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BlueNowhere
Legend
Silver Level
Oh **** it, I'll do it again.
been here for 40 hands. sat every seat 7 times bar utg and utg+1
presuming we don't limp/raise we can't 3-bet from utg.
utg+1 we have (6*0.2) 1.2 chances to 3-bet
CO we have (7*0.2)*2 2.8 chances to 3-bet
button we have (7*0.2)*3 4.2 chances to 3-bet
SB we have (7*0.2)*4 5.6 chances to 3-bet
BB we have (7*0.2)*5 7 chances to 3-bet
so 20.8 chances to 3 bet. x/20.8 = 0.16 so x = 3.3 which is close to 3 as all our assumptions on who raises when isn't accounted for but 100% never going to be 1 unless we're at a ridiculous table. Think its fair to say we can nearly guarentee it wasn't just the one 3-bet. oh and I havne't done the probabilites accurately was just a rough guide. Didn't really fancy doing the big calculation but I think itsgoing to be close to 3. Also calcualtions presume randomly dsitributed raises and no 3-bets prior to it getting to you, I think the true number would be 2-3.
been here for 40 hands. sat every seat 7 times bar utg and utg+1
presuming we don't limp/raise we can't 3-bet from utg.
utg+1 we have (6*0.2) 1.2 chances to 3-bet
CO we have (7*0.2)*2 2.8 chances to 3-bet
button we have (7*0.2)*3 4.2 chances to 3-bet
SB we have (7*0.2)*4 5.6 chances to 3-bet
BB we have (7*0.2)*5 7 chances to 3-bet
so 20.8 chances to 3 bet. x/20.8 = 0.16 so x = 3.3 which is close to 3 as all our assumptions on who raises when isn't accounted for but 100% never going to be 1 unless we're at a ridiculous table. Think its fair to say we can nearly guarentee it wasn't just the one 3-bet. oh and I havne't done the probabilites accurately was just a rough guide. Didn't really fancy doing the big calculation but I think itsgoing to be close to 3. Also calcualtions presume randomly dsitributed raises and no 3-bets prior to it getting to you, I think the true number would be 2-3.
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BlueNowhere
Legend
Silver Level
he has roughly 20 opportunities to 3-bet shown in my post above. 16% of that is roughly 3. He raised pre-flop 3 times and re-raised pre-flop 3 times is the only conclusion to be drawn from that. where are you getting maximum of 7 opportunities from. We have seen nothing that suggest he could have only had 7 opportunities to 3-bet. Are you telling me in 40 hands he will have only seen a raise in front of him 7 times? That would be working on the assumption the table is the nittiest table ever.
This was a reply to a comment that no longer seems to be here? It's not jsut me rambling on.
This was a reply to a comment that no longer seems to be here? It's not jsut me rambling on.
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Stu_Ungar
Legend
Silver Level
Yeah I deleted my last post because whilst we can tell how many hands he has taken an aggressive action with we cant calculate the number of 3bets he made (thats why stats need to converge)
However given that we know he plays 22/15 and given that we can be sure he has made 6 aggressive actions, its highly unlikely that half of them were 3bets.
That is about the extent of what can be calculated.
Being as this guy is 22/15 and PFR and VPIP converge quicker than anything else, I just dont believe this guy has 3bet more than once (twice at the most)
These guys just dont play like that.
The 16% seems to fit the idea that he 3bet only once far too snugly for it to be ignored in this sample size.
I just dont believe that a 6 max player playing 22/15 has 3bet 3-6 times, not when we know 100% he has raised 6 pots.
A lot of this has to be done by feel, thats why 3bet stats are so unreliable under a few hundred hands.
However I am almost certain he has 3bet only once and almost certain he has not 3bet 3 or more times.
We will see when micro responds with a count.
However given that we know he plays 22/15 and given that we can be sure he has made 6 aggressive actions, its highly unlikely that half of them were 3bets.
That is about the extent of what can be calculated.
Being as this guy is 22/15 and PFR and VPIP converge quicker than anything else, I just dont believe this guy has 3bet more than once (twice at the most)
These guys just dont play like that.
The 16% seems to fit the idea that he 3bet only once far too snugly for it to be ignored in this sample size.
I just dont believe that a 6 max player playing 22/15 has 3bet 3-6 times, not when we know 100% he has raised 6 pots.
A lot of this has to be done by feel, thats why 3bet stats are so unreliable under a few hundred hands.
However I am almost certain he has 3bet only once and almost certain he has not 3bet 3 or more times.
We will see when micro responds with a count.
bgomez89
Resident Thugmaster
Silver Level
Nathan Williams
Poker Pro
Silver Level
Haha, best post in this thread. Made me laugh out loud after skimming through the battle.
I'm gonna pop in here real quick and say that my initial thoughts on the hand are fold preflop. But as played I would just call the flop. He pretty clearly likes his hand a lot. I am not really afraid of anything. I'd rather just let him barrel the turn as well and then I will ship it in.
Stu_Ungar
Legend
Silver Level
BTW the reason I deleted my post was I realised that reading your post had led me off course.
What you have done is to try and make assumptions about how often he had the opportunity to 3bet.
We dont know
That led me to then start thinking of it in terms of orbits, which is incorrect as its starting to make assumptions of his 3 bet oppertunities that we cant make given such a small sample size.
What you have done is to try and make assumptions about how often he had the opportunity to 3bet.
We dont know
That led me to then start thinking of it in terms of orbits, which is incorrect as its starting to make assumptions of his 3 bet oppertunities that we cant make given such a small sample size.
Stu_Ungar
Legend
Silver Level
Yeah that was my initial thought.
Simply fold.
The reason I went down the 3bet stat route was that some people seem to think that everyone is so insanely agressive that we can play back at or start flatting 3bets early in a session.
So what I was trying to do was to show how few 3bets you need for a stat of 16% over 40 hands.
Its just so low that you cant really do much other than fold.
brank
Back in!
Silver Level
Ya, too many possibilities in such a small sample. Its totally possible they got a bunch of big hands in some sweet spots or that they're a really agro player, it could still go both ways.
When I said he has 3 bet once in 40 hands I wasn't going with any math, I was just commenting on the fact that this guy could still be 3 betting for value here. There a tons of times where I get 3 bet by a guy with a 20% 3 bet and Im ready to ship it in until I realize that that hand sample is only 50 hands and it was only twice(or possibly three times before I get called out on my maths) that they 3 bet. After a couple hundred hands their 3 bet stat fall back down to a normal %.
I also use the 3betPF stat so its more accurate for pre flop decisions.
So obv fold pre and like I said before, as played I'd just call the flop bet.
Stu_Ungar
Legend
Silver Level
The more I think about that, only having 6 opportunities to 3bet does seem low.
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BlueNowhere
Legend
Silver Level
Given the information this is the only way we can work it out and the most reliable. If we know how often we see a raise in front of us (as I worked out) then we know opportunity to 3-bet leaving only the unknown of how many times he 30bet which can be easily worked out. Your method was estimating bot hunknowns rather than working one out and solving from there which is why I believe it's going to be close to the numbers I gave.
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BlueNowhere
Legend
Silver Level
Should really finish reading threads before I post things. Yea 3/6 of his bets being 3-bets is high but certainly not ridiculous when we consider it's only 40 hands and he could've quite easily had a hand worth 3-betting each time. Seen it is 3 now. given how much we see raises in front of us thoguht it had to be around that.