A brief study in AA, AX, as starting values

[Bill_Hollorian]

AA, maximum ev is heads up. Should win 85% against 1 opponent. 71% with 2 opponents. 62% against 3 opponents. No better than a coin flip against 4 players.

AKs, Never has as large of an edge as AA, but stands up well heads up, and multi-way.

AQ, a bit of trouble from early and mid positions. Marginally playable late. The **Ace on the flop deilemna begins to become a concern.** and is less than 50 percent against 2 opponents.

AJ, A10, Trouble hands, playable, but trouble. If you don't flop really really strong, consider a bluff or dump.

A9,A8,A7A6, basically garbage. You are losing straight possibilites, reducing your outs to long term -ev. Hit your A, kicker trouble. Hit your other card, youve got a grabage pair.

A5 Big Trouble. Due to the fact that if your flop arrives to a perfect straight(234) You could lose to the (5,6), an entirely playable hand for many.

(A,4) Uniquely playable. A few callers and this hand has good improvement capabilities. If it suited even better. A small raise should protect against the (4,6) higher straight. A pre flop raise will get almost any one off of (4,6) makeing your straight the nuts if it hits.
A,3 The same as A4 uniquely playable, but avoid the pre flop raise.
A,2 garabage. You straight will be garbage if you make it.

A unique situation arrives when there is an A on the flop, there is always a syncronized flop matrix. So watch out, when your AA, improves to trips.


Bill
www.pokerprosvsearth.com

Bill

 

[tazztaz]

Realy good post ! I like the A4 thinking. Pre flop is the most important stage of most every hand. After the flop you have seen 2 thirds of your cards and should be able know , or feel just the right moves!

 

[ChuckTs]

very interesting
i've never thought of A4 that way

a quick question;

how do you calculate the probablility of hands preflop like that?

ex. AA - X% vs. 3ppl and Y% vs. 2

are you using charts or did you calculate it yourself?
just curious

 

[Bill_Hollorian]

very interesting
i've never thought of A4 that way

a quick question;

how do you calculate the probablility of hands preflop like that?

ex. AA - X% vs. 3ppl and Y% vs. 2

are you using charts or did you calculate it yourself?
just curious

Do you love math? Here goes:
The probability of getting AA is determined as follows:
1> There are 4 Aces, and 52 unseen cards.= 4/52
2.) Next there are 3 Aces, and 51 unseen cards= 3/52
3.) Multiply them 4/52*3/51 = 12/2652 reduced = 1/221

Flop detertminations get complicated, but Ill show it if you want.

I find this math very important does anyone else?

Bill

 

[GsmVortex]

I find this math very important does anyone else?

I think that's not very important bcz it depends of your luck... why are you interesting in knowing what can you catch? Is't luck...

 

[Crippler450]

Do you love math? Here goes:
The probability of getting AA is determined as follows:
1> There are 4 Aces, and 52 unseen cards.= 4/52
2.) Next there are 3 Aces, and 51 unseen cards= 3/52
3.) Multiply them 4/52*3/51 = 12/2652 reduced = 1/221

Flop detertminations get complicated, but Ill show it if you want.

I find this math very important does anyone else?

Bill

He doesnt mean the % of getting AA, He means your % chance of winning against 2, 3, 4 etc players before the flop.

 

[Bill_Hollorian]

In order to answer how a hand holds up against 1, 2 or many opponents, you must first answer flopcombinations. Here goes,

Determine total possible flop combinations: 3 cards on the flop, 50 unseen cards
Math 50*49*48/3*2*1= 117600/6= 19600 total possible flops.
to next calcualte turn and river there is now 2 cards (1 turn, 1 river)and 47 unssen cards.
Math 47*46/2*1= 1081 total turn river combinations.
But holdem is a best of 7 game. Making it even more complex. But we won't go into that right now.
Now using outs and douts you determine how many of the above flop combinations are favorable to you.
Next, put a ratio of favorable/unfavorable flop, turn and river combinations together.

This math just gets stupid from here.

You now compare your starting holding against all of the outs of all starting values. Excluding those that your outs, divide by the number of opponents and that will give you a decent idea of where you stand.

I will try to expand on that last paragraph later I gotta go eat.

Bill

 

[dydig]

Very nice post. Thank you for doing the math .

/dydig

 

[ChuckTs]

combinations and permutations and factorial and all that lol
god im glad i stayed in at least half my data management classes...this may seem like jibberish to some but it actually makes sense to me
thnx Bill; good info

 

[colin_147]

Nice post Bill. I am pretty good on the math side but I find now that I judge my hand on instinct and if I feel I can hit. I will judge on the flop cards, chances of straight/flush draws for my opponents etc

I do the math as well but after a while I kinda knew the outs and the chances of me hitting, as after hundreds of thousands of hands, you should have a pretty good idea of the mathematical chance of hitting your cards

I mean who would not call an all-in raise post-flop with a 4 flush, even though the chances of hitting is around 35%? If someone told players the chances of them losing their money is 65% if they call, most would prob fold

 

[Geo2124]

i dont really like getting any pp execpt AA. I always end up lossing with KK because people always come in with an ace and thay always seem to get lucky when im goldin a big hand.

