5/10 limit - AKs

[F Paulsson]

As I've mentioned in the blog, I'm working on a new series of articles concerning limit flop decisions. This is one of the hands I'm analyzing. I have my analysis finished, but I'm curious about others' views.

Villain in this example is 76/16/1.11, meaning that he volountarily pays to see 76% of flops (VP$IP), raises 16% of his hands preflop, and has an aggression factor of 1.11. Adjusted for his VP$IP, 1.11 is HUGE.

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with K♥ A♥
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 3-bets, Hero caps, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.
Flop: 4♦ 9♣ J♠ (10.4SB, 2 players) UTG+1 checks, Hero ...

What should Hero do here, and (much more importantly) why? What are the fundamentals of this hand?

Please don't give a "what" without a "why."

 

[alan1983]

Id bet for info and so i wouldnt give him a shot at a free bluff on turn.

Dont play limit so im guessing chance hes folding if hes hit nothing is slim.

Ive capped preflop so even if he hit nothing and i check, hes gonna take a swing at it on turn and then id have no idea where i stand.

Id bet and if i get raised id guess hes hit a j or has a pocket pair. If he just calls and checks turn and it hasnt helped us, i think id check 2 and hope he had AQ or something, coz from his preflop betting he may be checking to check raise on turn when bets go up.

 

[mrsnake3695]

Well, you have nothing, just an ace high. Its a hand that can get one into big trouble in limit. Villan isn't going anywhere so you will have no idea if he hit or not no matter what he does. If you bet you will most likley get raised and you won't know if it's him just being aggressive or if he hit. If he was TAG or even slightly loose but not a maniac like this guy seems to be I would bet/fold here to a raise but in this case his raise might mean anything or nothing. I would prob check/call one small bet and hope to hit an ace or king on the turn, if not I'm done with the hand. Your ace high might be good, but you will never know. I think a bet for info is a mistake since with villans aggression it really wont give you any information and will just cost you one more bet to see the turn.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

I'll preface this as always with limit hands by saying I have little experience with limit.

That said this looks like a pretty obvious check to me. Take a look at the flipside and let's say we do bet, why are we betting? Are we betting for value? What exactly makes us think our hand is good here?. Are we bluffing? Why are we bluffing for one small bet into a 10 SB pot - what exactly do we expect UTG+1 to be folding? Are we betting 'for information'? What information are we actually getting if villain calls or even check-raises? Are we betting to charge a draw? Apart from QT and T8, there are no draws out there (and a 16% pf raiser isn't capping (edit: limp-3betting) preflop with either of these hands, right?).

Seems to me there's absolutely no reason to bet, so why bet? Take the free card and see what happens on the turn.

Edit: Just noticed the preflop action, the limp-3bet is pretty strange - has villain tried it before?

 

[F Paulsson]

I had not seen villain LRR (limp/reraise) before, no. It's a rare move for sure, but it doesn't necessarily signify strength. QT and T8 may well be hands that villain decides to randomly limp/reraise with (I honestly don't remember what he had, so I'm not being results-oriented here). Ed Miller wrote an article saying that limp/re-raising from bad players tend to be random hands a lot more often than premiums. Sort of a "oh, just one more player along with me? Bah, I'll re-raise my 76o then, and take back initiative" way of thinking.

It's also important to notice that we're in position, and that villain wasn't the one who capped preflop.

At the micro-limits, you can't presume that you're up against players who are even aware that there are other players present at the table, but at $5/$10, even the maniacs are usually somewhat conscious beings. I capped preflop - he most likely noticed. If we bet this flop, is there any hand at all that he could fold?

 

[alan1983]

I'll preface this as always with limit hands by saying I have little experience with limit.

That said this looks like a pretty obvious check to me. Take a look at the flipside and let's say we do bet, why are we betting? Are we betting for value? What exactly makes us think our hand is good here?. Are we bluffing? Why are we bluffing for one small bet into a 10 SB pot - what exactly do we expect UTG+1 to be folding? Are we betting 'for information'? What information are we actually getting if villain calls or even check-raises? Are we betting to charge a draw? Apart from QT and T8, there are no draws out there (and a 16% pf raiser isn't capping (edit: limp-3betting) preflop with either of these hands, right?).

Seems to me there's absolutely no reason to bet, so why bet? Take the free card and see what happens on the turn.

Edit: Just noticed the preflop action, the limp-3bet is pretty strange - has villain tried it before?

if he bets on turn and card hasnt helped you, dyou fold or call? I think this should be considered on the flop. Like i said i never played limit, but if he check calls your bet on flop, chances are hell check turn, then you can check and youd have seen river for half amount of what itd take if you check and he bets turn.

I dont think hell check raise flop with nothing. Youve shown strength pf and postflop, I mean hes aggressive but is he just splashing money around regardless?

And if ehs planning to check raise, hes much better off doing it on turn than on flop

 

[F Paulsson]

if he bets on turn and card hasnt helped you, dyou fold or call? I think this should be considered on the flop. Like i said i never played limit, but if he check calls your bet on flop, chances are hell check turn, then you can check and youd have seen river for half amount of what itd take if you check and he bets turn.

I dont think hell check raise flop with nothing. Youve shown strength pf and postflop, I mean hes aggressive but is he just splashing money around regardless?

And if ehs planning to check raise, hes much better off doing it on turn than on flop

I agree with this. Maniacs survive on being bullies and getting people to fold. When I cap preflop, I'm effectively putting on a big sign that says "I got a premium hand" and in shorthanded limit hold 'em, that almost always means going to showdown.

