c9h13no3
Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Bored at work again. Figured I'd kill some time writing about random micro-limit stuff.
One thing people don't tend to take into account is the betting patterns of their opponents at micro limits. However, we're dealing with very unsophisticated opponents at these levels, so there's a lot of information there for us to use.
In all the examples I make, assume $10 no limit cash games, and we're up against your average poor microstakes player (not a winning regular, or a super maniac). In tournaments, things are a bit different too, so I'm not sure if all of this advice applies.
Betting Pattern #1: Donk Leading
For an example of a donk lead:
=======================
C9 is dealt some cards, has a $10 stack, and is on the button.
Player 1 has a $10 stack, and is in middle position.
Preflop:
Folds to Player 1, Player 1 calls $0.1. Folds to C9.
C9 Raises to $0.55, other players fold, Player 1 calls.
Flop: *Imagine a Flop, Any Flop*
Player 1 bets $0.1 into $1.25.
=======================
This "donk lead", sometimes called a "probe bet", is seen *constantly* at microstakes. And in my experience it means the following, in order of likelyhood:
1) A very weak made hand. Mid-pair or less.
2) A draw, usually a bad one. Gutshots are a big part of their range here.
3) Top pair with a very poor kicker.
4) A monster that hopes you will raise.
Notice that the first 3 catagories are not strong, as this is key. A donk lead is usually weaker than a check. Newbies do this "for information". They don't want to check because they have a hand of some sort, and they figure they can bet the minimum, to "see where they're at".
So in general, I raise these bets fairly largish when I have nothing, I raise whatever I think they'll call when I have a big hand, and when I have a mediocre hand like mid pair, I'll just call down.
Betting Pattern #2: Betting Full Pot, Quickly
Example:
=======================
C9 is dealt some cards, has a $10 stack, and is on the button.
Player 1 has a $10 stack, and is in middle position.
Preflop:
Folds to Player 1, Player 1 calls $0.1. Folds to C9.
C9 Raises to $0.55, other players fold, Player 1 calls.
Flop:
After 0.1 seconds, Player 1 bets $1.25. C9 calls $1.25.
Turn:
After 0.01 seconds, Player 1 bets $3.75. C9 calls $3.75.
=======================
A fast, pot-sized bet (especially on a site with a bet pot button) usually means that your opponent is bluffing, especially on dry boards like this one.
Think about it:
1) Opponents think for a long time when they have a big hand. They want to play it correctly. They rarely just instantly spit out a pot-sized bet. And often at micro-limits, opponents will slowplay if they have a 5 like in the example above, or a set, or some other big hand.
2) Your opponents at these stakes are likely to try and bet an amount they think you can call if they have a big hand. So these bets tend to be less than full pot (or much more), and typed out. Even if your opponents think you can call a full pot bet, they will often type out slightly less than full pot, to make their bet seem smaller to you if they have a big hand.
3) Your micro limit opponents don't bluff often. Its something new they're trying out that they saw on TV. They might be fed up with your aggressive play, or just think its so unlikely that you have a real hand. But in either case, their thought process isn't very complicated when they bluff. So hence, you end up with very fast, very scary bets when your opponent is bluffing.
Now don't try this on very drawy boards. Sometimes your opponent will be smacking the bet pot button just because he is paranoid that you'll draw out. Additionally, they could be semi-bluffing, which makes calling down on a drawy board less successful (since they'll often hit their draw).
But in conclusion, big fast bets tend to be bluffs.
Betting Pattern #3: Min-Raising on the flop
Example:
=======================
C9 is dealt some cards, has a $10 stack, and is on the button.
Player 1 has a $10 stack, and is in middle position.
Preflop:
Folds to Player 1, Player 1 calls $0.1. Folds to C9.
C9 Raises to $0.55, other players fold, Player 1 calls.
Flop:
Player 1 checks. C9 bets $0.85. Player 1 raises to $1.70.
=======================
Min-raising can mean an aweful lot of things, but in my experience they are as follows:
1) Our opponent has a HUGE hand, and really wants you to call.
2) Our opponent thinks its very unlikely that we hit the flop, and sucks at bluffing.
3) Our opponent has a hand like top pair no kicker, is bad, and is raising for information to "see where he stands".
#2 probably won't happen on a board like the one in the example. These tend to happen more on flops like 962 rainbow, or 227.
And #3 is pretty rare. I'll see it once in a blue moon or so, but the majority of these min-raises are bad news for you.
However, don't dispair. Your opponents, in their badness, are offering you awesome implied odds & pot odds. So if you have a draw to a big hand of any sort, call!
For example, lets say we're holding in the example above. We're getting 4.5:1 pot odds on our call. So even though we only have a gutshot draw (11.5:1), I'd advocate calling here. Because when we call and miss, we lose $0.85, but when we hit, we're usually taking our opponent's entire stack, or the $7.75 they have left. Here's the math:
Winning = +$12.40
Losing = -$0.85
expected value of Calling = (12.4*0.08) - (0.85*0.92) = 0.992 - 0.782 = +$0.21.
So if our opponent has a big hand, and you can take his entire stack when you hit your draw, this becomes a winning play. In order for our call to become profitable, we need to take an additional $5.13 out of our opponent when we make our straight. Which is usually quite do-able, since 1 pot-sized bet is $4.65.
So yeah, its 10:20 PM, and I'm still at work. I'm gonna go home. I appreciate any discussion you guys have to offer!
