$600 NLHE Full Ring: Should I have gone for value on the river?

[MemphisGrind]

I'm trying to figure out if I should have gone for value on the river or just checked back.

This is a 2/5 No-limit game. (1,000 NL) at Horseshoe Casino in Tunica. I'm the effective stack at $1,415 (283bb) I'm on the button. Villain has $2,200 (440bb) and is in the big blind.

I am a Reg in this game and there are also 4 other Regs, there is one unknown and two spewy asians that I think were either brothers or friends. Anyways, they were supplying all the action to the table, opening hands out of position like 2/4o 10/3 and other rags but also showing some decent hands at showdown and a lot of river bluffs. He was involved in just about every hand. I had also played with this guy the day before in a 1/3 game and he played the same as he was in this game. I had been on this table for about an hour and a half when this hand happened.

(Hero) 283bb has 10d10s on the button

small blind posts $2 (.5bb)

big blind posts $5 (1bb)

fold/fold/fold/fold (Hero) opens for $25 (5bb) SB folds, BB completes $20 more(4bb)

Flop $52 (10.5bb) Qd 10c 2d

Villain Checks, Hero bets $35 (7bb), Villain calls $35 (7bb)

Turn $122 (24.5bb) 8c

Villain Checks, Hero bets $80 (16bb), Villain calls $80 (16bb)

River $282 (56.5bb) 3d

Villain Checks, Hero bets $80 (16bb), Villain tanks, and raises $200 (40bb) Hero tanks for a few minutes and calls the additional $120 (24bb)

Pot $682 (136.5bb) awarded to villain after tabling Jd4d

So, I called the river raise because villain has played this exact line many times and showed air while laughing. I knew he could have some flush draws in his range, but my 10d blocker mixed with his table image led me to the call. However it's not the call that I'm re-thinking it's the value bet on the river where I could have checked and saved $200

Love to hear everyone's thoughts. Thanks in advance.

 

[Poker_Mike]

I gotta ask....what hand or range of hands did you put this "hotshot" on after the river.

Were you hoping it was air or a sneaky 2 pair, which is strong?

I love playing vs. these types of players but sometimes they spank you.

 

[Beanfacekilla]

If the player is bluffing river a lot, they probably know they are showing cards. If I show a bluff, I know to shift gears after some point because we aren't gonna keep getting away with it.

anyways, if that's whats going on at the table, just check back on the river. I don't want to be c/r here on this river. I won't even give the dude a chance to do it.

Clear check on the river IMO based on table dynamics you describe.

as played I hate the call. You aren't going to have the best hand often here. What hands is he bluffing anyways. Pretty bad runout for middle set.

 

[MemphisGrind]

If the player is bluffing river a lot, they probably know they are showing cards. If I show a bluff, I know to shift gears after some point because we aren't gonna keep getting away with it.

anyways, if that's whats going on at the table, just check back on the river. I don't want to be c/r here on this river. I won't even give the dude a chance to do it.

Clear check on the river IMO based on table dynamics you describe.

as played I hate the call. You aren't going to have the best hand often here. What hands is he bluffing anyways. Pretty bad runout for middle set.

"When you say If the player is bluffing river a lot, they probably know and shift gears." I feel like you are assuming this player is on that level. However, if I didn't give enough details in my OP that this is NOT that type of player I do apologize.

I do see merit in checking back the river especially against players like this that I know are more than likely going to make a move to win the pot, however I feel like we are missing a ton of value not betting river, and is a leak IMO.

It's a mistake to assume this guy is only raising with a reasonable bluffing range. It can be any two cards. If he perceives weakness in a player he will make the last aggressive action in attempt to steal the pot.

 

[Beanfacekilla]

"When you say If the player is bluffing river a lot, they probably know and shift gears." I feel like you are assuming this player is on that level. However, if I didn't give enough details in my OP that this is NOT that type of player I do apologize.

I do see merit in checking back the river especially against players like this that I know are more than likely going to make a move to win the pot, however I feel like we are missing a ton of value not betting river, and is a leak IMO.

