Flush draw odds

[Bombjack]

I'm pretty sure I was on the wrong side of the odds for most of this hand, but it makes for an interesting discussion topic. Feel free to throw all the insults you like.

I only saw BB for 10 hands, during which he played 50% of them, suggesting he's quite loose, although to be fair it wasn't a full game.

SB ($0.60)
BB ($18.30)
Hero ($43.50)
Button ($38.80)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7

, 8

.
BB calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1, Button calls $1, SB calls $0.35 (All-In), BB calls $0.75.

Not normally a raising hand for me, but we're short handed and I'm mixing it up. And if it's good enough to call a raise with, it's good enough to raise.

Flop: ($3.60) K

, T

, A

(4 players, 1 all-in)

Well, there are some scary cards there, but I have the initiative as raiser, and a flush draw. Put out a feeler bet which might win it for me right here.

BB checks, Hero bets $2, Button folds, BB raises to $7

Have been check raised, suggesting he has a pretty strong hand. It's $5 to call on the $12.60 pot. My chances of making the flush on the turn are 19%, and by the river 35%. $5 is 40% of the pot, but should get good implied odds.

What could he have? He would probably have re-raised pre-flop with AA, KK, TT, AK. Could have AT, KT, or maybe QJ for a made straight. Flush draw unlikely.

Hero calls $5.

Marginal call at best, but not terrible.

Turn: ($17.60) 9

(3 players, 1 all-in)

Not a bad card for me. I now have an up-down straight draw (so long as BB doesn't have a Queen) as well as my flush draw.

BB bets $10.3 (All-In)

It's $10.30 to call on a $27.90 pot. I need 37% to call. With flush draw (9 outs) and straight draw (another 6), assuming a pair of 7s or 8s won't win, I have a 33% chance of hitting.

Hero calls $10.30.

Not a good call mathematically speaking, but it's tricky to work out the precise odds on the spot.

River: ($38.20) 9

(3 players, 2 all-in)

I get lucky and hit one of my outs. Turns out I didn't have as many as I thought!

SHOWDOWN
Big Stav shows Q

, J

Bombjack_x shows 7

,8

johnny__c123 mucks cards
Bombjack_x wins $37.95.


Questions:
a) Assuming deep stacks, what % of the pot should you be prepared to pay on the flop to see the turn with a flush draw, when heads-up?

b) If you have the made straight and are setting the odds, do you set the odds so that it's just about worth your opponent calling (despite his not being favourite to win), or so that it's not worth him drawing out, so you win it right there? I think it's got to be the former, because otherwise you'd just go all-in on a flop like this every time. BB made it so it just about wasn't worth it. Comments?

 

[twizzybop]

You over calculated your odds.. 2 cards for your straight are also the same exact cards for your flush..

 

[Bombjack]

Nope it would be 8 cards for straight if I hadn't rejected the 2 clubs.

 

[Styrofoam]

obviously your outs were'nt pure here. bad call, and bad raise. IMO you sucked out and got VERY VERY lucky here

 

[twizzybop]

Nope it would be 8 cards for straight if I hadn't rejected the 2 clubs.

So I had it correct to begin with.

By the way it is 30% to hit it on the river and not the 33% as you so speak of.


Have been check raised, suggesting he has a pretty strong hand. It's $5 to call on the $12.60 pot. My chances of making the flush on the turn are 19%, and by the river 35%. $5 is 40% of the pot, but should get good implied odds.

Wrong the villian made a pot bet and you called 2:1 pot bet on a 3.5:1 to hit and just be glad villian didn't have more money to bet the turn to give you more incorrect odds to call. So your implied odds are thrown out the window when you are calling 2:1 bets against 3:1 or higher odds to hit. Long term you will lose against these odds, implied or not.

 

[Alon Ipser]

$5 is 40% of the pot, but should get good implied odds.

What could he have?

You're not going to get much for implied odds. All he has left $10.30. If you're planning on implied odds, he has to have a big enough stack to pay you in the end. If you come back over the top of him with an all in after the flop your odds I belive would be about 1 in 3 (check my math), which would be break even and that is assuming you have the high flush.

 

[Styrofoam]

You're not going to get much for implied odds. All he has left $10.30. If you're planning on implied odds, he has to have a big enough stack to pay you in the end. If you come back over the top of him with an all in after the flop your odds I belive would be about 1 in 3 (check my math), which would be break even and that is assuming you have the high flush.

this is correct.

