implied odds

Lo-Dog

Lo-Dog

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As usual I went through all the trouble of typing this up and then was about to delete it. Its a 2c table but IMO the hand has some merit and is worth a look.




Just joined table but have been watching a few orbits. I am testing some different video formats for people to use when recording a game and just picked the first table that came up and started to record.

Anyway for a 2c table they seem to be playing somewhat tight and reasonable, so lets pretend its not quite super donk play.

(This was only a test don't try playing these stakes at home kids)

pokerstars Game #8104587109: Hold'em No Limit ($0.01/$0.02) - 2007/01/24 - 19:26:00 (ET)
Table 'Cursa III' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 3: kusse ($2.12 in chips)
Seat 4: bambamutk ($4.38 in chips)
Seat 6: xinram ($3.02 in chips)
Seat 7: szymshark ($0.67 in chips)
Seat 8: PLF_DBA_MAN ($2.95 in chips)
Seat 9: Alucard1337 ($3.77 in chips)
szymshark: posts small blind $0.01
PLF_DBA_MAN: posts big blind $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PLF_DBA_MAN [Qc As]
Alucard1337: calls $0.02
kusse: folds
bambamutk: calls $0.02
xinram: folds
xinram leaves the table
szymshark: folds
PLF_DBA_MAN: raises $0.06 to $0.08 - had seen a couple hands where everyone folded to a 6c bet.

Alucard1337: calls $0.06
bambamutk: folds
*** FLOP *** [2s 7s 9d]
PLF_DBA_MAN: bets $0.10 - half the pot c/b

Alucard1337: raises $0.20 to $0.30 - hmm my gut tells me he hit a pair, probably 9's. I've got overcards and a backdoor flush. trips is a possibility from PF action but I think for a bit and....

PLF_DBA_MAN: calls $0.20
*** TURN *** [2s 7s 9d] 3♠
PLF_DBA_MAN: checks - thought briefly of representing the flush here but decided to see what villian has to say.

Alucard1337: bets $0.30 - Only about 3.5 - 1 but I figure my A and Q might still be good and of course the nut flush. I'll give myself 11 outs for pretty much a 4.5 -1 shot.

Implied odds for the flush say call?
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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The thing with implied odds is that they have a lot more potential when your hand is hidden and well-disguised. If a player bets big into you on a 4-flush board and you don't hold a card of that suit, you're pretty much going to dump your hand regardless. Straight draws and flushes when you have 2 suited cards in your hand are much more likely to get paid off than a flush with 4 on the board.

Then again, this is a 1c/2c table and considering the average player at those stakes, he just might pay you off if he's got a set.

He's giving you decent enough odds though, plus your overs might still be outs, so I'll call this and see what the river brings. You only really need a little more than 4:1 to chase that draw, and any money made on the end should make up for that. He'll definitely get to ripping into you though if you hit your flush :)
 
zebranky

zebranky

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agreed

there's very little implied odds for the flush or the A, as either one has got to be a red flag. 4 spades and you bet/raise on the river? If I'm the other guy, it's not hard to figure that one out. If an A does come, same problem - any other pair should be folding, and only the hands that beat you are gonna go for it. Your only chance for implied odds is hitting the Q, as it should be reasonably obvious you have an A, but not what your kicker is (K/Q/J/T).
I think its a fold here, unless you think calling the pot odds is okay with just the money that's in there now.
 
Lo-Dog

Lo-Dog

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PLF_DBA_MAN: calls $0.30
*** RIVER *** [2s 7s 9d 3s] 5s

PLF_DBA_MAN: bets $0.52 - villian could very likely have a flush of his own or may have as little as a pair. Hope for at least a call and at best a raise.

Alucard1337: raises $2.57 to $3.09 and is all-in
PLF_DBA_MAN: calls $1.75 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN **


Alucard1337: shows [7h Ts] (a flush, Ten high)
PLF_DBA_MAN: shows [Qc As] (a flush, Ace high)
PLF_DBA_MAN collected $5.68 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $5.93 | Rake $0.25
Board [2s 7s 9d 3s 5s]
Seat 3: kusse folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: bambamutk folded before Flop
Seat 6: xinram (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: szymshark (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: PLF_DBA_MAN (big blind) showed [Qc As] and won ($5.68) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 9: Alucard1337 showed [7h Ts] and lost with a flush, Ten high
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Never underestimate the stupidity of $2NL players :)
 
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