AA versus AK

[mister628]

I know that a starting hand in hold em' is better the more your percentage of winning is, but I was figuring that AK is a better starting hand to have only because I've won more with it, and there are more outs to hit than AA. With AA you only got two other Aces and with AK you have 6 possible matches. With only 52 cards in a standard deck, hitting an A or K seems more probable than getting one of those other two Aces in a AA starting hand. AA is a good starting hand but it gives you a false sense that you will win the hand, and some people slow play it, and others get straights, flushes, and other hands that beat up on AA. When I've had AA in the past I've lost more times than when I have AK, why is that? Take care y'all, cya at the tables.

Bee

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

I know that a starting hand in hold em' is better the more your percentage of winning is, but I was figuring that AK is a better starting hand to have only because I've won more with it, and there are more outs to hit than AA. With AA you only got two other Aces and with AK you have 6 possible matches. With only 52 cards in a standard deck, hitting an A or K seems more probable than getting one of those other two Aces in a AA starting hand.

Umm, this makes no sense, essentially because AA doesn't need to improve nearly as often as AK to win hands...

Reasons you're losing more with AA?

- Bad streak with AA/Lucky streak with AK... what sample size of AA/AK hands are you using? If you're basing this off a small sample of AA/AK hands, well, come back when you have a decent sample.

- Misplaying AA. Are you letting people see cheap flops when you have AA and are then unable to get away from it?

Oh, and...

but I was figuring that AK is a better starting hand to have only because I've won more with it

This is taking being results-oriented into a new dimension.

 

[kyfranchise]

I would take AA over AK obviously...You dont have to improve your hand when you have AA to win most pots. The reason you probably are losing a lot of the time with AA is because you misplay the hand and let people get in or hang around when you shouldnt and then they end up hitting a straight or flush. Or you could just be getting really unlucky. The thing about poker is that you need to get in with the best hand and just hope that it holds up and it this case AA is the best hand going in.

 

[ChuckTs]

Statistically, AA is better than AK; everybody knows that.
Sure AA has "2 cards to hit", and AK has 6....but AA is already a pair...it doesn't need to improve and hit another ace. You're getting your point mixed up here...it's not about outs with AA. You already have a 'made hand', though 1 pair is a loser long term.

People are much more attached to AA, and will pretty much call them regardless what flops. This accounts for "losing big pots and winning small ones" with aces. People aren't nearly as attached to AK; say you raise PF with AK, and the flop comes 9J2. You put out your continuation bet, but your opponent reraises you. Of course you're going to fold, because you have nothing! With aces, you might push in this spot, or at least reraise. What happens if your opponent called with JT? or TT? Well you're most probably going to go broke; and this is why alot of people lose more with AA than AK in the long run.
Aces are much harder to get away from than AK.

 

[Sammyv1]

Statistically, AA is better than AK; everybody knows that.
Sure AA has "2 cards to hit", and AK has 6....but AA is already a pair...it doesn't need to improve and hit another ace. You're getting your point mixed up here...it's not about outs with AA. You already have a 'made hand', though 1 pair is a loser long term.

People are much more attached to AA, and will pretty much call them regardless what flops. This accounts for "losing big pots and winning small ones" with aces. People aren't nearly as attached to AK; say you raise PF with AK, and the flop comes 9J2. You put out your continuation bet, but your opponent reraises you. Of course you're going to fold, because you have nothing! With aces, you might push in this spot, or at least reraise. What happens if your opponent called with JT? or TT? Well you're most probably going to go broke; and this is why alot of people lose more with AA than AK in the long run.
Aces are much harder to get away from than AK.

Very well put!!!!!!

 

[Jack Daniels]

Well, I gotta go with the group on this. The most common error that people make is slow playing AA (or KK, QQ, etc). Most of the time, the correct play with any big hand is to raise pre-flop. Sure, in certain circumstances smooth calling is appropriate, but notice I said raise most of the time not always.

However, one other opportunity (if you're like mister628 and lose a lot with AA) is to raise pre-flop, then start your slow playing post-flop ONLY if you hit a big hand. If you didn't flop a monster, then you need to bet out or if you put your opponent on a bigger hand you need to learn how to fold AA.

There are those that will start telling you that you should never fold AA, even pre-flop. Long story short, you will possibly only fold AA pre-flop once or twice in your life, but as for post flop, you'd better learn to lay it down when you KNOW you are beaten either drawing thin or dead.

