Should I Just Fold?

royalburrito24

royalburrito24

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Playing a little .05/.10 NL Ring and came across a weird hand...

dealt a couple of black sixes in middle position, and decide to make a .30 raise, no read on villain, who raises to $1

Should I just fold it or should I try to see a flop?

full tilt poker Game #4442856287: Table Snow Trail - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 4:49:54 ET - 2007/12/09
Seat 1: R4ph4 ($10.40)
Seat 2: icheckraiseyou ($10.35)
Seat 3: royalburrito24 ($4.80)
Seat 4: i9nite ($9.90)
Seat 5: BassenBWFC ($0), is sitting out
Seat 6: MikeDtoughguy ($7.60), is sitting out
Seat 7: Kilthix ($19.75)
Seat 8: soccerfreakjj10 ($5.15)
Seat 9: Tokorho ($11.60)
MikeDtoughguy stands up
Kilthix posts the small blind of $0.05
soccerfreakjj10 has 5 seconds left to act
soccerfreakjj10 posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to royalburrito24 [6c 6s]
BassenBWFC stands up
Tokorho folds
R4ph4 folds
Dubbly sits down
icheckraiseyou folds
Dubbly adds $2
proxypp sits down
Dubbly is sitting out
proxypp adds $10
royalburrito24 raises to $0.30
i9nite folds
Kilthix folds
soccerfreakjj10 has 15 seconds left to act
soccerfreakjj10 raises to $1
royalburrito24 ???
 
zachvac

zachvac

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Yes. Even if when you set you stack him you don't make enough to justify the call. Even if you are ahead now (AK maybe), you don't know that. Just fold here.
 
D

DrRaleigh

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It depends on what your stack looks like. If you can afford it, make the call. There's a decent chance he was raising with AK/AQ suited or something similar just to get you off the hand and steal the blinds. Personally, I would at least want to see a flop, because unless he has a higher pp your chances of winning the hand are going to be better than 50/50.
 
zachvac

zachvac

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It depends on what your stack looks like. If you can afford it, make the call. There's a decent chance he was raising with AK/AQ suited or something similar just to get you off the hand and steal the blinds. Personally, I would at least want to see a flop, because unless he has a higher pp your chances of winning the hand are going to be better than 50/50.

It's given, 4.80, so if he calls most he wins is 3.80.

What happens when the flop comes Q92? If he has AK you're ahead, but you don't know that.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Easy fold considering effective stack sizes. Like zach said we're not getting immediate or implied odds here.
 
jaketrevvor

jaketrevvor

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Yep, basically you can only play this for set value and you're not getting the odds given your stack size as said above.
 
Stick66

Stick66

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You need a bigger pot and possibly more players in it to call here. The pot odds are only 2-1. You are 7.5-1 to flop a set and 4-1 to hit by the river.

Fold and top up your stack.
 
soccerfreakjj10

soccerfreakjj10

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MUAHAHAHHAHAHAHA

What burrito did was he called and I (the villain) felted him. Poor guy...

Burrito is one of my best friends and we talk poker strategy all day every day. A little playful banter here... :)

Full Tilt poker game #4442856287: Table Snow Trail - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 4:49:54 ET - 2007/12/09
Seat 1: R4ph4 ($10.40)
Seat 2: icheckraiseyou ($10.35)
Seat 3: royalburrito24 ($4.80)
Seat 4: i9nite ($9.90)
Seat 5: BassenBWFC ($0), is sitting out
Seat 6: MikeDtoughguy ($7.60), is sitting out
Seat 7: Kilthix ($19.75)
Seat 8: soccerfreakjj10 ($5.15)
Seat 9: Tokorho ($11.60)
MikeDtoughguy stands up
Kilthix posts the small blind of $0.05
soccerfreakjj10 posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to soccerfreakjj10 [Kc Kh]
Tokorho folds
R4ph4 folds
icheckraiseyou folds
proxypp sits down
Dubbly is sitting out
proxypp adds $10
royalburrito24 raises to $0.30
i9nite folds
Kilthix folds
soccerfreakjj10 raises to $1
royalburrito24 calls $0.70
*** FLOP *** [9h 3h Th]
soccerfreakjj10 bets $0.80
royalburrito24 raises to $3.80, and is all in
soccerfreakjj10 calls $3
royalburrito24 shows [6c 6s]
soccerfreakjj10 shows [Kc Kh]
*** TURN *** [9h 3h Th] [8s]
*** RIVER *** [9h 3h Th 8s] [2d]
royalburrito24 shows a pair of Sixes
soccerfreakjj10 shows a pair of Kings
soccerfreakjj10 wins the pot ($8.70) with a pair of Kings
royalburrito24 is sitting out
 