It's a mistake to assume this guy is only raising with a reasonable bluffing range. It can be any two cards. If he perceives weakness in a player he will make the last aggressive action in attempt to steal the pot.

I understand your reasoning here. But he called twice and the front door flush came in. It is a reasonable check back I think.

From the vague details this guy sounds like a LAG. In my experience, even shitty lags recognize when they need to actually have it.

If you feel like you need to bet for value in the spot, than do so. But I probably check back against this type of opponent to avoid tough decisions and potentially leveling myself.

I also check back for my own personal reasons (which may or may not apply to you). Those reasons are if this guy raises, and I call, and he has a flush, it may tilt me a little in real time, and the session may not be as productive as a result of that for the hours yet to come.

 

[MemphisGrind]

I gotta ask....what hand or range of hands did you put this "hotshot" on after the river.

Were you hoping it was air or a sneaky 2 pair, which is strong?

I love playing vs. these types of players but sometimes they spank you.

I gotta ask....what hand or range of hands did you put this "hotshot" on after the river.

Any two cards. This type of player is all over the Horseshoe in Tunica, they know that players are decently nitty and attempt to "exploit" that by playing overly aggro, with no defined range. In a lot of cases don't even look at their cards.


Were you hoping it was air or a sneaky 2 pair, which is strong?

I was hoping it was any hand that didn't include two diamonds. I was more convinced that it was air than two pair based on prior action and live reads.

I love playing vs. these types of players but sometimes they spank you

Yea for sure me too. I table select based on these factors. The first 20-30 min of my arrival time to the casino is scouting out the tables these players are sitting at. I expect the variance and am not afraid to mix it up with these guys.

 

[TenJack]

Here are my thoughts...I am pretty okay with the aaction up to the river. Now for that...

This bet is Very bad imo. We use the same sizing on the river as we did on the turn. The range we target for value is probably pretty thin, the draws have came in, and we know that villain is super aggro and might c-raise.

The sizing is my main issue. You never fold out anything better, a lot of times an aggro villain will just raise because it looks so freaking weak... It would be MUCH better to check this down mostly because we A: can't trust villain not to just pop you to 300ish with air to bluff you B: we only get 80 dollars more and can potentially lose the entire pot if we have to fold, and C: Your hand simply is no longer that great.

If you feel a need to bet this river it would be better do do something respectable like 200. But even that is bad.

 

[MemphisGrind]

Here are my thoughts...I am pretty okay with the aaction up to the river. Now for that...

This bet is Very bad imo. We use the same sizing on the river as we did on the turn. The range we target for value is probably pretty thin, the draws have came in, and we know that villain is super aggro and might c-raise.

The sizing is my main issue. You never fold out anything better, a lot of times an aggro villain will just raise because it looks so freaking weak... It would be MUCH better to check this down mostly because we A: can't trust villain not to just pop you to 300ish with air to bluff you B: we only get 80 dollars more and can potentially lose the entire pot if we have to fold, and C: Your hand simply is no longer that great.

If you feel a need to bet this river it would be better do do something respectable like 200. But even that is bad.

The value bet was simply for that... VALUE. I feel yes it is for thin value but not as thin as one would think against this type of player.. I don't want to bet $200 I want to allow two pair hands and even top pair hands to pay off the 80. I agree it allows us to be "blown" off the hand but in this case that didn't happen the re-raise gave me MORE than enough pot odds to call against his ATC raising range. If the check raise was a larger sizing I would have considered folding.

I do appreciate your feed back. And agree with some of it. Just feel like it's a massive leak to not go for thin value on this river, but I understand where you are coming from on your points.

 

[Beanfacekilla]

Here are my thoughts...I am pretty okay with the aaction up to the river. Now for that...

This bet is Very bad imo. We use the same sizing on the river as we did on the turn. The range we target for value is probably pretty thin, the draws have came in, and we know that villain is super aggro and might c-raise.

The sizing is my main issue. You never fold out anything better, a lot of times an aggro villain will just raise because it looks so freaking weak... It would be MUCH better to check this down mostly because we A: can't trust villain not to just pop you to 300ish with air to bluff you B: we only get 80 dollars more and can potentially lose the entire pot if we have to fold, and C: Your hand simply is no longer that great.