 

[HotShotX]

Well, there is never a single hand that you have a sure win with. However, AA is definitely something you use to "control" the game with. You shouldn't be going all-in or expecting a sure win, but you should be a tad aggressive and pay close attention to what is on the table and determine what could bring you down and the odds of it happening before each bet.

~HotShotX

 

[Bombjack]

There are those that will start telling you that you should never fold AA, even pre-flop.

You mean post-flop presumably. Well, it's true, you should never fold AA pre-flop, the ONLY time being if you're on the bubble in a tourney with a flat payout structure with a not-small stack. There was a thread about this recently, but I can't find it now.

 

[joosebuck]

AK is a better trap hand than AA. but AA > AK by a longshot.

 

[Jack Daniels]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Daniels
There are those that will start telling you that you should never fold AA, even pre-flop.

You mean post-flop presumably.

No, I did mean pre-flop.

Well, it's true, you should never fold AA pre-flop, the ONLY time being if you're on the bubble in a tourney with a flat payout structure with a not-small stack.

On this we agree. This is sort of what I was alluding to when I talked about folding AA preflop. I was in a $40 tourney deep in the money with five people left. The whole story would require a separate post, but the short of it is that I folded AA from the BB after the other four players pushed all in pre-flop. It was a good group of players, so it was really odd they would play that way, but not my issue. Anyway, I folded which, in hindsight was the right thing as I would have lost the hand ultimately from what I saw. Anyway, big stack guy with KK wins with his set of KKK and knocks out three players leaving us heads up.

So, yes, from a strategy perspective, if you are comfortable in your game and sure of yourself, it is possible on the RARE occasion to fold AA pre-flop.

(and as luck would have it, I did go on to win that tourney - thanks to his super aggression with crappy hands. )

 

[ChuckTs]

Anyway, I folded which, in hindsight was the right thing as I would have lost the hand ultimately from what I saw.

Results-oriented much?

In my opinion, there is no circumstance (aside from the bubble of a satellite ex.) that you should fold AA preflop. Your odds will be diminished with more players in the pot, but you're still a huge favourite to win.
Had your opponent not hit his third king, or had you called and won, I'm sure your opinion on the matter would be much different.

 

[Jack Daniels]

Results-oriented much?

Absolutely. And the ends justify the means. But ultimately it is the results that I'm looking for. I don't play for 2nd place, but I don't play to finish on the bubble either.

Had your opponent not hit his third king, or had you called and won, I'm sure your opinion on the matter would be much different.

You could be right on this. Probably be kicking myself. But based on the results it would seem that I did the right thing. Had I called, I would have lost and been out in 4th place. By folding I took first with an absolute guarantee that I was in the top two (after that previous hand was over).

Anyway, I think we are pretty much saying the same thing, ultimately (Just in different ways from each other). Simply put, at the end of the day, there are only a couple reasonable scenarios to fold AA pre-flop, and those scenarios are very RARE.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

You could be right on this. Probably be kicking myself. But based on the results it would seem that I did the right thing. Had I called, I would have lost and been out in 4th place. By folding I took first with an absolute guarantee that I was in the top two (after that previous hand was over).

This is a terrible way of thinking about this situation.

In the long run, you will profit by calling with AA in said situation, however in the short run, results are subject to a large degree of luck/variance. By thinking in terms of short-term results, you are not thinking correctly in terms of the long-run, which is the correct way of thinking if you want to maximise your earnings.

Sure, in the short-run, KK guy will hit his 2-outer at any given time, but over the long run, the percentage of times he hits his 2 outer gets closer and closer to his actual probability to hit.

Thinking in terms of "I had AA, he had KK but I was right to fold preflop because he flopped a K" is a disastrous way of thinking, and will affect your long-term winrate hugely. You were not correct in folding because you folded a hand that was a huge favourite, regardless of the results.

 

[ChuckTs]

Well put, my (results-oriented connoisseur) friend.


Results are ultimately what you are striving for, but long-term and short-term results are completely different. It's only the fact that this was for big money and that 4 people were all in that you are arguing this.

Say you're at a homegame, and for whatever fold a HU all in push with QQ (for whatever reason). Your opponent shows JJ, and after peeking at what the flop would have brought, you see a third jack. Do you still consider this a good fold?