shinedown.45

shinedown.45

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When holding a low PP and you want to play it for set value, the advice I had been given when playing for set value is that dont put more than 5%(I think this was right) of your stack into the pot.
 
soccerfreakjj10

soccerfreakjj10

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hmmmm... i would say that latter part is actually 'a good read'. "he can be doing anything because he (thinks he) knows me" is rather valid, no?

lol i believe burrito told a little fib here!

I think it was the fact that he knew me that caused him to make the call, and the subsequent reraise all in.

We both love to outplay each other, and he probably put me on some sort of elaborate bluff because of the sheer fact that it was me.
 
Four Dogs

Four Dogs

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2:1 PO's. Just call, but don't get too carried away. It's got some showdown value. If the board texture is right (no pictures) and if you think your opp might steal, call a small river bet.
 
GunslingerZ

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Personally, I would at least want to see a flop, because unless he has a higher pp your chances of winning the hand are going to be better than 50/50.
This is only if all the money goes in pre-flop and you get to see all five cards. If you just call, and you don't hit a set on the flop, you won't know if any overcards hit your opponent (or if he has a higher pocket pair or not), and it will be difficult to continue the hand.
 
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switch0723

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i probably would have called pre flop, not for set value, but thinking about maybe holding the best hand and look to outplay. I would re raise on flop, but fold to the re raise he would make, putting him on a higher pair than your own. Don't think there was any need to spontainiously (spelling) shove.
 
GunslingerZ

GunslingerZ

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i probably would have called pre flop, not for set value, but thinking about maybe holding the best hand and look to outplay. I would re raise on flop, but fold to the re raise he would make, putting him on a higher pair than your own.
If the OP calls pre-flop, then the pot will be $2 and he will have only $3.80 left in his stack. If he raises any flop bet, his only choice will be to push. He certainly couldn't fold to a flop 3-bet.
 
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switch0723

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there is no such thing to pot commited. He can raise get the reraise then fold sicne he would be losing. Even if he folds and leaves himself with 50 cents, thats more than the 0 he leaves by pushing all in. If he gets aces next hand and double up, then flops the nuts hand after that, suddenly he is back up to about 2$ and can play again
 
beechleaf

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with that flop you should have layed it down with too overs out there and only a runner runner draw ftp is famous for pp always becareful
 
soccerfreakjj10

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there is no such thing to pot commited. He can raise get the reraise then fold sicne he would be losing. Even if he folds and leaves himself with 50 cents, thats more than the 0 he leaves by pushing all in. If he gets aces next hand and double up, then flops the nuts hand after that, suddenly he is back up to about 2$ and can play again

I strongly disagree with this assertion!

Although in tournament play this assertion of "no such thing as pot commitment" is closer to being true, in a cash game it is a KEY CONCEPT.

