Is my friend insane? Folding QQ to AK preflop.

M

mickyb

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Shouldnt that be the other way around?

For sure.

In a large tourney, you'll need to win some flips to get anywhere, may as well take being on the right side of one now.

Late in a tourney there's a case for folding and hoping more people go out before you are forced to risk your chips, but picking up the blinds and antes will make it too tempting; I guess it would be right to fold three-handed in a bodog tourney when the player not involved is short-stacked, they often have a massive jump in prize money from 3rd place to 2nd.
 
Q

Qutsemnie

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Someone above asked what is the probability that you run out of money using this betting strategy. And being a stat guy I had the tools to simulate this easily.

I am going to add one condition that is sort of fake: you always bet 10% of your *intial* bank roll on 56 to 44 and keep that same bet size for ever. That is sort of an artificial constraint because real players would start betting less =)

But supposing you did that then about 8 to 9% of the time you would loose your entire bank roll in 10000 successive bets. Usually in the first 100 bets this would occur (bout 6% of the time)

If instead you limit yourself to bets of 5% of your initial bank roll and repeat this then you only go broke about .7% of the time (.007).

I like .007 much better than .07, and Ferguson recommends the 5% number as a max buy in on full tilt poker.

Someone above mentioned hosing your expected value, but playing small ball relative to your bank roll is going to be how you get your long run performance to be about the EV of your decisions and not individual gambling outcomes. 10% of your BR is riding the edge of that. 5% is in much safer territory.
 
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jrosekcs

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only 10%....gotta call with the 3rd best hand....even if he had AA or KK 10% to possible knockout and go up is a small risk...and i mean small:cool:
 
R

RA2000

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Maybe he felt like lossing.... Who knows...
Normally he had to call!
 
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Syfted

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Qutsemnie, that was probably the most helpful answer in this thread. Calling in this situation really should only be done on a bankroll that is fully replenishible. We may be able to replenish a $2,000 roll, but a $20,000 roll we would want to have much more stringent bankroll requirement towards. We should take more shots with the smaller roll since if we do bust it due to variance, we will be able to replenish it with a secondary source.
 
Stu_Ungar

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This notion of playing differently because your STACK size represents 10% of your bankroll is insane. I just can't see it.

You are not risking 10% of you BR. You are risking 5%.

Your BR is the money you are not playing poker with. You withdraw 5% as that is a reasonable amount and allows you to cope with variance.

Once that 5% is on the table it is not in your BR.

The pot odds are correct for a call QQ vs AK (provided you know its AK)

but you are treating the money as though it's still sat in your wallet.

Think of it like this. If you loose the hand, you loose your stack.. OK.. Ii think we all see that. We do not loose 10% of our BR. We loose only the 5% that we initially put on the table. In terms of BR loss its capped at the buyin amount. The fact that you have doubled up is incidental. You have entered a game that you are BR'ed for. You double up, but until it goes back into the BR, it is separate.

Another way of looking at it is this. You advocate playing only larger edges when the stack size increases. (QQ vs AK) was OK at 100BB, but 200BB you turn it down.

By that logic you are playing tighter as the stack increases.

Lets say you loose 50% of your stack.. now you have 50BB. Do you play wilder than before now you have less? Do you push smaller edges than before?

If you are tightening up through an increase in stack size then would you also loosen up through a decrease?

If that holds true then at least what you are saying is consistent. But if you now play SS strategy where you wait for quality hands and then shove, surely you are looking for large edge to push hard.

Really if what you are saying holds water then SS strategy should be looking to shove with very marginal hands, is that the way you see it?

A bankroll is not the total money that you have it is the money which is not in play. Once its in play it is not in your BR because it is a risk. Even if you shove with AA preflop, that money is at risk.

To pose a slightly different question.. if you multitable 20 tables and buy in each for 5% of your BR... is that good or bad BRM? If you view your BR as all available money then its fine. If you make the distinction between BR and stack.. then you are playing with 100% of your BR.
 
shinedown.45

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I may be wrong here, but regardless if it's a cash game or tourney, if I see the other player holds AK and he pushes me all-in, I'm calling with QQ, I would actually make the call with TT+.
In tourneys, I usually call an all-in with TT+ when I know the villian likes to push AK alot.
You can't simply fold QQ because you're afraid of the player hitting one of his 6 possible outs.
 
