How do you predict he's holding 35o?

Deathwish238

Deathwish238

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This pissed me off and caught me by surprise


***** Game number #16569509857 *****
Hold'em No Limit ($0.01/$0.02) - 2008/04/07 - 23:48:34 (ET)
Table 'Ariel IV' 6-max
Seat 2 (BTN) has the button.
tzuntzi will be allowed to play after the button
Hero posts small blind [$0.01]
BB posts big blind [$0.02]
Seat 1 : will64 with $1.83.
Seat 2 : BTN with $2.68.
Seat 4 : Hero with $7.53.
Seat 5 : BB with $2.41.
Seat 6 : UTG with $2.87.
hand.pl

** Dealing hole cards **
Dealt to Hero :
:4c4: :4d4:
Sklansky group: 7
UTG: folds
will64: folds
BTN calls [$0.02]
Hero raises $0.04 to $0.06
BB calls [$0.04]
BTN calls [$0.04]
** Dealing Flop ** [Potsize: $0.18]
:6h4: :ac4: :8d4:
Hero bets [$0.06]
BB: folds
BTN calls [$0.06]
** Dealing Turn ** [Potsize: $0.3]
:4h4:
Hero bets [$0.15]
BTN raises $0.15 to $0.30
Hero calls [$0.15]
** Dealing River ** [Potsize: $0.9]
:7s4:
Hero bets [$0.70]
BTN raises $0.70 to $1.40
Hero raises $5.71 to $7.11 [ all-in ]
BTN calls [$0.86] [ all-in ]
** Showdown **
Hero shows three of a kind, Fours:
:4c4: :4d4:
BTN shows a straight, Four to Eight:
:3d4: :5c4:
BTN collected $5.17 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $5.42 | Rake $0.25
Board [6h Ac 8d 4h 7s]
Seat 2: BTN (button) showed [3d 5c] and won ($5.17) with a straight, Four to Eight
Seat 4: Hero (small blind) showed [4c 4d] and lost with three of a kind, Fours
Seat 5: BB (big blind) folded on the Flop
 
Richyl2008

Richyl2008

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You can't really, the best you can do is assign him a range of hands preflop based on how often he is entering pots, and gradually narrow that range down as the hand progresses. I would find it impossible to put him on 35 the way this hand went he called the flop with no pair no draw and picked up a gutshot on the turn and minraised you. Bet more on the turn for value and to protect your hand.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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This pissed me off
Why? Don't you want your opponents making this sort of mistake all the time?

Here are my main gripes with the hand:


Hero raises $0.04 to $0.06
This raise is a little weak. I'd prefer 8 cents, but that's just being nit-picky. I also like to c-bet my pocket pairs a lot when they miss the flop. If you're not comfortable c-betting with 44, then this raise for just pot building purposes is fine. Otherwise I'd pump it to 8-9 cents.

** Dealing Flop ** [Potsize: $0.18]
:6h4: :ac4: :8d4:
Hero bets [$0.06]
Don't bet less than half the pot, its just bad manners! At least represent an ace here and bet 10-12 cents. The purpose of this c-bet is to get folds (in this situation), and 6 cents into an 18 cent pot ain't gonna cut the mustard. Here's where a larger preflop raise would come in handy as well. If you raised preflop to ~9 cents, you may only be up against 1 player. Also, this is a pretty scary flop to c-bet out of position with the ace on it, since weak aces are popular at lower limits.

** Dealing Turn ** [Potsize: $0.3]
:4h4:
Hero bets [$0.15]

BTN raises $0.15 to $0.30
Hero calls [$0.15]
I like the sizing of the first bet (half the pot is good), but just flat calling the min raise (IMO) is a mistake. The min-raise to me represents the following range: 46, 56, A4, 78, 77, 55, two hearts of some sort, or a combination of the two like AhTh. In other words, this raise looks like a weaker hand that would call on the flop that picked up a draw (or two pair) on the turn. And since you don't want them to draw cheaply, you need to re-raise them! I'd come over the top for ~90 cents, if not shove since two pair hands, aces, and the bigger draws will call a shove.