If you feel a need to bet this river it would be better do do something respectable like 200. But even that is bad.

+1. Very well said.

 

[Poker_Mike]

The sizing is my main issue. You never fold out anything better, a lot of times an aggro villain will just raise because it looks so freaking weak... It would be MUCH better to check this down mostly because we A: can't trust villain not to just pop you to 300ish with air to bluff you B: we only get 80 dollars more and can potentially lose the entire pot if we have to fold, and C: Your hand simply is no longer that great.

My issue is who is paying you on the river? You're headsup and if this was a player who was very ABC and straight-forward (undeveloped) then maybe he's paying you with a Q or 2 pair. But an Aggro player that seems to know what he's doing - if he truly has air he can't call your river bet - he has to fold or raise. So all you're doing on river is opening betting - even though it is soooo important to realize value from a strong hand.

One of your problems in this hand (and I feel you) is that you've been trying to deny him pot-odds the whole way. He might put you on AA at some point and is hoping to hit his straight or flush. You can see that on the flop HE thinks he has a straight AND flush draw...so he's going nowhere because he's such a good player...lol Basically he has you right where he wants you on the river.....betting your AA (or other strong hand that he has beat) and NOT believing that he has you beat..

He's such a wildcard that you could have overbet the pot on flop and turn and he's coming along - which is what you want generally.

Your betting behavior told him that you have a very strong hand.....great.....so he knows he's behind the whole way and probably just hitting a J would NOT be good enough for him. He's crazy but not insane? lol

Good luck again !

 

[braveslice]

So the bet size was too **** you like, but what was the correct line then otr?

a) Check / Fold
b) Bet ~200 / Fold
c) Check / Call

 

[TenJack]

So the bet size was too **** you like, but what was the correct line then otr?

a) Check / Fold
b) Bet ~200 / Fold
c) Check / Call

We are in position so we can close the action by checking behind. I feel like that is the correct play.

If we were OOP, then a check-call / check fold would be okay, depending on the odds he offered us. I think a bet-fold line would be inferior.

 

[braveslice]

We are in position so we can close the action by checking behind.

Poker is too hard for me =(

 

[playinggameswithu]

If the pot is big enough for you to be satisfied with then a check back is warranted. I usually check back the river to avoid getting blown off the hand with an all-in or big raise that I know I am defeated. I would just announced an all in on the turn. They don't calculate how much it is to villian they just see it as a "big bet that I get to see your cards after I call."

 

[Beanfacekilla]

We are in position so we can close the action by checking behind. I feel like that is the correct play.

If we were OOP, then a check-call / check fold would be okay, depending on the odds he offered us. I think a bet-fold line would be inferior.

I agree.

This particular thing happens a lot with poker players. The OP asks us in the title of he should V bet river. I am pretty sure OP thinks we are all wrong, and he is correct.

A straight got there OTT. Then front door flush comes in on the river. This dude (villain) check calls twice, and then C/R the river. And, we call off, and what do you know, he has a flush!

Even given the description of the V here, I promise when I looked over this hand the first time, before I even got to the results (which shouldn't be posted) I thought he would have the flush, and we shouldn't have bet this river.

I'm not a poker genius. I have played thousands of hours of live poker though (profitably). I don't think this is even that close, it's a check back on the river.


OP, you gotta be humble man. Why even ask for input when it just seems to me like you already have your mind made up that it's a V bet?

There seems to be a lot of this going on in the world of poker in general. People in these forums, and even folks I know personally are so stubborn when it comes to poker. One guy I know personally hasn't even put a legit sample in, and he has never even proven he can even beat the game, but he is very stubborn and makes a ton of mistakes, yet he won't listen to anyone and thinks he knows way more than he does (he shall remain nameless).


Its whatever now. I'm done with this thread.

 

[micromoi]

u played it right for me the right bet sizing all the way to the river, vilain was playing it like a draw when the diamond hit the river i would have checked, i dont see any value on betting there if he have a Q the diamond will scare him. U did bet and get raised what kind of hand he would raise with and still beat, i dont see any, its a fold for me

 

[John A]

If that's your read, then the first question you should be asking is what range of hands is your opponent calling with there. Will he call 3 streets w/ Qx or worse?

