XY

vil bet 3bb hero bet 15bb (why the hell are we 3bet to 15bb i have misinterpreted the first post with sizings... )vil call, pot 24bb
flop AsTs2c vill shove with remaining 85bb +ev or -ev to call??????????

Spoiler

odds for a combo draw to improve with 2 cards to come using a simple rule of 4 are:
outs x 4
if outs>9
outs x 4 - (outs-9)
12*4-(12-9) =48-3 =45% (roughly)
200*.45-85=90-85=5evbb

still -ev cuz we invested 100bb in the total hand? I really dont think so and i dont think that it works that way, but im not writing this with being 100% sure, decision itself here have to be profitable, HEM would bring the yellow (ev line) up for sure, i simply dont get how if we play it like 1m times we would win 5m bb but we would actually in reality lose 10evbb which is 10m bb i simply cant get it that way...

 

[Daithi]

I think I see what you're saying.
EV is not calculated for the profit of the whole hand, only for the profit of the individual decision. Again, the money you put into the pot is money you already lost in earlier decisions so its not counted as the profit of an individual decision.

I see your point. Very well put. But the fact that the Pot was built from a wager between two people and they both received +EV is just strange.

 

[Daithi]

Its 2am here and i go to work at 6am so cant put much of my brain right now but wouldnt that mean that you should never play your draws cuz in the heads up you are always putting half of the total money in the pot with odds that are good for the, lets say flop bet, but actually you're 1:1 overall?

it doesnt seem logical

lemme try one quick

hero 100bb QsJs
vill 100bb XY

vil bet 3bb hero bet 15bb (why the hell are we 3bet to 15bb i have misinterpreted the first post with sizings... )vil call, pot 24bb
flop AsTs2c vill shove with remaining 85bb +ev or -ev to call??????????

Spoiler

odds for a combo draw to improve with 2 cards to come using a simple rule of 4 are:
outs x 4
if outs>9
outs x 4 - (outs-9)
12*4-(12-9) =48-3 =45% (roughly)
200*.45-85=90-85=5evbb

still -ev cuz we invested 100bb in the total hand? I really dont think so and i dont think that it works that way, but im not writing this with being 100% sure, decision itself here have to be profitable, HEM would bring the yellow (ev line) up for sure, i simply dont get how if we play it like 1m times we would win 5m bb but we would actually in reality lose 10evbb which is 10m bb i simply cant get it that way...

See and what about the other guy. He wins as well +EV. He sure as hell has to with 55%. Where does the money come from for both of them to be winners when only 2 people waggered O

I'm confused from all this must take a break and come back to it tomorrow.

 

[DrazaFFT]

If villain shows TT and shoves, then yeah, fold your AK as it's a losing proposition.
no ist still +ev acording to the calc
You keep making it this hypothetical situation that's never going to occur. It doesn't work like that. TT doesn't know we have AK. AK doesn't know he's up against TT.
expected value is hypothetical thing so discussing it have to kinda look like we are discussing relativity theory, AK wont always face TT, it plays the same against TT+ AQ+
As played in the example, there's not a single -EV decision to be made.
how come there is no single -ev decision in an example but AK is a fold against TT as you said in a first line yet the example is AK vs TT and you're saying that there was no -ev decision

Bolded

I think you missing the point of what Daih wants to discuss about, we are stuck in the confusion whether the single +ev decision dictates winning money in the long run or the percentage of money put in the from our side throughtout the whole course of the hand need to be lower than our equity in order to make profit...

 

[mbrenneman0]

Where does the money come from for both of them to be winners when only 2 people waggered O .

From the money that has already been put in. +EV for a decision is not profit for a hand. One of these players must have made a -EV decision before the shove

 

[Daithi]

From the money that has already been put in. +EV for a decision is not profit for a hand. One of these players must have made a -EV decision before the shove

Okay, sure, unless they have the same hands one of them will pretty much have to make -EV before the shove. Okay, so let's say it is the AK. Shouldnt AK therefore have negative EV?

 

[mbrenneman0]

Okay, sure, unless they have the same hands one of them will pretty much have to make -EV before the shove. Okay, so let's say it is the AK. Shouldnt AK therefore have negative EV?

Not for the individual decision

The EV formula you are using is a calculation for an individual decision. In order to find the EV of the whole hand, I think you would need to calculate the EV of each decision. So if hero raises then shoves, it would be the EV of the raise + the EV of the shove