One thing people don't tend to take into account is the betting patterns of their opponents at micro limits. However, we're dealing with very unsophisticated opponents at these levels, so there's a lot of information there for us to use.
In all the examples I make, assume $10 no limit cash games, and we're up against your average poor microstakes player (not a winning regular, or a super maniac). In tournaments, things are a bit different too, so I'm not sure if all of this advice applies.
Betting Pattern #1: Donk Leading
For an example of a donk lead:
=======================
C9 is dealt some cards, has a $10 stack, and is on the button.
Player 1 has a $10 stack, and is in middle position.
Preflop:
Folds to Player 1, Player 1 calls $0.1. Folds to C9.
C9 Raises to $0.55, other players fold, Player 1 calls.
Flop: *Imagine a Flop, Any Flop*
Player 1 bets $0.1 into $1.25.
=======================
This "donk lead", sometimes called a "probe bet", is seen *constantly* at microstakes. And in my experience it means the following, in order of likelyhood:
1) A very weak made hand. Mid-pair or less.
2) A draw, usually a bad one. Gutshots are a big part of their range here.
3) Top pair with a very poor kicker.
4) A monster that hopes you will raise.
Notice that the first 3 catagories are not strong, as this is key. A donk lead is usually weaker than a check. Newbies do this "for information". They don't want to check because they have a hand of some sort, and they figure they can bet the minimum, to "see where they're at".
So in general, I raise these bets fairly largish when I have nothing, I raise whatever I think they'll call when I have a big hand, and when I have a mediocre hand like mid pair, I'll just call down.
Betting Pattern #2: Betting Full Pot, Quickly
Example:
=======================
C9 is dealt some cards, has a $10 stack, and is on the button.
Player 1 has a $10 stack, and is in middle position.
Preflop:
Folds to Player 1, Player 1 calls $0.1. Folds to C9.
C9 Raises to $0.55, other players fold, Player 1 calls.
Flop:
After 0.1 seconds, Player 1 bets $1.25. C9 calls $1.25.
Turn:
After 0.01 seconds, Player 1 bets $3.75. C9 calls $3.75.
=======================
A fast, pot-sized bet (especially on a site with a bet pot button) usually means that your opponent is bluffing, especially on dry boards like this one.
Think about it:
1) Opponents think for a long time when they have a big hand. They want to play it correctly. They rarely just instantly spit out a pot-sized bet. And often at micro-limits, opponents will slowplay if they have a 5 like in the example above, or a set, or some other big hand.
2) Your opponents at these stakes are likely to try and bet an amount they think you can call if they have a big hand. So these bets tend to be less than full pot (or much more), and typed out. Even if your opponents think you can call a full pot bet, they will often type out slightly less than full pot, to make their bet seem smaller to you if they have a big hand.
3) Your micro limit opponents don't bluff often. Its something new they're trying out that they saw on TV. They might be fed up with your aggressive play, or just think its so unlikely that you have a real hand. But in either case, their thought process isn't very complicated when they bluff. So hence, you end up with very fast, very scary bets when your opponent is bluffing.
Now don't try this on very drawy boards. Sometimes your opponent will be smacking the bet pot button just because he is paranoid that you'll draw out. Additionally, they could be semi-bluffing, which makes calling down on a drawy board less successful (since they'll often hit their draw).
But in conclusion, big fast bets tend to be bluffs.
Betting Pattern #3: Min-Raising on the flop
Example:
=======================
C9 is dealt some cards, has a $10 stack, and is on the button.
Player 1 has a $10 stack, and is in middle position.
Preflop:
Folds to Player 1, Player 1 calls $0.1. Folds to C9.
C9 Raises to $0.55, other players fold, Player 1 calls.
Flop:
Player 1 checks. C9 bets $0.85. Player 1 raises to $1.70.
=======================
Min-raising can mean an aweful lot of things, but in my experience they are as follows:
1) Our opponent has a HUGE hand, and really wants you to call.
2) Our opponent thinks its very unlikely that we hit the flop, and sucks at bluffing.
3) Our opponent has a hand like top pair no kicker, is bad, and is raising for information to "see where he stands".
#2 probably won't happen on a board like the one in the example. These tend to happen more on flops like 962 rainbow, or 227.
And #3 is pretty rare. I'll see it once in a blue moon or so, but the majority of these min-raises are bad news for you.
However, don't dispair. Your opponents, in their badness, are offering you awesome implied odds & pot odds. So if you have a draw to a big hand of any sort, call!
For example, lets say we're holding
in the example above. We're getting 4.5:1 pot odds on our call. So even though we only have a gutshot draw (11.5:1), I'd advocate calling here. Because when we call and miss, we lose $0.85, but when we hit, we're usually taking our opponent's entire stack, or the $7.75 they have left. Here's the math:Winning = +$12.40
Losing = -$0.85
expected value of Calling = (12.4*0.08) - (0.85*0.92) = 0.992 - 0.782 = +$0.21.
So if our opponent has a big hand, and you can take his entire stack when you hit your draw, this becomes a winning play. In order for our call to become profitable, we need to take an additional $5.13 out of our opponent when we make our straight. Which is usually quite do-able, since 1 pot-sized bet is $4.65.
So yeah, its 10:20 PM, and I'm still at work. I'm gonna go home. I appreciate any discussion you guys have to offer!
