$5 NL HE 6-max: KA top pair on flop... player betting into me. Should raise the flop?

B

Bluebottle88

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pokerstars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.02/$0.05 - 6 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

UTG: $7.04 (141 bb)
MP: $8.47 (169 bb)
CO: $2.75 (55 bb)
BU: $9.70 (194 bb)
SB: $21.45 (429 bb)
BB (Hero): $19.31 (386 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BB with K A
UTG raises to $0.12, 3 players fold, SB 3-bets to $0.45, Hero calls $0.40, UTG calls $0.33

Flop: ($1.35) 5 4 K (3 players)
SB bets $1.29, Hero calls $1.29, UTG folds

Turn: ($3.93) 3 (2 players)
SB bets $3.77, Hero calls $3.77

River:
($11.47) Q (2 players)
SB bets $7.25, BB (Hero) folds

Total pot: $11.47 (Rake: $0.48)
SB wins $10.99
 
A

Ace of Spad3s

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Villain isn't betting into you here. He is the aggressor in this hand, and continues that line postflop.

He 3-bets an UTG raise here, and continues betting OOP. What is villains range here? Any stats on villain?

Pocket 4's or 5's are unlikely to be in his range here on such a 3-bet OOP so you don't teally have to worry about a set there. So what is he playing here on a K high flop?

AJ+ / QQ+? Maybe KQs?

Could be betting top pair with flushdraw, but his bet sizing looks like he wants to outprice you here, so most likely not the flushdraw.

Looks to me there are 2 hands that have you beat, KK and AA. So this basicly comes down to what read you have on villain. If he is loose and tends to bet a lot, I think I'd raise on him on that flop. If he's a huge nit, odds are he has KK or AA, maybe.

But what was your plan here? You call him twice, only to fold to an expected river bet? Maybe you were better of raising on the flop, probably fold on a shove?
 
F

fundiver199

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Preflop
This is kind of an awkward spot facing an open and a 3-bet in front of you. If stacks were 100BB effective, then this is probably mostly a 4-bet or fold situation. But you are almost 400BB deep against SB and with position on him. That means you dont really want to stack off any hands preflop other than pocket aces, and for that reason I think, its fine to just call his 3-bet, also considering that he is 3-betting an UTG open, so he should be on a pretty strong range.

Flop
This is definitely not a raise, since if you get all the money in, you will usually be against one of the few hands, that beat you, which is mainly AA and KK. Its obviously not a fold either, since you flopped TPTK. Maybe it could be a raise, if he bet something really small like 25% pot, but he bet almost full pot, so he is building a very large pot already.

Turn
Pretty big brick and I think another easy call.

River
This is obviously a very large river bet for the stakes, but its not surpricing, that he made it, because he set it up with his sizing on the flop and turn. So really you should have anticipated this already on the earlier streets, and its basically a hand reading situation. Obviously you could be beat, but many of the hands, that potentially beat you, likely dont play this way. K3-K5, 54 or 44-55 most likely dont 3-bet pre. He might 3-bet QQ or KQs, but those hands dont bomb the flop and turn like this. Maybe KQs but definitely not QQ. So the only realistic hands, you lose to, are KK-AA and maybe 1 combo of KQs. Which is still no more than 5 combos.

And then the question is, could he be doing this with another AK? If so thats 6 combos, that you chop with. And there is a busted flushdraw, which you dont block. So I think, this one is pretty close, and without reads I probably stick in the call. But I can also see the fold being reasonable, since many players at this level are very unbalanced in their bet sizing. And this guy is kind of screaming from the mountain top, that he has exactly pocket aces and want to get max value from top pair.
 
S

Station_Master

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This should be a cold 4bet pre. As played you have capped your range and told villain you dont have AA or KK. You are deep too so I would raise to something like $1 pre.

As played villains sizing seems very value heavy, I.e. AK, AA or KK. I.e. 4 combos you lose to and 4 you chop. So on river you are not really getting the odds you need (25%) and I think a fold is good. I dont think I would fold before the river, though even on turn it's not looking good for you!
 
georgi krastev

georgi krastev

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Given that I call the flop with TOP-TOP, also on the turn, (bets on every street are ~pot), I should call the river too...

This hand looks like a sick bluff from villain (I had a similar case, 4bet with 54s, i call him with Ahigh OTR - pure air), or there are AA's (most of the people play them like this way).
 
F

fundiver199

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I.e. 4 combos you lose to and 4 you chop.
There are 6 combos of AK not 4, which makes calling a little better. But on the other hand one has to ask, what AK is trying to get paid by on the river, if Villian is thinking on that level. I think, there are some players at 5NL, where this is basically always AA and pretty much never anything else. And as you say, its already starting to look not so good, when he bomb the turn.
 
S

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There are 6 combos of AK not 4, which makes calling a little better. But on the other hand one has to ask, what AK is trying to get paid by on the river, if Villian is thinking on that level. I think, there are some players at 5NL, where this is basically always AA and pretty much never anything else. And as you say, its already starting to look not so good, when he bomb the turn.
Yeah I messed up my combo counting! so its not so bad to call down but a pretty bad spot anyway.

By not 4 betting pre, hero is capped so if AK is not calling what is? But on the other hand, like you say, I expect to see AA alot here
 
Aballinamion

Aballinamion

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PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.02/$0.05 - 6 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

UTG: $7.04 (141 bb)
MP: $8.47 (169 bb)
CO: $2.75 (55 bb)
BU: $9.70 (194 bb)
SB: $21.45 (429 bb)
BB (Hero): $19.31 (386 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BB with K A
UTG raises to $0.12, 3 players fold, SB 3-bets to $0.45, Hero calls $0.40, UTG calls $0.33

Flop: ($1.35) 5 4 K (3 players)
SB bets $1.29, Hero calls $1.29, UTG folds

Turn: ($3.93) 3 (2 players)
SB bets $3.77, Hero calls $3.77

River:
($11.47) Q (2 players)
SB bets $7.25, BB (Hero) folds

Total pot: $11.47 (Rake: $0.48)
SB wins $10.99
Complicated spot to put it lightly: at these limits players aren't bluffing that much and considering all the action preflop and sizings used by villain, we could consider folding our AK easily. Unless you have very specific readings on this player doing things like accelerating the board with dominated hands, this is a clear fold.
 
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