Otherwise you're betting to induce a bluff. I don't mind the value bet in general, but I'd have bet slightly more unless I was intentionally trying to induce a bluff. As played, I think I would have called and thanked him for betting so little, because really you should even have called larger vs. your 3 street betting range there.

 

[Beanfacekilla]

If that's your read, then the first question you should be asking is what range of hands is your opponent calling with there. Will he call 3 streets w/ Qx or worse?

Otherwise you're betting to induce a bluff. I don't mind the value bet in general, but I'd have bet slightly more unless I was intentionally trying to induce a bluff. As played, I think I would have called and thanked him for betting so little, because really you should even have called larger vs. your 3 street betting range there.

This is a really good point. I know I said I was done, but this post made me think of one more point.....


I have played and talked with a fair amount of live players, and I think it's fair to say that in my experience, many live players make incorrect reads or assumptions based on not enough info cause the game is slow.

And they underestimate their opponents frequently as well, once again, in my experience.

 

[MemphisGrind]

If the pot is big enough for you to be satisfied with then a check back is warranted. I usually check back the river to avoid getting blown off the hand with an all-in or big raise that I know I am defeated. I would just announced an all in on the turn. They don't calculate how much it is to villian they just see it as a "big bet that I get to see your cards after I call."

that's not how poker works... there is no, well I feel like the "pot is big enough for you to be satisfied with". It's about extracting max value and getting thin value in tricky spots. If you're scared to commit the chips then you shouldn't be playing that level of game. Poker is about making the most profitable decision each street. All in on the turn takes MASSIVE amounts of value away from us.

 

[MemphisGrind]

I agree.

This particular thing happens a lot with poker players. The OP asks us in the title of he should V bet river. I am pretty sure OP thinks we are all wrong, and he is correct.

A straight got there OTT. Then front door flush comes in on the river. This dude (villain) check calls twice, and then C/R the river. And, we call off, and what do you know, he has a flush!

Even given the description of the V here, I promise when I looked over this hand the first time, before I even got to the results (which shouldn't be posted) I thought he would have the flush, and we shouldn't have bet this river.

I'm not a poker genius. I have played thousands of hours of live poker though (profitably). I don't think this is even that close, it's a check back on the river.


OP, you gotta be humble man. Why even ask for input when it just seems to me like you already have your mind made up that it's a V bet?

There seems to be a lot of this going on in the world of poker in general. People in these forums, and even folks I know personally are so stubborn when it comes to poker. One guy I know personally hasn't even put a legit sample in, and he has never even proven he can even beat the game, but he is very stubborn and makes a ton of mistakes, yet he won't listen to anyone and thinks he knows way more than he does (he shall remain nameless).


Its whatever now. I'm done with this thread.

I am going to start with saying, actually, I am a very humble person. What you have seen through my comments may make you believe otherwise, but I believe you simply take it out of context. You have not seen or head the MANY phone calls, skype conversations and many other comments on other outlets about this. I consider myself a nobody in the poker world, thus the reason I have so many outlets and avenues of finding out how to try to reach the best decision.

I posted this literally the moment after it happened, and during that time I seriously was debating the value bet. I respect your feedback. However, If I feel like the point someone is trying to make is not properly made and the information is incorrect I will debate the comment. If someone gives enough solid evidence to prove otherwise I have no qualms with changing my viewpoint. The point of this is to discuss it and reach the most profitable decision. Just because you have an opinion or a few others agree with you doesn't make it the correct decision. There is key information missed that after being discussed will reveal itself.

This is just one of MANY places I have posted this question, I even submitted into the crush live poker radio show and the majority of feedback and thoughts given back to me by multiple professional players about the value bet is that it is the correct move. If my debating the comments to try and better understand and also help others understand every aspect of the hand makes me not a humble person, I'm sorry it appeared that way. I want to grow just like I'm sure everyone else wants to as well.

