$600 NLHE Full Ring: Should I have gone for value on the river?

[MemphisGrind]

I am a little late to the party.

After just reading through the hand one time, I didn't really have an issue with the line. We could debate sizing til we're blue in the face, and I don't like being blue in the face, so I'm not gonna bother with that at the moment.

I was surprised after skimming the thread that almost everyone was so vehemently against the value bet. I mean, we know the guy has a wide range to get to the river with, right??

But I really liked this point from bean:



Now, none of us were there (and I think that's important to state), so none of us can say for sure whether Memphis' reads were "right" or "enough info" to do what he did. All we can comment on is the information as given.

That being said, it IS really important to remember that our reads aren't perfect, and just because we've seen someone be wild doesn't mean they'll be wild in THIS SPOT. Seriously. I only even know to harp on this because I've been burned by it so. many. God. Damn. TIMES.

Whew. Okay. Anyway....

What I'm trying to say is that this is a REALLY subjective spot. On one end of the spectrum we've got the player pool average, against whom I would not go for this bet (and DEF not the call) on the river. But on the other end is that our info is pretty good here and maybe even undersold to the point where the river bet is an absolute slam dunk and in reality it may be more to induce than anything else.

The last little nitpicking side note I'll toss in here is that one thing I know I sort of "forget" really often in-game when playing against really wide opponents is that just because their range is wide doesn't mean it makes NO SENSE.

A lot of times these guys will widen their range to an absurd degree and show up with all offsuit connectors and gappers, etc... And they'll play basically any 2 suited cards. (Like J4 of diamonds, for example.)

But the problem is, a lot of times that's their line. Suited cards good, connecting cards good. But in a spot like this, they will never ever EVER in a million years show up with K7o or 84o or J4o. Those guys exist, but that might not be this guy, and that's an important distinction. And what they actually get to the river with is often shockingly more narrowed than what they have on the flop.

Again. None of us were there. Only OP was there. But I just figured I'd toss some wood on the fire and watch it burn a bit... it's cold tonight.

LOL solid post. And I appreciate the feedback. All your thoughts on reads or possibility of lack thereof are possible. I try overly hard to be the "most" attentive player at the table, however live reads can def. be wrong.

The villain in this hand is OUT there, a truly one of a kind player type lol and as I've said in other replies to prior posts I plan on working harder with the other Regs that play the same games as me, on better understanding our "unknown" competition, therefore raising my edge for understanding and reading my competition. It helps me as well to also better understand the way they think as well which I feel also helps for a slight edge.

Thanks again for taking the time to comment.

 

[Poker_Mike]

Memphis - I think I can speak for the entire thread....lol

We're all coming to Tunica to rail you and wait for an open seat at the table with this guy and his buddy (brother?)

I am sincerely hoping that I remember this thread when I am in the same spot on the river!

Good luck !

 

[MemphisGrind]

Memphis - I think I can speak for the entire thread....lol

We're all coming to Tunica to rail you and wait for an open seat at the table with this guy and his buddy (brother?)

I am sincerely hoping that I remember this thread when I am in the same spot on the river!

Good luck !

lol Thanks for that.

The games are crazy profitable. Come on down. I'll guide you to some good tables. Even after losing that hand I still ended that session with 1.5K profit.

 

[Alucard]

turn bet seems too small for me. I'd bet bigger.
Two reasons for that. We are pretty deep & to charge draws.
We can bet fold if we bet bigger on river because with that sammalmall size we are inducing & gonna get check raised often so we have to call. Specially with his image
by betting bigger he ain't gonna cr with less.
easy call with that price

I think I'm taking a very similar line on the games I play. going for thin value on river & calling that size. but betting bigger turn. Almost never checking back river

 

[MemphisGrind]

turn bet seems too small for me. I'd bet bigger.
Two reasons for that. We are pretty deep & to charge draws.
We can bet fold if we bet bigger on river because with that sammalmall size we are inducing & gonna get check raised often so we have to call. Specially with his image
by betting bigger he ain't gonna cr with less.
easy call with that price

I think I'm taking a very similar line on the games I play. going for thin value on river & calling that size. but betting bigger turn. Almost never checking back river

Yes, I agree! that advice was given to me a few times by some well known pro's I talked to. I appreciate the comment and feedback and plan to make some slight adjustments in sizing.

 

[muky2]

I know this is an old post, but I just read it and it made me think a lot. I think, with your read on this guy, your play was great. Knwing his cards, a had the following thoughts:

1. He called 4x raise out of position with J4s. Not a very profitable call in the long run.
2. He called your flop bet of $35 making the pot $122. He needs to be right 28% of the time to be profitable. Not a bad call at this point, with 2 cards left left to come. He has 9 of 47 cards to make his flush, a 38% chance to make his flush.
3. He called your $80 bet on the turn making the pot $282. He needs to be right 29% of the time to be profitable and only has 9 of 46 cards to make his flush or 19% probability of making it. Great bet size that takes away his pot odds, you will be profitable in the long run against this guy playing this way. I am sure that was in your thinking when you made it. A little smaller bet would still have taken away his pot odds and a bigger bet may have made him fold denying you the additional value. You wanted a call at this point.
4. He makes his Jack high flush, doesn't come out betting, but checks. You bet $80, a value bet, not a bluff, it is a strong bet, especially with him not knowing your hand and only having the Jack high flush. If I was in his position I could easily put you on a flush and you would bet the same $80 you bet if you had the nut flush to get value or $80 bet if you had 7d,6d that could be a little vulnerable A nice bet size. If he had the nut flush, you would expect him to most times lead bet the river for value. Your bet should have him worried about you having a bigger flush and you would expect him to just call without the nut flush. His raise is a bluff trying to get you off anything up to the nuts and he will be a loser in that situation more often than not if you call.

I also think that calling him was the right thing to do. He will remember that his future bluffs are not going to be any good when he has air or even up to 2 pair. You are likely to call him even if you are just holding top pair with a good kicker, knowing that he will call down with a weak flush draw or gut shot straight draw or middle pair with a good kicker.

I think you win this hand calling his bluff check raise at least 70% of the time, given your read on this guy. He made a weak call pre flop, ok call on the flop and a bad call on the turn. Then he made a bluff into what easily could have been the nuts instead of just calling his Jack high flush.

I thought it may be of value to consider how he played his hand and the decisions he made more than what you did (and that has been discussed at length here). After considering how he played his hand, I would say you outplayed him and you will be the long run, big time, winner against him with no adjustments to your play! Maybe you already are, it has been a while since the original post. Have you had him at your table again yet. If so give us an update.