A brief study in AA, AX, as starting values

[baudib]

Do you guys feel you should raise or try to limp in (maybe call a small raise) with suited Aces jacks or lower.


Seems that AJ is a really overplayed hand. It's a good hand to steal the blinds with late in a tourney or as a desperation hand looking to double up. But in general it's a pretty overrated card heads up. Any pocket pair is a decent favorite of course and you're dominated by AQ, AK.

Is it accurate to say that the best way to maximize it is to use it as a drawing hand? If you hit your flush, of course you want lots of people in the pot. If you raise big, you are only inviting trouble from stronger hands. But in an unraised pot or a pot with a small raise, you let in the weak aces that you will probably outkick as well as the inferior connectors. It's not often that a pair of jacks will win a hand, but for that to happen, you want J10s in there with you so you can get them to pay you.

Does this make sense or am I totally off base?

 

[Bill_Hollorian]

It is a huge trouble hand for most. People see the two primary power cards, and think it is solid. This hand requires improvement, but an overwhelming majority of flops will improve this hand to the second best hand... meaning you lose. Late postion, open the pot for a raise, try to get the blinds, if not your playable in postion against the blind(s). middle postion probably not playable. early postion mucking is a good play.

In a tournament it is a good hand to double through with if your looking for 2 cards to play.

So, no not off base at all.
If isolated against j,10,s you are 3 to 1. Not bad, if you can get an opponent to play j,10s out of postion against just you. Most are looking for a few players to come along, so it may not be too easy. If he is willing to play just you, you have to put him on a better hand.

Excellent post Baudib!
Bill

 

[bluffking21]

Great post..... aa is the best

 

[stephan]

I dont think AA is so good .. i lost many hands with AA ... i won more with J 10 or Q 10. QQ or JJ are my preferred hand. Almost never lost with them.

 

[Bill_Hollorian]

You don't think that AA is a good starting hand? I am looking though this thread to reorganize it into an article. May I quote you on that?

See how you hate the hand, and I love it... And you love J,10s,

Here is my deal, I will play AA, vs. your J,10s 1000 times for $1. No folds. We just deal the flop,rurn and river. When my AA stands up you pay me a dollar. When your J10 wins I pay you a dollar.

What do you say?

Bill

 

[twizzybop]

No not at all Bill. You got "our" understanding of the J,10 or the 9,10.

 

[vu-doo]

very well put . especially the A9,A8,A7,A6 bit.
i agree with that. don't tell everybody that though. i like to see people make mistakes and overvalue there hands .

 

[Freakakanus]

I was a victim of the 71% factor today....me=AA (all in pre flop) caller #1=QQ, caller number #2=KJ (suited). Felt nervous when a Q came on flop, better when an A came on the turn, and pissed when a heart came on the river giving Mr. KJ a flush! Jackass shouldn't have called in the first place but said he had a "feeling". ARGH!

 

[t1riel]

I've been playing Ax lately and haven't had much success with it. This is a great tool for any player and very useful. This was posted a long time ago and I don't know how i missed it before. For many, it deserves a second look.

 

[ruffcut68]

Seeking Math tutorial ...love the math got any more info. Thanks

 

[Kenzie 96]

Thanks for another great post Bill. No suprise but I had totally overlooked the added value of the A3 & A4. The more I learn the the less I know; no wonder I enjoy this game so much.

 

[Bill_Hollorian]

I am now revising Ax suited and will advocate playing all of them, in limit games 4-8 and lower, 1-2 baby no limit, and 2-5 baby no limit. 5-10 and higher no limit, my original statements apply.

The logic behind this shift in strategy is that A7, A8, etc. SHOULD usually not be able to get paid off sufficiently when you make a flush. In the smaller games they do get paid off, due to the nature of the players in the game.
Flushes are still too obvious in the bigger games, so you need stronger starting values, additional straight outs,etc.

Strategy for the AX suited in the smaller games. If heads up opponent needs at least 50 Big Blinds, and you need to feel reasonably sure he will stack off if you hit.
Go ahead and start building a pot, so a commitment to the pot is perceived by your opponent when you finally improve to the nut flush. Also, giving you steal possibilites at every street.

This revision although it shouldnt be, is now profitable in the games above.
A6-A9 is still negative long term in bigger games, unless you have information other than math to go on, (identify particularly weak players, etc.)

-Bill

 

[joshyb20]

I think that's not very important bcz it depends of your luck... why are you interesting in knowing what can you catch? Is't luck...

When playing to win money at poker (which if you aren't playing to win money, please sit at my table ) your goal is to get maximum gain while minimizing your losses. If you get the feal that you are losing the hand, or if you feel that you are winning the hand, you need to know the odds of you either catching a card to take the lead or for you opponent to do the same respectively. A very simple example. You have AQ. The flop comes J 10 9. Your opponent makes a very strong bet and you buy into that he played either KQ, Q8, or even 7 8 and therefore has the lead in the hand. You are debating whether or not to call or raise or just fold. You look at your hand, the only way for you to win or split the pot would be to either catch an 8 or a K. Q or A or any other card would do you no good if lets say there is no hope for a flush. However, if an 8 falls you have a straight and split, and if a K falls you have the nut straight and win the pot. You have put your opponent on one of the three combos, all containing one of your "outs", or cards that would save you, so there is one "out" that you can eliminate. There are still 3 Ks not accounted for if he were on KQ and 4 8s. That leaves you with 7 outs. Do you want to call that big bet knowing that you have to catch one of only 7 cards that can save you with only two chances? The knowledge of the math involved gives you an edge because you now know your odds. To the beginner poker player there is a lot of luck involved, but as you progress, you will find less and less is left to chance. I didn't want to get in too deep, but I'm sure you can find a lot more on this very subject throughout the forum. Run a search for odds or odds calculation or something along the lines. There are definitely more qualified people to speek on this matter than I, but that should be sufficient to give you some level of understanding of why odds and math are important.

 

[chipslap u]

Great post

good discussion.....I try and avoid A2 like the plague but will play it from the button if I think I can buy the hand or if I'm the bb and get a cheap flop.....I also avoid A5 as for a gapped str8 draw it' the worst possible str8 you can get and as for A10 a 4 gap draw is horrible any way but I will limp this to hit a flop.....a anything in between is butt for the most part unless you're heads up and at 4 or fewer players on a table....never looked at the A4 that way but it does seem usable.....as for the guy that relies solely on luck...hey I agree luck is a huge part of poker but you can minimize your losses to dumbluck by knowing the odds and pushing your hands into favorable situations where the suckout artists get the worst possible price for their draws and they will more often than not lose.......when they hit they hit that's the curse of the landmines of poker but they never win........if you hate having your aces cracked make your moves when the blinds go up these suckout goofballs big stacks disappear as fast as they do when their draws cost them a large percentage of their stack to play.....but that's just my opinion