I will say I understand your reasoning for believing that I am "stubborn" but I hope you will reevaluate your statement after understanding the full context of everything. I spend a lot of time and effort on the theory and studying the game. My biggest lessons have come from my ability to listen. I hope I helped clear this up, and am sorry you had such a negative view of me. As always I will try and do better.

 

[MemphisGrind]

If that's your read, then the first question you should be asking is what range of hands is your opponent calling with there. Will he call 3 streets w/ Qx or worse?

Otherwise you're betting to induce a bluff. I don't mind the value bet in general, but I'd have bet slightly more unless I was intentionally trying to induce a bluff. As played, I think I would have called and thanked him for betting so little, because really you should even have called larger vs. your 3 street betting range there.

Yes John, all hands are in his range. I was not betting to induce a bluff. I was value betting. Even if he's holding air he will make the same move.

Against (this opponents) range. Middle set is crushing his range. One of the other comments made by my buddy who's a circuit pro and 2/5 5/10 player said that he would value bet larger on the river to allow myself a chance to fold to the river bet. seeing if I size my river bet larger the river check raise will be larger as well.

I agree, I'm obviously never folding river and I'm glad he picked such a small sizing the analysis at the time was about the value bet but I figured decently quickly after I posted the hand analysis that there was enough traction behind it and apparently upset some people that think otherwise...

 

[smknginmaine]

Yup. Go for value. Didn't work this time. Will more often than not. Don't overthink it. Well played. Poor, unlucky result.

 

[MemphisGrind]

My issue is who is paying you on the river? You're headsup and if this was a player who was very ABC and straight-forward (undeveloped) then maybe he's paying you with a Q or 2 pair. But an Aggro player that seems to know what he's doing - if he truly has air he can't call your river bet - he has to fold or raise. So all you're doing on river is opening betting - even though it is soooo important to realize value from a strong hand.

One of your problems in this hand (and I feel you) is that you've been trying to deny him pot-odds the whole way. He might put you on AA at some point and is hoping to hit his straight or flush. You can see that on the flop HE thinks he has a straight AND flush draw...so he's going nowhere because he's such a good player...lol Basically he has you right where he wants you on the river.....betting your AA (or other strong hand that he has beat) and NOT believing that he has you beat..

He's such a wildcard that you could have overbet the pot on flop and turn and he's coming along - which is what you want generally.

Your betting behavior told him that you have a very strong hand.....great.....so he knows he's behind the whole way and probably just hitting a J would NOT be good enough for him. He's crazy but not insane? lol

Good luck again !

I like this post. Agree with all points. I've since talked to a lot of my friends that play the same game with me and know this guy really well. I am currently compiling a list of all their reads, and all information I have plus what they have to better exploit him next time we play.

I agree with your analysis on the player. He is not "bad" just crazy and has his strategy that has worked for him. Which makes since because a lot of these players that play the 2/5 game at my casino are just taking shots and not properly rolled for it, so he's probably had massive success blowing players off hands.

Thanks for the insight and comment.

 

[Beanfacekilla]

I am going to start with saying, actually, I am a very humble person. What you have seen through my comments may make you believe otherwise, but I believe you simply take it out of context. You have not seen or head the MANY phone calls, skype conversations and many other comments on other outlets about this. I consider myself a nobody in the poker world, thus the reason I have so many outlets and avenues of finding out how to try to reach the best decision.

I posted this literally the moment after it happened, and during that time I seriously was debating the value bet. I respect your feedback. However, If I feel like the point someone is trying to make is not properly made and the information is incorrect I will debate the comment. If someone gives enough solid evidence to prove otherwise I have no qualms with changing my viewpoint. The point of this is to discuss it and reach the most profitable decision. Just because you have an opinion or a few others agree with you doesn't make it the correct decision. There is key information missed that after being discussed will reveal itself.

This is just one of MANY places I have posted this question, I even submitted into the crush live poker radio show and the majority of feedback and thoughts given back to me by multiple professional players about the value bet is that it is the correct move. If my debating the comments to try and better understand and also help others understand every aspect of the hand makes me not a humble person, I'm sorry it appeared that way. I want to grow just like I'm sure everyone else wants to as well.