 

[Bombjack]

Thanks for the comments so far.

obviously your outs were'nt pure here. bad call, and bad raise. IMO you sucked out and got VERY VERY lucky here

I don't think it's a suckout if you call when you're less than 50% to win, but have pot odds to do so. That's the point of my post really. Having analysed the odds and the cost of calling, it was marginally not worth it. So I was definitely lucky, but I wouldn't say VERY lucky.

Twizzy - 15 outs (4 jacks, 4 sixes, 7 other clubs) makes the odds on the turn 15/46 = 33%. I didn't count the jack and six of clubs twice.

Correct that these aren't pure - obviously I wouldn't have called on the turn if I'd known he'd flopped the nut straight, but how often is this going to be the case? It's a small possibility so you could "discount" the outs on the basis that he's betting strongly so is more likely to hold QJ. But more often I think he'd have 2 pair or trips. If he has trips I'd need to remove 2 outs (Tc, 9c) which would make him a full house, so we'd be down to 13.

Good point about him needing to have a deep stack for getting good implied odds, which makes the call on the flop a lot worse. This comes back to the questions I put at the bottom - what price would you guys be prepared to pay to see the turn in this situation? Is it just the 19% that you'll hit a flush on the turn? And if you had the straight, how much should you raise and why?

Re: the all-in suggestion, it would be another $15.30 for me to go all-in, against a pot of $38.20, which would be 40.1% of the pot - not worth it for a flush draw. The value in an all-in on a flush draw is with fold equity. It's never correct (I don't think?) to put your chips in if you know you're going to get called, but you're not the favourite to win at that point.

 

[Alon Ipser]

I fold after the $7 reraise.

Had a post on flush pot odds not too long ago.

https://www.cardschat.com/showthread.php?t=69111

IMO if you are going to figure odds for chasing flushes and straights, it is best to figure one card at a time or 1 in 6 odds to see the turn and then another 1 in 6 odds to see the river. I only use the 1 in 3 odds from flop to river if I'm going all in.

 

[Bombjack]

Had a post on flush pot odds not too long ago.
https://www.cardschat.com/showthread.php?t=69111

Really helpful thread, thanks for the link Alon! Great advice there from Mr Sticker and Four Dogs.

In summary, if you're on a flush draw, call up to a half-pot bet.

In this case, his raise is effectively a $5 bet at a $7.60 pot, so I should have folded. If he'd only raised to $5.80 or less rather than $7, I could have called.

Regarding what to bet if you have the straight on the flop, Four Dogs put it well:

Unless I'm short stacked in a tournament situation, I'm trying to keep the chasers in, not chase them out. As long as you're disciplined enough to fold when you think your opponent has filled their draw, I find that a 1/2 to 1/3 pot bet will often get called. This is a good thing. Particularly in ring games where long term EV (Expected Value) is more important.

In other words you shouldn't make pot sized bets if you have the nuts on the flop - you should give your opponents odds to call, then fold or check if their draw comes up.

In this case, if Villain knew what I had, it would have been a better play for him to bet around half the pot, which would give me odds to call. (OK I called anyway, but that was a bad play by me.) He is the favourite in the hand, so has +ve EV for every dollar that goes into the pot.

Cheers, that's cleared up my thinking a lot.

 

[Toadly]

I would have re-raised him past the 7 bucks or I would have folded. The chance he has trips or two pairs with a full house poss.and teh fact he could have me out flushed ......na I agree you ****ed up and got lucky.......still the "villian" raised with crap didn't he ............lol...lmao?

Didn't you even concider he had Q J ?? it is a very common hand

In fact from his point of view your a big fat fish to heavy to get into his net..............lmao

 

[twizzybop]

Twizzy - 15 outs (4 jacks, 4 sixes, 7 other clubs) makes the odds on the turn 15/46 = 33%. I didn't count the jack and six of clubs twice.

Learn to multiply.. 15X2 is 30% and if we even go with the +1 it is 31%...the 31% is very close to the accurate %..then the flush draw is 36% all the way down to the river when you have that on the flop.