 

[Jack Daniels]

It's only the fact that this was for big money and that 4 people were all in that you are arguing this.

By george, I think you've got it.

And, btw, yes that play was results oriented for the short term. But you can't simply ignore the short term while focusing on the long term as you are implying. You need to be constantly conscious of both. Ignoring either is big a mistake

Let's be clear on something, in a differenct scenario, say early on in the tourney...yeah, my money's going in. That isn't a scenario we're talking about. In fact, in most scenarios all the money goes in at that point with AA.

Here's a really interesting way of looking at it. Think of it as ... hmm... for lack of a better term, I'm going to coin a new term and call this reverse pot odds ...
depending on what those other four people are holding, my pre-flop chance of winning ranges around 40% in most cases (five handed, pre-flop). (and for those that want to challenge the %, notice I said most. I will even stipulate right now that sometimes it will be better than 40%, other times less than 40%). So, if I call, I am going to win 2 out of 5 times (odds of winning, 1.5 to 1 against). But if I call and lose, I will be in from 2nd - 5th place. Since 2nd place paid just over half of 1st place, and 5th place was much lower (don't recall the #), in best case I could lose and get somewhere between 0.5 to 1 down to like 0.1 to 1 of the 1st place pay out. I'm not going to blow my stack when at best I could be getting .5 to 1 on my cash out that is 1.5 to 1 against hitting.

(AGAIN, note that we are talking about a very specific scenario. If you ignore this simple statement, you can argue anything. Would you ever consider laying down 4 of a kind once the river is shown? If the scenario was right and all the indicators there and I know I'm beaten by a straight flush, damn right I'd lay it down. Again, a very specific scenario. You can't simply apply "Reverse Pot Odds", hmm, I like that term, to any scenario at any time. If you do, you will be ignoring the long term completely and only hurting yourself. So like anything in poker, when the circumstances are right, and the pre-requisites met, apply the correct optimal strategy at THAT time - which will be different next time).

I know you are going to flip out when you read this, and for that I'm LMAO. Because I also know that you are going to respond with a snide remark about how it was still wrong.

And, finally just for the record...my short term results was to win that tourney and my long term results (at least for the last 22 months that I've been keeping detailed records) show profit every month.

 

[mister628]

Thanks

You've all made some interesting posts about the AA / AK subject thanks alot. When I have AA I usually like to go all-in unless I got way more chips than everyone on the table, then I just make a big bet and hope someone calls.

 

[ChuckTs]

depending on what those other four people are holding, my pre-flop chance of winning ranges around 40% in most cases (five handed, pre-flop). (and for those that want to challenge the %, notice I said most. I will even stipulate right now that sometimes it will be better than 40%, other times less than 40%). So, if I call, I am going to win 2 out of 5 times (odds of winning, 1.5 to 1 against). But if I call and lose, I will be in from 2nd - 5th place. Since 2nd place paid just over half of 1st place, and 5th place was much lower (don't recall the #), in best case I could lose and get somewhere between 0.5 to 1 down to like 0.1 to 1 of the 1st place pay out. I'm not going to blow my stack when at best I could be getting .5 to 1 on my cash out that is 1.5 to 1 against hitting.

You make a good point and I now see what you mean by folding in that position might be the best option. You also of course have to factor in the stack sizes, and their playing styles, which I'm sure you did at the time, but also how confident you are going heads up with whoever would end up winning the race.
The way you phrased it in your original post ( Anyway, I folded which, in hindsight was the right thing as I would have lost the hand ultimately from what I saw. ), it sounded like you were basing your fold purely on the fact that he hit his 3rd king, which of course would be results-oriented in...the bad way (for lack of a better set of words :/ )

I know you are going to flip out when you read this, and for that I'm LMAO. Because I also know that you are going to respond with a snide remark about how it was still wrong.

How do you know this? Just because I was taking part in an argument (and one about a pretty controversial subject in folding aces preflop) doesn't mean I'm going to ignore all other possibilities and think I am right. You just didn't emphasize your point (of folding to guarantee 2nd place, and your confidence HU giving you a good shot of overcoming 1st's big stack) enough. I was under the impression that you thought it was a good idea to fold only because of the KK hitting his set.
I don't think my posts were, but I apologize if, my posts came out snide or rude - but I was just trying to argue my point.