If he has a monster - JJ or 99 - he'll be looking to checkraise the turn, not the flop. But I have the option of checking behind on the turn if I don't like the card that comes off, and that way I'll get to showdown for a fairly small price. Note, though, that if I check behind on the turn, I must call the bet on the river that will certainly come.

 

[stormswa]

bet

I say bet, that board most likely didn't help him either, if you bet and get raised you can lay down the hand easy on the cheapest street. If you bet and get called and the turn dosent help you then it will most likley be checked to you and you can decide if it is worth firing a second bullet or take the free cards and hope to improve on the river.

If you were out of position this would be totally different but seeing as you have position on this guy I think you have to bet. If you check the flop and turn does not help you then most likely villain is going to bet and you are going to have to lay it down.

Just noticed his stats, that makes it really hard to bet here but I still think you have to. But look at his stats he is a pretty loose player I might even call if he re-raised me, im putting him on a weak hand like AJ.

 

[joosebuck]

i think i bet here also to keep us with the momentum. if he does have the nuts/near nuts and we are drawing to either one of 3 kings with aces dead to aj, or a 3 aces with the kings dead to jk or kk we can keep it cheap as he will probably c/r the turn and not the flop. we bet this cheap street and check the turn and call the river

 

[stormswa]

well

actually didn't realize there was a J on the flop thought it was all low cards, check-raise is very possible now seeing as I put him on AJ and I bet he puts you on AK or AQ. I would still bet but most likely would fold to any aggression by him.

 

[F Paulsson]

If we bet, and he flips over AJ and checkraises, we still have to call.

 

[joosebuck]

because we're more than 10% to hit whatever card of ours isnt dead? (eg a if he has kj qq kk and k if he has aj qq)

 

[ChuckTs]

*ChuckTs reads quitely but doesn't dare enter the odds-filled world of FLHE...

 

[F Paulsson]

because we're more than 10% to hit whatever card of ours isnt dead? (eg a if he has kj qq kk and k if he has aj qq)

Almost. We're 6.7% to hit one of our three outs and the pot is giving us 13:1, meaning that we're break-even at 7.1% (1/14). But since he was the only one who flipped his cards over, we still have some implied odds to toy with so the 0.4% deficiency is easily made up for.

 

[Stefanicov]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
that is why i dont play limit

 

[joosebuck]

Jesus tits, well at least i had the concept just not the correct numbers.

 

[F Paulsson]

Well, I cheated and used a calculator. I know the rough numbers though and at the table I would have used "this is a close decision in a big pot and I have position." And I'm using the word "close" in a "give or take one percent" kinda way.

 

[joosebuck]

fpaul, do you think youll be playing any wsop events this year?

 

[F Paulsson]

Not a snowball's chance in hell, for a whole slew of reasons. One is that I don't really play tournament, the other is that I'm moving into a house in three months and my fiancée will kill me if I'm in Las Vegas the weeks leading up to our wedding.

 

[Bombjack]

Trouble is,
a) you don't know they're actually outs (someone flopped 2 pair or a set)
b) you don't know which card is an out, so you don't know when you've hit it - by calling you're giving reverse implied odds

 

[mrsnake3695]

It's my understanding that in limit it's not just the bets you win but also the bets you save. That's why I said earlier that I would check call the flop and fold if I didn't improve. Sure he's loose and might have nothing but because of his possible range he could have hit any part of it also. Plus, just because he's loose doesn't mean he can't have a hand.

If your check/call it only costs one small bet to see the next card, with given the odds is ok. After that it is big bets and it's not worth it to chase. Remember it's not one hand it's one long session. I would save the bets here and not put alot more into the pot without a real hand.

 

[AceZWylD]

Based on the info that we have on villian, this is the type of player that you love to win against, but hate playing against. It's tough to put aggressive players who see a lot of flops on a hand.
That being said, he check/re-raised preflop. If he had a hand, he would have bet out origionally, and the re-raise is to try and induce a fold. If I had to guess, i'd put him on small suited connectors here, as this is the only time I would make this maneuver.
Against this player, you don't want to give him a free bluff, but you also don't want to bet into a hand he already has. The flop wasn't horrible for you, but you can't exactly pinpoint the hand villian is sitting on.
In this position, I bet out to see if I can induce a fold. If there is no fold, then you hit nothing and it's pretty easy to get off of this hand. He may be on a bluff, but do you want to pay to see his bluff when you're holding nothing?

 

[mrsnake3695]

Well, based on what f told us about villan, there si no way he folds to one small bet and a good chance he raises whether he has a hand or not. So why pay 2 snall bets to see the next card when we can for one?

 

[F Paulsson]

It's my understanding that in limit it's not just the bets you win but also the bets you save.

While this is true, there's another limit principle that comes into play here: Win the big pots.

This discussion is going well, I think. I'll post my thoughts tonight when I get home, and see what you guys think.

 

[alan1983]

It's my understanding that in limit it's not just the bets you win but also the bets you save. That's why I said earlier that I would check call the flop and fold if I didn't improve. Sure he's loose and might have nothing but because of his possible range he could have hit any part of it also. Plus, just because he's loose doesn't mean he can't have a hand.

If your check/call it only costs one small bet to see the next card, with given the odds is ok. After that it is big bets and it's not worth it to chase. Remember it's not one hand it's one long session. I would save the bets here and not put alot more into the pot without a real hand.

mrsnake you have position on him, so theres no check calling the flop. he already checked, you could check also, but then youd have to prob. call a turn bet, whereas if you bet here and he calls therell prob. be a check by him on turn as well, and then you wouldve seen the river with one small bet on flop rather than having to call his turn bet, which hed be encouraged to fire after you capped preflop and checked flop.