** Dealing River ** [Potsize: $0.9]
:7s4:
Hero bets [$0.70]
BTN raises $0.70 to $1.40
Hero raises $5.71 to $7.11 [ all-in ]
I don't mind the way the river played out, since or villain doesn't have much money left. The 7 isn't that big of a scare card, but I think the turn is just a much better place to get our money in.

Oh, and you want players calling with gutshots as often as possible. Don't be mad, be glad that you have found a true ATM at your table. Rebuy right back in and get your money back from that 'tard! :D
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Btw, since you've made a lot of posts recently, you should probably hide the results for your hand analysis threads. You tend to get much better responses.
 
Deathwish238

Deathwish238

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Why? Don't you want your opponents making this sort of mistake all the time?

Yeah I know...I went from down $6 between two tables to up $2 after an hour or so. Ended up cashing out just about even.

Just had a bad day of beats and I guess this one actually got to me. But yes, generally I suppose I do want them calling gutshots when they don't have odds

Here are my main gripes with the hand:

This raise is a little weak. I'd prefer 8 cents, but that's just being nit-picky. I also like to c-bet my pocket pairs a lot when they miss the flop. If you're not comfortable c-betting with 44, then this raise for just pot building purposes is fine. Otherwise I'd pump it to 8-9 cents.

Funny you say that, I normally do raise 8 cents. However with low pockets I was raising 6 cents just to build the pot rather than chase someone out. Perhaps that was my mistake?

Don't bet less than half the pot, its just bad manners! At least represent an ace here and bet 10-12 cents. The purpose of this c-bet is to get folds (in this situation), and 6 cents into an 18 cent pot ain't gonna cut the mustard. Here's where a larger preflop raise would come in handy as well. If you raised preflop to ~9 cents, you may only be up against 1 player. Also, this is a pretty scary flop to c-bet out of position with the ace on it, since weak aces are popular at lower limits.

I was probe betting quite simply. At the table I was at, 4 cents was often enough to make people fold a 20 cent pot.

I could have cbetted as I quite often do...apparently my AF is 3-4 :p

I like the sizing of the first bet (half the pot is good), but just flat calling the min raise (IMO) is a mistake. The min-raise to me represents the following range: 46, 56, A4, 78, 77, 55, two hearts of some sort, or a combination of the two like AhTh. In other words, this raise looks like a weaker hand that would call on the flop that picked up a draw (or two pair) on the turn. And since you don't want them to draw cheaply, you need to re-raise them! I'd come over the top for ~90 cents, if not shove since two pair hands, aces, and the bigger draws will call a shove.

I suppose you're right. I simply called because of habit. Thinking about it, unless he had an overset there was nothing he could have had to beat me. Not to mention if he did have an overset he probably would have shoved.
I don't mind the way the river played out, since or villain doesn't have much money left. The 7 isn't that big of a scare card, but I think the turn is just a much better place to get our money in.

Point taken
Oh, and you want players calling with gutshots as often as possible. Don't be mad, be glad that you have found a true ATM at your table. Rebuy right back in and get your money back from that 'tard! :D
hehe I was trying to figure out what an ATM was...then I realized it's a good old Automatic Teller Machine...:D
 
Deathwish238

Deathwish238

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Btw, since you've made a lot of posts recently, you should probably hide the results for your hand analysis threads. You tend to get much better responses.
I'll try that. Thanks
 
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switch0723

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Am i the only one whos sees the fact that the worst decision of all was by our hero?

You deserve to lose when you push all in facing a re raise on the river, when there is 4 to a straight on the board. Any 5 has you beat. By pushing all in, you are effectively turning your hand into a bluff as you are only going to be called by a hand that has you beat. Learn to read whats on the board and what your opponent might has, then check/call river
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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By pushing all in, you are effectively turning your hand into a bluff as you are only going to be called by a hand that has you beat.
I don't think that was a huge mistake. There are really only a few hands with a 5 in it that would raise the turn, and 9T is not getting played this way (except *maybe* 9T of hearts). I think there are a *lot* of two pair hands here that would raise this river. And Villain is pot committed at this point, so he's not folding even if he does have 46 and we come over the top.