Anyway, I think we are pretty much saying the same thing, ultimately (Just in different ways from each other). Simply put, at the end of the day, there are only a couple reasonable scenarios to fold AA pre-flop, and those scenarios are very RARE.

Agreed (...now )
I never thought of a scenario in which AA could be folded rightly PF aside from the satellite bubble example until now...though I still would have to see the actuall HH and, in your position, need have your reads and see how confident you would be HU to agree with you %100.

 

[Jack Daniels]

Chuck - You are correct, I was out of line with the snide remark comment. I apologize for that. I did something here that I try so much to avoid at the poker table. I made a decision about my "opponent" without considering all the facts. In reality, I think it is our type of discussion (two sides with such conviction) that ultimately make us all better players in some way. If nothing else, it gives us opportunity to see things from someone else's point of view.

Thank you for that.

On a side note, it was a while back now, but I do recall printing out the hand history at the time (so that I could discuss it with some friends over coffee, okay it was beer). If I can find it, I'll post it in the hand analysis section. Given all of the details, which you weren't privy to here, I would be sincerely interested in your opinion.

See you at the tables.

 

[JAMILE1]

Very good debate and discussion guys on this topic, found it very interesting, Jack hope you can find that HH and post it for us to view.

Good stuff gang

 

[Toadly]

AA verse AK...........................LOL this happened today


I am playing about 3 hours with a group of fools. I mean some of them were betting any face card, screw any kicker, these guys were playing like mad. Me I was just sitting back cool and winning here and there. Really had not lost any pot I was in. These guys were after me.....LOL The bully and me a clashed a few times and he lost but, then this hand came up and he really got pissed off.........LOL

1-2 no limit 9 players
I am on the button
The wild player is in seat 5'ish
First to act makes it 12 to go
Fold Fold
Wild man makes it 40 to go
Hum.............say I
I have ACE KING suited
I make it 100 to go
First raiser folds
Wild man thinks for about 1 min
He goes all in for 370, just about what I have\

Now I have watched him do this about a dozen times and show a crap bluff hands after people fold. He is really good at it ...........LOL
Idiot says I...........................I will have his stack......Grinning


So.................

I call his all-in just like that.I know damn well he has Ace 3 off suit, King 9, 5 6 suited or even 2 6 off suit but, not a real hand. Well maybe a small pair at worst. Besides I know I am at least a strong Favorite to be correct on his hand.

HE TURNS OVER ACE ...........ACE.....AUGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH


Ok the cards fall like this.............Q........J.......9........3..........10............ SWEET I MADE THE STRAIGHT !!!!!!!!!!


Ha HA HA HA HA HA HA .I know, I know, I know...what a nasty man.

But what fun that was.............it made my day

 

[Kenzie 96]

In the scenario described by Jack I am more than likely laying down my pocket A's preflop. Big stack goes allin & is called by the other 3 players at the table. With 4 already committed A's are much less valuable.

 

[Toadly]

Never had that happen but I agree with you an that one. Itt would be something to concider.

I folded Bullets once with only one guy pushing me all for for just over 400 hundred............I know I know" WTF were you doing ? that is the spot all players want to be in !!!!! Aughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh"

Well yes it is but concider this.I had been on the table for almost 10 hours. I started with 60 bucks 1-2 no limit. Hum says I there is a 20% chance or so I could loose my whole stack...........What is more important the long haul of win win win or the short term of glory and greed ???


I folded them face up and cashed out 370 ahead.

 

[joosebuck]

with almost any 4 hands in you are still above 50% to win. if you wont take a potential 5-up risking busting half the time, you are a moron.

 

[mister628]

AA vs AK

Hey Kenzie, in that scenario it sort of seems that AK would be a better hand because of the out possibilities. I know the starting hand isn't as great but you have the potential to hit 3 Aces or 3 kings int he community cards. This is a real strange predicament, because in that situation I've won with AK many more times than with AA. AA seems to always get busted at the turn or river, ya know.

 

[Toadly]

with almost any 4 hands in you are still above 50% to win. if you wont take a potential 5-up risking busting half the time, you are a moron.

Oh really ? a moron well MAYBE your an ASSHOLE

Going home up is never a moron thing to do.

Playing for hours and being ahead and then going home busted on the last hand is what an Asshole might do.