Take the following example in tournament play: it is 6-handed with 5,000/10,000 blinds (no antes for easy math) and after posting you have 40,000 chips left in your stack (Stacks range from 2bb to 8bbs). You are in the big blind, and everybody folds to the button who pushes all in with 20,000 chips. You look down at 6 2 off suit. Although mathematically you are being offered 25,000 (25,000/10,000 odds to call (over 2.5/1 odds,) I argue that "pot commitment" should be disregarded here, even though you would have a positive cEV to call nearly any two cards the villain has! I think this because you likely will leave yourself in a situation where you will have only about 30,000 left in chips. Since fold equity is such a huge part of end game play, your next push will give the bb 35,000/20,000 pot odds to call (nearly 2 to 1 obv)! this is a fairly automatic call for most players with nearly any two cards! If, on the other hand you had folded instead of calling the raise, you would have been left with 40,000 chips, giving your next push 45,000 /30,000 odds to call (1.5/1.) This slight difference in chip stack will significantly increase your FE on your next push, dramatically increasing the chance that the BB will be priced in to call. Thus, pot commitment is not an essential principle in tournament poker.

IN CASH GAMES THIS IS TOTALLY DIFFERENT!!!!

Cash games are completely based on pot odds and percentage to win the hand! You always need to pay attention to the odds being offered compared to where you think you stand (or more appropriately, compared to where you stand against all the hands your opponent could possibly be holding.) To take the given example, taken hypothetically with your advice:

With 2 dollars in the pot, the flop comes 10h 9h 3h . Stacks at this point are $4.15 for the villain, and $3.80 for the pocket 6 hero. Opponent bets out 80 cents, hero raises to $2.4, leaving him with $1.4 left in stack with his pocket sixes. Opponent reraises all in. At this point there is 8.2/ 1.4 (nearly 6/1 pot odds.) With these odds one merely needs a 17 percent chance of winning the hand to call. Although it turns out the hero only had a 5% chance to win, there are other possible hands that the villain could have besides the KK with flush draw. For example overpair with no heart where it is a 9% chance for the 66 to win. Also just a high heart for the flush draw is the most important possibility! Against AK of hearts the hero is nearly a coinflip to win the entire hand!

Now once this information is calculated with the likelihood an opponent has the hands listed previously, a call is the correct play. I would say that the opponent has a 40 percent chance of overpair with no heart 20 percent change of having overpair with heart, 25 percent chance of having only a flush draw with no pair, 10 percent chance of having flopped a flush, and a 5 percent chance of the opponent having either an underpair or is completely bluffing.

.5 percent chance of having overpair with no flush draw multiplied by .1 (chance of winning) = .05

.2 percent chance of having overpair with with flush draw multiplied by .05 (chance of winning) = .01

.25 percent chance of having flush draw with overcards multiplied by .5 (chance of winning) = .125

.1 percent chance of having flopped flush = 0 (drawing dead)

.05 chance of a complete bluff or underpair multiplied by .75 (chance of winning with underpair) = .0375

add (.05 + .01 + .125 + .0375) = .222

.222 > .17 A call here will have a + expected value in the long run providing the percentages one assigns to each hand are fairly accurate. My percentages were done quickly, so the odds of the opponent having stronger hands could potentially be higher than I estimated, but my analysis didn't even factor in the chance of splitting the pot with a flush! Also .22 is significantly greater than .17, making the call the mathematically correct decision. THEREFORE THERE IS SUCH THING AS POT COMMITMENT.

The reason why one can rely solely on math in a cash game and not a tournament is that if you get felted in a cash game, you can always reload your chips!
 
soccerfreakjj10

soccerfreakjj10

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wow that took a long time...

I hope it makes sense :/

I felt the need to defend pot commitment! :)
 
GunslingerZ

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Thank you, iwouldprefernotto, your post makes perfect sense, it is an excellent explanation.

switch0723, I know I'm new to these forums and I mean no disrespect, but your post above is really horrible advice for a no-limit cash game. For the OP to put in as much of his stack as you suggest and then fold would have a massive negative expectation in the long run.
 
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switch0723

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no worries no disrespect taken. I thought this was a tourny hand not a ring game so my mistake. Ive even posted somewhere else about maths and pot odds being hte most important thing in cash poker. Even posted a big post about how if you cant work out pot odds, cash games will be a lot more difficult.

Since i was thinking this was a tourny, if the OP is changed to a tourny hand then i will stand by my advice. :D
 
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