His shove can certainly be called by hands worse than his, and hands worse than a set of 4's will still raise this river.

Yes, the river is a scarier place to stack off, since there's a 4 straight on the board. But I don't really mind getting it in here on the river, especially against a fish who will bet 78, 67, and other hands this way lots & lots. Sure, a call would've been better, but only slightly IMO, since there's still value to be gained from hands that hit two pair since villain isn't folding. In my opinion, the big mistakes are earlier in the hand.
 
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switch0723

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^^ Fine, ignore the +EV play then
 
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switch0723

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^^ Because shoving with a huge overbet into someone who has re raised a 4 to straight river, is a bet that is only going to be called by a hand that beats you, therefore it is -EV

So by default doing the opposite (what i said) is the +EV/0 play
 
Deathwish238

Deathwish238

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You're making the assumption that he plays good poker...which he doesn't...
 
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switch0723

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He stacked you didnt he??!!?!?!?!
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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^^ Because shoving with a huge overbet into someone who has re raised a 4 to straight river, is a bet that is only going to be called by a hand that beats you, therefore it is -EV

So by default doing the opposite (what i said) is the +EV/0 play
Your reasoning lies in these 2 assumptions:

1) Shoving is an overbet. Its not. Villain only has 86 cents left in his stack, and the pot is $4.56 when we shove. Even if villain has 46, he's not folding getting 5.3:1 on his $.

2) Raised a 4 to straight river only means a straight. It doesn't, especially against players this fishy.

Lets say villain's range on the river is as follows (just hypothetical):

A6, 57, 78, 55

2 of these hands beat us, and we lose 86 cents raising the river. 2 of those hands we beat, and we gain 86 cents on the river (they're not folding, due to pot odds, ect.). This play is neutral EV.

And given this fish, I think we see 2 pair here almost as often as a straight. Is raising the river -EV? Probably, but only slightly IMO. Its not as huge a mistake as you make it out to be.

The real mistake is not stacking off on the turn when only 4 hands beat us (AA, 88, 66, and 57). It allowed villain to draw to his straight, and will often lose us value against 2 pair/big draws. What if a heart came on the river? Is A8 calling our bets then? Do we even bet the river if a non-pair heart comes?

PS:
He stacked you didnt he??!!?!?!?!
How is that relevant? I can stack players by shoving all in with 27os, but it doesn't mean I play sanely. When playing loose opponents, you can make plays which would be -EV against good opponents that are +EV against bad ones (due to your opponent's loose range).

Also, trying to argue for your point of view by saying "He stacked you didn't he" is about the most results oriented post I can think of.

This is why you hide the results of your hand.
 
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switch0723

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I just don't understand these hand analysis sections anymore.

Can't believe i'm being ripped apart after giving correct advice. Listen if you guys think the +EV way is the wrong way, and are refusing to accept you make mistakes, then there is no point posting in these sections.

I give up helping people who play at lower levels now if they are unwilling to take advice
 
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switch0723

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PS:How is that relevant? I can stack players by shoving all in with 27os, but it doesn't mean I play sanely. When playing loose opponents, you can make plays which would be -EV against good opponents that are +EV against bad ones (due to your opponent's loose range).

Also, trying to argue for your point of view by saying "He stacked you didn't he" is about the most results oriented post I can think of.

This is why you hide the results of your hand.

If you find me later, im giving a class on sarcasm, it looks like you could do with the extra learning so i suggest you pop in.
 
robwhufc

robwhufc

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Can't believe i'm being ripped apart after giving correct advice. Listen if you guys think the +EV way is the wrong way, and are refusing to accept you make mistakes, then there is no point posting in these sections.