I will say I understand your reasoning for believing that I am "stubborn" but I hope you will reevaluate your statement after understanding the full context of everything. I spend a lot of time and effort on the theory and studying the game. My biggest lessons have come from my ability to listen. I hope I helped clear this up, and am sorry you had such a negative view of me. As always I will try and do better.

I don't have a negative view of you at all. Sorry if I implied that or sounded that way.

Perhaps I was quick to assume you are like many others who simply won't listen to anything and have their mind made up beforehand.

I don't claim to be right. I just said what I think. That's it. I respect you and what you have to say about it.


I just think overall, many players (even players I know personally) are never going to get anywhere because they feel like they know everything already (which I definitely don't think I know everything, quite the contrary), and they post hands, and they receive feedback, but for whatever reason, they latch on to whatever they feel. Some of these players I know have not even proven they can beat the game. I dont know if that applies to you, it's irrelevant.


However, I just came from another thread where some dude was just saying he needed some help with strat, but at the same time he was also saying things that were indicative of his overconfidence with his game. The guy needs a lot of help, and he didnt even reply to my lengthy post saying blunt things to try and help him figure it out.

So yeah, I was kind of in this mode where I perhaps incorrectly thought you were like this.


I understand your reasoning for a river bet. Against this guy, you were doing it to induce a bluff raise. That's valid. Perhaps against this player, with your read, it's a solid play. But I often question people's reads especially if they are live players. Live players (including myself) tend to be worse in general than the online counterparts. The game is slow. People make assumptions without having actual proof, etc.

So that's why I said I think it's a check back. Not a good runout for middle set. And we are basically hoping this guy will make yet another river bluff.

I would check back there. But I am probably missing value sometimes. I will admit that. It seems like a spot where I would level myself into calling if he did raise. And even though dude is crazy, I dont know how long he will keep it up before he shifts gears and actually has it.


Blah blah I ramble. No disrespect intended. I can be blunt. Its whatever now I guess.

 

[Matt Vaughan]

I am a little late to the party.

After just reading through the hand one time, I didn't really have an issue with the line. We could debate sizing til we're blue in the face, and I don't like being blue in the face, so I'm not gonna bother with that at the moment.

I was surprised after skimming the thread that almost everyone was so vehemently against the value bet. I mean, we know the guy has a wide range to get to the river with, right??

But I really liked this point from bean:

I have played and talked with a fair amount of live players, and I think it's fair to say that in my experience, many live players make incorrect reads or assumptions based on not enough info cause the game is slow.

And they underestimate their opponents frequently as well, once again, in my experience.

Now, none of us were there (and I think that's important to state), so none of us can say for sure whether Memphis' reads were "right" or "enough info" to do what he did. All we can comment on is the information as given.

That being said, it IS really important to remember that our reads aren't perfect, and just because we've seen someone be wild doesn't mean they'll be wild in THIS SPOT. Seriously. I only even know to harp on this because I've been burned by it so. many. God. Damn. TIMES.

Whew. Okay. Anyway....

What I'm trying to say is that this is a REALLY subjective spot. On one end of the spectrum we've got the player pool average, against whom I would not go for this bet (and DEF not the call) on the river. But on the other end is that our info is pretty good here and maybe even undersold to the point where the river bet is an absolute slam dunk and in reality it may be more to induce than anything else.

The last little nitpicking side note I'll toss in here is that one thing I know I sort of "forget" really often in-game when playing against really wide opponents is that just because their range is wide doesn't mean it makes NO SENSE.

A lot of times these guys will widen their range to an absurd degree and show up with all offsuit connectors and gappers, etc... And they'll play basically any 2 suited cards. (Like J4 of diamonds, for example.)

But the problem is, a lot of times that's their line. Suited cards good, connecting cards good. But in a spot like this, they will never ever EVER in a million years show up with K7o or 84o or J4o. Those guys exist, but that might not be this guy, and that's an important distinction. And what they actually get to the river with is often shockingly more narrowed than what they have on the flop.

Again. None of us were there. Only OP was there. But I just figured I'd toss some wood on the fire and watch it burn a bit... it's cold tonight.