$5 NLHE 6-max: Flopped trips in a 3bet pot hand

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BlueNowhere

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fwiw once seems right. he has raised 6 times (0.15*40). the most that can be is 1/6 as x/6 = 0.16 so x =1 , it's weird that pt doesn't give it as 17% though.
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

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It does feel aggressive however.

16% is high

if he had only 3-bet one time his 3-bet percentage would probably be something like 3%, not 16%

It is EXTREMELY unlikely that he only had a chance to 3-bet 6 times in 40-ish hands, agree/disagree?

NO what your missing is this.. look at the definition of PFR (thats why I got you to post it)

It is the number of times a player makes any raise.

It includes opens, 3bets, 4bets, shoves; any raise

Over the 40 hands played the player has a PFR of 15%

15% of 40 is 6

so his opens + 3bets + 4bets + shoves can never total more than 6

His 3bet figure is greater than 0 and less than 6 and his PRF + 3bet equals 6
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

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fwiw once seems right. he has raised 6 times (0.15*40). the most that can be is 1/6 as x/6 = 0.16 so x =1 , it's weird that pt doesn't give it as 17% though.

Yeah it is. Maybe some stats are truncated rather than rounded.
 
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baudib1

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NO what your missing is this.. look at the definition of PFR (thats why I got you to post it)

It is the number of times a player makes any raise.

It includes opens, 3bets, 4bets, shoves; any raise

Over the 40 hands played the player has a PFR of 15%

15% of 40 is 6

so his opens + 3bets + 4bets + shoves can never total more than 6

His 3bet figure is greater than 0 and less than 6 and his PRF + 3bet equals 6


yeah, I think he 3-bet 3-6 times, where do you get that I said it was more than 6?


If he played 40 hands and someone raised before him 25 times

and he 3-bet 4 times

he would have a 3-bet % of 16.

this is possible/plausible/likely

you realize you are saying he only had a chance to 3-bet 6 times in a 40-hand session and did so 1 time?

Do you think 3-betting one time in 6-7 orbits is a lot? Because 16% is a lot.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Yeah it is. Maybe some stats are truncated rather than rounded.
More likely that MM just looked at it in a pop up saw 16.67 and then typed 16 here than it being truncated.
 
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baudib1

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wait

your 3-bet% can certainly be higher than your PFR%

your PFR% is the times you raise/total number of hands dealt

3-bet is times you reraise/times there was a raise before you

so there you are clearly wrong if you are talking about percentages.
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

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I've never seen anybody with a stat of 0.8 truncated to 0, always been rounded up to 1.

You can get it to truncate after say 10

I have similar stuff set up with number of hands in that it truncates to xK notation after 10K hands but displays in full lower than that..
 
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baudib1

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The truncated 16.667 to 16 is possible but seems unlikely that it would be 1 in 6.
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

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wait

your 3-bet% can certainly be higher than your PFR

your PFR% is the times you raise/total number of hands dealt

3-bet is times you reraise/times there was a raise before you

so there you are clearly wrong if you are talking about percentages.

We will find out when micro actually counts, there really isnt anymore to debate is there?

your going for 3-6 now right?
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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yeah, I think he 3-bet 3-6 times, where do you get that I said it was more than 6?


If he played 40 hands and someone raised before him 25 times

and he 3-bet 4 times

he would have a 3-bet % of 16.

this is possible/plausible/likely

you realize you are saying he only had a chance to 3-bet 6 times in a 40-hand session and did so 1 time?

Do you think 3-betting one time in 6-7 orbits is a lot? Because 16% is a lot.
So you think he 3bet 4 times in 40 hands but only opened himself twice? Highly unlikely.
 
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baudib1

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So you think he 3bet 4 times in 40 hands but only opened himself twice? Highly unlikely.

A 3-bet % of 16 is highly unlikely as well.

take a look at a sample of 40 hands where you 3-bet at least one time and figure out the numbers.
 
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PotluckXXI

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Wow

You guys take your stats seriously. This is the most entertaining thread I've seen all month.

My life is sad :(
 
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baudib1

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So you think he 3bet 4 times in 40 hands but only opened himself twice? Highly unlikely.

A 3-bet % of 16 is highly unlikely as well.

take a look at a sample of 40 hands where you 3-bet at least one time and figure out the numbers.

It's even more unlikely that he only had 6 chances to 3-bet in 40 hands. this would be the most passive table ever with a raising range of about QQ+
 
Stu_Ungar

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A 3-bet % of 16 is highly unlikely as well.

take a look at a sample of 40 hands where you 3-bet at least one time and figure out the numbers.

At the start of a session my 3bet stat is through the roof. 16 is low.
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

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ok then in 40 hands how many times are you 3-betting and what is your percentage?

I dont care at this point

I really should have stuck to my new rule of not posting after I said I wouldnt.

I thought I was out but you pulled me back in.

He probably 3bet 12 times or so in the first 7 orbits.
 
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baudib1

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Why are you a rude ass? I'm asking for clarification because this is a pretty fundamental misunderstanding for one of us.

I'm not concerned at all about being right or wrong but in finding out where the misunderstanding is.

How many times do you think he faced a raise in 40 hands? Why don't you answer any questions that I've asked?
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

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Why are you a rude ass? I'm asking for clarification because this is a pretty fundamental misunderstanding for one of us.

How many times do you think he faced a raise in 40 hands? Why don't you answer any questions that I've asked?

I honestly dont know

What I do know is that PFR includes 3bets and we have a figure of 6 to play with.

16% of 6 is very close to 1 and that seems to fit with the number of times I would expect a 22/15 to be 3betting in 40 hands.
 
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baudib1

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um, this is a 22/15 with a 3-bet % of 16. generally 22/15s have a 3-bet % of 2-8 or so

what am I missing?

It really sounds to me that you started with an assumption of how many times it is (1) and then found some calculations that seemed to result in 1 or "close to it" and didn't bother to figure out what the numbers would be, but I may be wrong.

If you work through it logically, I think you will see what I'm saying.
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

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um, this is a 22/15 with a 3-bet % of 16. generally 22/15s have a 3-bet % of 2-8 or so

what am I missing?

He cold calls raises?

40 hands?

The bleeding obvious?
 
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BlueNowhere

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lets assume pfr of 0.2 (for the table)

0.2*40 = 8. So only 8 times has their been a raise i his time at table However some of these happen when he was already out the hand so actual number tends towards 6 so as stated earlier x/6 = 0.16 therefore x = 1

for him to have 3-bet 6 times there would have to be a raise in front of him nearly every hand. we can discount UTG as he won't limp/raise so only actually 5 seats where he could get raised which would mean he has chance to 3-bet every time he palys a hand which is ridic.
 
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BlueNowhere

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Actually think what I wrote above here is wrong. It's late and I'm just getting myself confused with numbers. Each individual has a pfr of 20%, not the table.

Basically did the math of each person having a pfr of 20% and taking into account position I worked it out to be 3 3-bets, not the one I originally said. I think baudib may be right here.
 
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