 

[twizzybop]

I like this Bill but you forgot one thing to mention.. The A(X) suited.. From AK all the way down to ace2 suited. Cause they do have well good intentions of hitting the nut flush.

 

[robwhufc]

A,3 The same as A4 uniquely playable, but avoid the pre flop raise.
http://www.pokerprosvsearth.com/

Great post Bill, but i'm such a pedant I can't let this sentance go. Two hands "uniquely" playable? I know what you meant though (and I never realised added value of A3 + A4 over A5 and up).

 

[Bill_Hollorian]

Well, I wish I could do this type of math in the heat of battle, at the poker able. I do try to do a dumbed down version, and with the outs and stuff I shotgun them, because that math is crucial. All hands do go up in value when suited. However, a flush and a straight draw, is better than just a flush draw. as is the case with A,6,A7,A8,A9.
The A on the flop delemna supercedes the playablility of the A6,A7,A8,A9 even suited. These are traps suited or unsuited. Whenever you improve to a ste there is a 1 in three somone improved to a straight draw.

* if an A is flopped there is ALWAYS a straight draw. This is the matrix issue referred to earlier. Your set will lose to a sraight, and you will lose a ton of cash when it happens. It's the A on the flop dilemna.

Thanks for adding to the study. No one will play A better than cardschat members when we are done. lol
Bill

 

[lovethemile]

I am in awe of your math/poker expertise here Bill... What is about A4 that really makes it so special? I think I know what you are getting at but please clarify... Thanks...

 

[Bill_Hollorian]

Well, don't get me wrong, I don't jump for joy when I see an A4 suited. But it is a pos ev hand. See, heres the thing.
The flush hits its gonna be good. If you make a raise preflop people playing 46 should fold, even idiots will fold 46 usually. That is the only hand tha can make a bigger straight if you happen to hit perfect straight (235). So, your straight should be good should you hit it, using both cards. Folks will play 56 suited so if you have A5 and you hit your straight, he has a better one. but in the A4 raise scenario you should improve to the nut straight because a 46 is too hard to play for even the worst players when confronted with a raise. Ao now your flush draw is to the nuts, and your striaght is to the nuts. Not bad. it is a decent starting hand sort of...

Take an ace out of a deck and deal 2 other cards. No matter what the other 2 cards are there is always a way to have a straight draw that only requires 1 more card. Folks are always surprised when they have AA and it improves to a set, just to get beat by a straight. Seriously try it. It will show the an underlying matrix to flopped cards.

Bill

 

[lovethemile]

Thanks for the help Bill... That makes a lot of sense and I will definitely keep that in the back of my mind from now on...

 

[Bill_Hollorian]

Followup: What hand is the mostly likely to crack Aces heads up, and why?

 

[lovethemile]

To be honest I have gotten busted by pocket low pairs numerous times. Also, suited connectors sometimes get the kill too for a low straight. Is there actually a statistical hand that can beat AA the majority of the time?

 

[Bill_Hollorian]

Well not a majority of the time. But hands most likely to beat AA is maximum reach suited connectors.
56,67,78,89,910,10j, all suited. These are the best hands to hold when up against AA.
You don't win a majority of the time, but it is the best shot you have.

 

[Godfather7769]

sorry guys, but i think most of you are wrong. You should read Andy Holway's book on how to be a Poker Champ, very informative, right on the money

 

[Bill_Hollorian]

Excellent point! Very insightful, and with those supporting arguments, I'll have to change my postion on things.

I looked up all of you r posts. You are a freeroll whore.

Wow... enjoy the freeroll.

Bill

 

[twizzybop]

Actually bill the 9,10 and the Jack, 10 are the best to bust AA. Reason why is because the 10 itself is part of a run.. from the 6,7,8,9,10 and the 10,J,Q,K,A

Same with a 5.. it is a finish and start of a straight.

 

[baudib]

I love A10, AJ for straight possibilities.

I know the pot odds are probably not in favor of it, but sometimes I will pay to see the turn if the flop is KQ x. because you will absolutely bust someone if you hit the straight if they're playing KQ or slow-playing QQs.

 

[Bill_Hollorian]

Hi Twizzybop,
The hands mentioned are maximum reach connectors. Using both cards they can make more straights than the rest. The J,10 and 9,10 fit this category of maximum reach. Against specifically A,A they all have an equal shot of busting them, unless I'm missing your meaning, if so Im sorry please expand.

Bill