Y

yourguynow

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call, and then after the flop, if he does not hit, bet pot and show him your queens.
 
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yourguynow

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So how did you mathmatically figure that, or is there a calulator / program that you are using/
 
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Qutsemnie

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Yeah that would be scratch my head hard to do mathematically. I earn my living in school by programming in a statistical package called "R". It takes like a dozen lines in R to do.

Basically it amounts to making a sequence of +.1 and -.1 100 long in proportions dictated by the odds. You rample sample from that sequence 10000 times with replacement give you a vector of outcomes 10000 long. And then do a cumulative sum on the vector. If the cumulative sum ever hits -1.0 you went and busted your bank roll. I repeated that bout 10000 times in the cases .05 and .1 cases to get the proportion of times that you bust. There is a little bit of simulation variance in the result, but the theme of the answer of it being one power of 10 different in probability to bust is right.

Doing the math would be interesting, but I found this online thing called poker and I am trying to graduate with a MS in statistics this week lol.

I respect with Stu said, basically you were only gambling with what you bought in with =)~

The code looks like:

simulateAtSize = function(size){
outcomes = c(rep(size,56), rep(-size,44))
r = sample(outcomes, 10000, replace=TRUE)
cum = round(cumsum(r),2)
if(any(cum==-1.0)) return(1) #1 means busted
return(0)
}
#sim .1 over and over
nbusted = 0
nsims = 10000
for(i in 1:nsims) nbusted = nbusted + simulateAtSize(.1)
nbusted/nsims #.0871
#sim .05 over and over
nbusted = 0
nsims = 10000
for(i in 1:nsims) nbusted = nbusted + simulateAtSize(.05)
nbusted/nsims #.0082
 
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Q

Qutsemnie

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Had a buy in a micro table that made me think of this thread.

Called a preflop all in A7 with AK. I am winning 70 out of 100 times. I lose.

Called a preflop all in T7 with A5. I am winning 54 out of 100 times. I lose. (probably shouldn't have done this but this guy was just tossing money out there)

Called an all in from A7s with A6s after a 6J4 had flopped. I am winning 80 out of 100 times. (this guy was betting value when he had something. ) I lose.

All three were in bout 15 minutes.

Heres the deal though these all-ins were 1% of my tiny and easily replaced bank roll, and yet they still had an influence on my mindset. I don't even know how you semi-pro or medium stakes players can sleep at night after pushing 10% of your serious money in on bets that are no better.
 
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Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

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Had a buy in a micro table that made me think of this thread.

Called a preflop all in A7 with AK. I am winning 70 out of 100 times. I lose.

Called a preflop all in T7 with A5. I am winning 54 out of 100 times. I lose. (probably shouldn't have done this but this guy was just tossing money out there)

Called an all in from A7s with A6s after a 6J4 had flopped. I am winning 80 out of 100 times. (this guy was betting value when he had something. ) I lose.

All three were in bout 15 minutes.

Heres the deal though these all-ins were 1% of my tiny and easily replaced bank roll, and yet they still had an influence on my mindset. I don't even know how you semi-pro or medium stakes players can sleep at night after pushing 10% of your serious money in on bets that are no better.

You are going to have real difficulty passing these off as thin value calls unless you have some kind of insane reading ability.

T7 vs A5 .. how can you justifiy the call unless you are extremely shortstacked? His minimum range would have to be over 50% but in reality the gap effect means that sometimes he shoves with some hands in that 50% range that beat you... so his SHOVING range would have to be about 70%. Even then with someone shoving every other hand... you could wait for a better hand than A5

A7 vs AK... lucky here.. you dominated A7. As you called a shove you cant rule out high pocket pairs (which dominate you) As it turns out hewas shoving with a weak Ace. He needs a largish range for it to make sence, but with AK you are probably not that much of an underdog to a pair that its worth a flip. Loosing to A7 is unlucky.

A7 vs A6. I just dont see how you can call that unless stack sizes are small. Any way you look at it its second pair.. A low one at that. If the stacks are deep you have to be kind of insane to call.... if he is bluffing this easily then surely he will also bluff when you have a good hand.
 
JacksRwild63

JacksRwild63

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If ten percent of my stack has him covered, and Ive got any decent pocket pair in a ring game, its a no brainer
 
Wes747

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Shouldnt that be the other way around?