You have to chill out, poker isn't always about facts, it's usually about opinions, and that's what makes it so interesting.

Don't agree with you about the river raise being a mistake, OK you haven't got the nuts and are behind any 5 and 9 10 but you can't really fold to the 70 cent bet, so why bother leaving him with 86 cents when the pot is $3? He'd have to call if he's behind which he could easily be with a paired Ace, so stick him all in for the rest. It's a moot point really, if the bets had been sized correctly he'd be all in by now anyway.

Smiley face > :)
 
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switch0723

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^^^ I admit that was a mistake on my part in misreading the HH. But my advice was more of a general advice of what to do each time in this situation. I still much much much prefer the check/call option on the river as opposed to the bet/call.

Also its the other two who are annoying me, the people who are saying my advice is just wrong even though its the most profitable and are unwilling to see mistakes they are making to improve their own game. I just don't see why i bother helping these people when they post analysis wanting to see the best way to play a hand, yet push it aside when it is giving!!! /end rant

P.S. Im not irate at you rob, <3 calming ways of rob
 
Deathwish238

Deathwish238

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I just don't understand these hand analysis sections anymore.

Can't believe i'm being ripped apart after giving correct advice. Listen if you guys think the +EV way is the wrong way, and are refusing to accept you make mistakes, then there is no point posting in these sections.

I give up helping people who play at lower levels now if they are unwilling to take advice
I don't think you're being ripped apart at all and I appreciate your input.

The thing is, players at $2NL would call all the way down with a pair of Aces. Hell I've been driven out of a hand when I had two pair and there was 4 to a flush on the board when the winner had middle pair on more than one occasion.

I think if it read:

Hero bets [$0.70]
BTN raises $0.70 to $1.40
Hero raises $0.86 to $2.26
BTN calls [$0.86] [ all-in ]



You wouldn't have as much of a problem with it.
 
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switch0723

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^^^ As much as it doesnt look as bad. Im still imagining villains can play a bit of poker, and i still dont like the re raise, that is another 86 cents which is just shy of 1/5 of hte max buyin, so its a substantial amount.

Just in the future deathwish, consider check calling the river, that way you can induce a bet from top pair/ 2 pair type hands, which may not call your bet,
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I just don't see why i bother helping these people when they post analysis wanting to see the best way to play a hand, yet push it aside when it is giving!!! /end rant
There's this crazy thing called "discussion". People do it on forums & such. I'm not pushing your (usually correct) advice aside. I'm "discussing" and trying to make a logical argument why it might not be correct in this instance. I'm bringing up villain's range, how pot committed he is, ect, which is part of discussion. If you don't like discussion, stop posting on "discussion" boards.

PS - My sarcasm detector is pretty bad after you've posted 3-4 responses and seem kinda frustrated that no one is taking your advice. Plus, with newer posters I try to leave the sarcasm to a minimum :)
 
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switch0723

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man this thread sucks, and all people invloved including myself look like complete asses, except for rob who had the only sane comment.

Can a mod please delete all of my posts in this thread if thats at all possible, except for my first post
 
Deathwish238

Deathwish238

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lol I don't think you're making yourself look like an ass

^^^ As much as it doesnt look as bad. Im still imagining villains can play a bit of poker, and i still dont like the re raise, that is another 86 cents which is just shy of 1/5 of hte max buyin, so its a substantial amount.

Just in the future deathwish, consider check calling the river, that way you can induce a bet from top pair/ 2 pair type hands, which may not call your bet,


So say I checked and then someone raises 1/2 the pot on the river. What would I do then?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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I think checking this river is horrible. Maybe if we were deeper, and had a slightly weaker holding, you could make an argument for bet/folding.

But if you check the river, he bets 45c, I still think a min-raise is in order. We're still ahead of his range for the most part, and fish will call with 2 pair on the river, even after getting c/raised, so there's still value in it.

I think the best line on the river would be to bet ~65c, and if our opponent were smarter, folding to a shove.
 
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