 

[Styrofoam]

Your outs on the turn simply a flush draw..and a backdoor straight...10 outs...or 10/47 or 1:4.7

But how many of your outs are good? could this guy have a higher flush draw? possibly. Could he have two pair...VERY possible. Could have have a straight already made...definately. your outs are far from pure. Get your money in when its good, not when its fairly obvious you're way behind. You called the bets AGAINST THE ODDS, and therefor, a -ev play. You got lucky so it paid off, but if you make that play too often, you will lose money

 

[Bombjack]

Learn to multiply.. 15X2 is 30% and if we even go with the +1 it is 31%...the 31% is very close to the accurate %..then the flush draw is 36% all the way down to the river when you have that on the flop.

Twizzy - the 2% rule is a rule of thumb, not absolutely accurate. You get the exact percentage by dividing the number of outs by the number of unseen cards. 2 cards in my hand, 4 on the board, makes 46 unseen. 15 outs divided by 46 unseen is 32.61%, which rounds to 33%.

Your outs on the turn simply a flush draw..and a backdoor straight...10 outs...or 10/47 or 1:4.7

A backdoor straight I thought referred to runner-runner? So this would have been a backdoor straight if made, but it's still open-ended, where 4 cards at each end (4 jacks, 4 sixes) could make it. Plus 7 more for a flush makes 15.

You may be thinking about on the flop? The outs are a lot lower there, as I wouldn't count runner-runner outs. There, it's 9 outs for a flush (13 - 2 in my hand, 2 on the board).

 

[Styrofoam]

I am talking about the flop. Your flop call was a bad one - which is why IMO you got lucky. The turn call was just as questionable, but the 9 gave you more "outs" (which were all dead outs). If you're calculating odds, you almost certainly count back-door draws also...which is why i gave you an extra out on the flop. But even so, You didn't have the odds to call the flop. You got lucky and sucked out. Thats all there is to it. If you continue that play over time it will lose money.

 

[Bombjack]

Lesson learnt!

 

[Styrofoam]

Really helpful thread, thanks for the link Alon! Great advice there from Mr Sticker and Four Dogs.

In summary, if you're on a flush draw, call up to a half-pot bet.

In this case, his raise is effectively a $5 bet at a $7.60 pot, so I should have folded. If he'd only raised to $5.80 or less rather than $7, I could have called.

Regarding what to bet if you have the straight on the flop, Four Dogs put it well:

In other words you shouldn't make pot sized bets if you have the nuts on the flop - you should give your opponents odds to call, then fold or check if their draw comes up.

In this case, if Villain knew what I had, it would have been a better play for him to bet around half the pot, which would give me odds to call. (OK I called anyway, but that was a bad play by me.) He is the favourite in the hand, so has +ve EV for every dollar that goes into the pot.

Cheers, that's cleared up my thinking a lot.

No.. that is WRONG. If thats what the article wrote, that is WRONG. The Fundemental theorum of poker states "For every mistake your opponent makes, you gain - and for every mistake you make, your opponent gains"

If you GIVE the villian CORRECT odds to draw, he is making the right play... you gain nothing. You want to skew the odds in your favor enough that they will make a mistake in calling when they should fold...that is the what +expected value. If you give your opponent EXACT odds to call, you make nothing, he makes nothing. Its a break even play. If you give him better odds, its -ev. Simply put, NEVER give your opponents correct odds to draw to their hands. ALWAYS make them pay you. And while they will make their hand every now and then, you still get what is called "Sklansky dollars" meaning while you lost the pot, you still gained in the end.

Its like betting on a coin flip. you bet 1$ its heads i bet 1$ its tails. Over time we will break even. But if you bet 1.10 to my 1$ i will come out on top over time.

 

[Bombjack]

Right, I'm totally confused now. I think I need to go and read a book by Sklansky. What you're saying seems to make a lot of sense. DON'T give opponents odds to draw out.

So the correct play by the guy with the straight here is just to move all-in on the flop, so I don't have odds to call? Doesn't seem quite right.

I think there must be a sweet spot, where you can bet enough for you opponent not to have correct odds, but not so much that his is unlikely to make the mistake of calling.

 

[Styrofoam]

that is exactly right. He bet just enough on the flop that you had incorrect odds to call....in reality he probably should have bet a bit more, but even so.

No, he shouldn't have gone all in, he did what he needed to do..but When you have amade hand, you want to give your opponent slightly worse odds than he would need to make a +ev call.