No...in the early stages of a tournament you are NOT looking for a coin flip. If you have QQ in early stages of a tournament and a goes all-in and flips over his AK, you do NOT want to call. The amount of chips you would gain if you doubled up is not worth risking your stack. I'm not very good at explaining this, but I know I have seen others post on this as well. Its not worth it to risk your buy-in.

Also, its "LOSE" not "LOOSE". Loose is the opposite of tight, lose is the opposite of win....
 
Stu_Ungar

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No...in the early stages of a tournament you are NOT looking for a coin flip. If you have QQ in early stages of a tournament and a goes all-in and flips over his AK, you do NOT want to call. The amount of chips you would gain if you doubled up is not worth risking your stack. I'm not very good at explaining this, but I know I have seen others post on this as well. Its not worth it to risk your buy-in.

Also, its "LOSE" not "LOOSE". Loose is the opposite of tight, lose is the opposite of win....


I dont really agree with that at all.

In the early stages of a big tournament with small blinds, big stacks and long levels.. yes play tight. i.e. wsop

But most small online tournaments <50 the stacks are small, the levels are short and the blinds incereas rapidly.

Within 20 mins most people find themselves playing SS.

So in the kind of tournament that most people are playing... coin flips with a slight +ev are adventagous. A couple of early doubleups will allow you the room to play skillfully when everyone else is forced to play through the blinds.

Towards the end, as the you near the money.. ICM starts to kick in and you have to not only look at a decision as +ev but also the risk to reward of going bust at that point.

Its pretty much the opposite advice of Harrington... which is written for big tournaments with blind structures that favor skill.

In a small tournament online.. you have to get lucky a few times before you can actually consider yourself in a position to out play people.

It really makes no odds if you go out on the first hand or in the first 3 hours.. if you dont give yourself an oppertunity to make it into the money then sitting back and waiting for premium hands is worse than gambling a bit until you have sufficient chips to give you some breathing room.
 
Snowmobiler

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I dont really agree with that at all.

In the early stages of a big tournament with small blinds, big stacks and long levels.. yes play tight. i.e. WSOP

But most small online tournaments <50 the stacks are small, the levels are short and the blinds incereas rapidly.

Within 20 mins most people find themselves playing SS.

So in the kind of tournament that most people are playing... coin flips with a slight +ev are adventagous. A couple of early doubleups will allow you the room to play skillfully when everyone else is forced to play through the blinds.

Towards the end, as the you near the money.. ICM starts to kick in and you have to not only look at a decision as +ev but also the risk to reward of going bust at that point.

Its pretty much the opposite advice of Harrington... which is written for big tournaments with blind structures that favor skill.

In a small tournament online.. you have to get lucky a few times before you can actually consider yourself in a position to out play people.

It really makes no odds if you go out on the first hand or in the first 3 hours.. if you dont give yourself an oppertunity to make it into the money then sitting back and waiting for premium hands is worse than gambling a bit until you have sufficient chips to give you some breathing room.


+1 :cool:
 
Bernard Pugi

Bernard Pugi

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Sometimes you get lucky sometimes not. Sorry I don't do maths. The guy's just trying to be careful. haha
 
anarchy304

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prime example.

Stacks:
BTN with 5665
SB with 5340
BB with 1795
UTG with 1200
UTG+1 with 825
MP1 with 1895
MP2 with 3110
CO with 7170



hand.pl

Blinds: 25/50
Site: pokerstars
Dealt to SB:8♠ Q♦
Preflop:
2 players fold.
MP1 calls [50]
1 players fold.
CO calls [50]
BTN raises 5615 to 5665 [ all-in ]
2 players fold.
MP1 calls [1845] [ all-in ]
CO calls [5615]
Total folds this street: 5
Potsize: 13300
Flop:
9♠ 10♦ 7♣
Potsize: 13300
Turn:
K♣
Potsize: 13300
River:
10♠
Results:
CO shows two pair, Queens and Tens:
Q♣ Q♠
BTN shows two pair, Kings and Tens:
K♠ A♣
BTN collected 7540 from side pot
MP1 shows two pair, Kings and Tens:
A♥ K♥
MP1 collected 2880 from main pot
BTN collected 2880 from main pot
 
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