implied odds

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mez6266

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Reads: villain 66/10/15 stack $15
The Pot was giving me 2.2:1 with a draw of 5:1
How much do you give for implied odds?


STAGE #838831507: HOLDEM NO LIMIT $0.25 - 2007-12-06 19:16:15 (ET)
Table: BAY CITY (real money) Seat #2 is the dealer
Seat 2 - TEXASAGG44 ($10.60 in chips)
Seat 3 - SCHLONG1212 ($21.50 in chips)
Seat 4 - LOWANG ($19.40 in chips)
Seat 5 - CASHCACHE ($15.40 in chips)
Seat 6 - AIKIBETJITSU ($47.95 in chips)
Seat 1 - MEZ6266 ($18.80 in chips)
SCHLONG1212 - Posts small blind $0.10
LOWANG - Posts big blind $0.25
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to MEZ6266 [6h 5h]
CASHCACHE - Folds
AIKIBETJITSU - Folds
MEZ6266 - Calls $0.25
TEXASAGG44 - Calls $0.25
SCHLONG1212 - Calls $0.15
LOWANG - Checks
*** FLOP *** [As 4d 7h]
SCHLONG1212 - Checks
LOWANG - Checks
MEZ6266 - Bets $0.75
TEXASAGG44 - Calls $0.75
SCHLONG1212 - Raises $1.50 to $1.50
LOWANG - Folds
MEZ6266 - Calls $0.75
TEXASAGG44 - Calls $0.75
*** TURN *** [As 4d 7h] <font color='red'>J<font face="arial">♦</font></font>
SCHLONG1212 - Bets $4.50
MEZ6266 ???
 
royalburrito24

royalburrito24

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fold. I also think you should have folded pre flop as well. But given the current situation you should fold.

sure you have the implied odds, but you have to take into account that if you miss, you just lost a large part of your stack.

fold it, wait for a better spot
 
Cheetah

Cheetah

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Actually, he doesn't have the odds. It is a break-even situation, so it is a clear fold.

The pot is $5.25($0.75 preflop and $4.50 on the flop).
Our stack is smaller and currently it is $18.80 - $0.25 - $1.50 = $17.05

So the most we can win is pot + our stack = $22.30
We have to call $4.50. This gives us odds of $22.30/$4.50 = 4.96/1 which is the same odds as our draw.

Since there is no money to be made, folding is better.
 
tenbob

tenbob

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Actually, he doesn't have the odds. It is a break-even situation, so it is a clear fold.

The pot is $5.25($0.75 preflop and $4.50 on the flop).
Our stack is smaller and currently it is $18.80 - $0.25 - $1.50 = $17.05

So the most we can win is pot + our stack = $22.30
We have to call $4.50. This gives us odds of $22.30/$4.50 = 4.96/1 which is the same odds as our draw.

Since there is no money to be made, folding is better.

I know its nl$25, but what about our table image ? We look like a chasing donk if we call, hit and stack him. Well likely even get called out on our donkish play at the table. Surely there is value in that ?
 
skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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I think it's a clear fold for stack sizes like this. If you were deep stacked, then you can call here in a heartbeat. Unless you're Monty Burns and your heart beats once ever 5 minutes.
 
dj11

dj11

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What is the turn card ?

Pot size to deal with looks to be $10.00 after the $4.50 bet.
 
Cheetah

Cheetah

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I know its nl$25, but what about our table image ? We look like a chasing donk if we call, hit and stack him. Well likely even get called out on our donkish play at the table. Surely there is value in that ?

But why pay for our image? Let the cards determine our image and we can adjust our future play to exploit it.

With this hand, we showed that we can be pushed off a pot. If that happens a few more times, we could get some value by trapping him.
 
tenbob

tenbob

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But if its a zero EV play how are we paying for an image ?
 
Cheetah

Cheetah

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But if its a zero EV play how are we paying for an image ?

Zero EV with higher variance! High variance is equivalent to reduced profits.

Here is a way to see this. Let's say that we play 10/20 games with certain variance. Because we understand BR management, we have accepted a certain level of manageble risk.

Now say that we change our game so that the variance of our play doubles, but the profitability stays the same. Suddenly, our risk is much higher, in fact more than 2 times higher because the relationship is not linear.

Now to have the same level of risk with this play, we have to go down to 5/10 tables and accept the corresponding cut in profits. So variance costs money. Higher variance with higher profits may be OK. But higher variance with same profits is never OK! It causes under-utilization of your bankroll and the corresponding cut in profits.

So long term, calling in the OP situation results in -pEV. (I just invented this EV, and p doesn't stand for "pee", but for "profit".:D )
 
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