$400 NLHE 6-max: 400nl straight on scary board in 3b pot, call or shove?

[acky100]

Why is he not betting more to get protect against a flush draw if he has an overpair then?

Not saying your wrong, you know more than me so I'd just like to understand why.

because then his range would be face up, And he doesn't wanna protect against flush draws he wants to give them bad odds to chase them, betting half pot on the turn denies someone drawing to a flush the correct odds, so he forces them to make a mistake if they call with a flush draw, obviously betting more than hp is better if they will call with a FD but just trying to say that we shouldnt just think of he bets hp he's drawing, generally this is true especially at lower stakes but a 400nl reg should be good enough to not have bet sizing tells, if he isn't he won't be a 400nl reg for long.

 

[hackmeplz]

If he's a decent reg he doesn't have obvious bet sizing tells in 3bet pots, i don't think you can just assume hes drawing cause he half pots the turn, flop bet is super standard size for 3bet pot too.

This.

And yeah preflop's probably a fold but call can't be that awful and I was tilting so **** it

 

[John A]

Fold pre-flop.

Trying to think of a polite way to say and explain this because I honestly don't want to sound rude... If you're a reg at 400nl you should know that you need to ship that river. It's really not even close honestly especially considering you're in a 3-bet pot and not expected to show up with a 5 very often. Against some really good regs that can fold committed overpairs in this spot, I would consider just calling. But never folding.

 

[JCgrind]

Yeah i dont think we get 30% folds unless he is capable of barreling this obviously bad barrel card with a hand like AQo or AKo frequently

not only do i think we get some overpairs some % of the time to fold, but i think hes 3b range is going to be wide enough here for him to show up with a bunch of airballs.

this is really sketchy, because villain and OP are unknown, but lets assume villain isnt a nitty retard (described as aggro 6m reg).

he obv has his value 3b range of im guessing TT+, AKo, AQs+. now hes got to have a light 3b range too. im going to assume that he has about x2 more light 3bs in his range than value hands- total speculation but youd have to assume theres more air than value if hes a decent aggro reg.

thats a value range of 3.8% and a light 3b range of 7.8%, so 11.8% which id say is fairly reasonable/standard.

hard to know how to make this up but im gunna anyway for arguments sake;
A2-A9s, 22-66, 65s-T9s, 68-T8s

we now have 57% equity vs his range on the turn.


i dont think just because he double barrelled we can rule out a lot of air here. i also think we can expect folds from 99-TT a lot of the time, obv the air too, as villains not nearly pot committed. can prob expect to be looked up by JJ+, obv sets, as well as A5ss and 55 on the odd occassion- maybe even some weird 78ss stuff too.

conclusion, all this massively depends on villain tenancies, but i still feel comfortable that were getting folds 30% of the time here

 

[JCgrind]

Yeh i like it better than trying to call down, would like to know villains real 3bet range vs our UTG and that he can definitely have NFD's that barrel the turn here but yeah we have so much equity i think its pretty good

again, speculation, but i think this is a really weird line for NFDs from a reg. id expect a decent flop Cbet/shove turn line or a check raise/shove at some point with NFD+over type hands


tbh i dont think the turn is a bad barrel card either as if he has air hes going to want to rep overpairs and thats exactly how one'd play. its getting weird leveling, but hed know that we know that its a bad barreling card, so its a good barreling card because hed know we know that he can only really have a premium to barrel it.

if he has any kind of bluff 3b range (which obv he has too), hes not just going to be half potting flops then giving up w/ his air. its too transparent

 

[acky100]

I doubt he's 3betting that much vs an UTG and even if he is i think he prolly would bet bet with a FD considering most of them have gutter outs and maybe chances to make trips or something, and he cant rely on us betting when he checks here maybe, i dunno, i just don't think its such an easy shove turn anymore considering most of his range is big pairs combo wise and we need him to fold 30% of his range.

 

[JCgrind]

no more to add til OP tells us tenancies lol

 

[youregoodmate]

because then his range would be face up, And he doesn't wanna protect against flush draws he wants to give them bad odds to chase them, betting half pot on the turn denies someone drawing to a flush the correct odds, so he forces them to make a mistake if they call with a flush draw, obviously betting more than hp is better if they will call with a FD but just trying to say that we shouldnt just think of he bets hp he's drawing, generally this is true especially at lower stakes but a 400nl reg should be good enough to not have bet sizing tells, if he isn't he won't be a 400nl reg for long.

Okay thanks, that makes a lot sense.

 

[hackmeplz]

To people saying fold pre, how much money do you think I'm losing by calling compared to folding pre?

 

[baudib1]

Suited connectors play terribly in 3-bet pots vs. strong ranges. You raised UTG and he 3-bet OOP, you have very little FE postflop.

 

[vanquish]

To people saying fold pre, how much money do you think I'm losing by calling compared to folding pre?

a lot

 

[JusSumguy]

To people saying fold pre, how much money do you think I'm losing by calling compared to folding pre?

Flop an up and down straight and ask that. Flop an up and down St. Fl. and ask that. Flop four flush and ask that.

-

 

[baudib1]

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/lightbulb-moment-speculative-hands-201804/

 

[JCgrind]

To people saying fold pre, how much money do you think I'm losing by calling compared to folding pre?

Tbh I thought it was pretty close, but Baudib does make a very good point I forgot to consider

Suited connectors play terribly in 3-bet pots vs. strong ranges. You raised UTG and he 3-bet OOP, you have very little FE postflop.

 

[hackmeplz]

You realize UTG is hijack this hand right? I think I'm maybe losing $1-2 by calling this preflop.

 

[baudib1]

...

 

[Deco]

The difference between villain vs HJ and villain vs UTG ranges is generally slight if not negligible. The difference between villains vs CO and vs HJ range is a gulf.

I fold this from the button nevermind the HJ.

 

[hackmeplz]

...

Well it's a max of $24...

The difference between villain vs HJ and villain vs UTG ranges is generally slight if not negligible. The difference between villains vs CO and vs HJ range is a gulf.

I fold this from the button nevermind the HJ.

I think folding this on the button would be a pretty big leak unless one of us was a nit.

 

[baudib1]

suited connectors don't play well against strong ranges.

 

[acky100]

Have you got a big sample to look up how much you are losing with calling these types of hands? If its only 1-2$ then thats great keep doing it, but i don't see how you could maintain such a small loss when he 3bets your UTG/HJ, maybe BTN if you're a good player but there is a huge world of difference between UTG/HJ and the BTN.

 

[Deco]

I think folding this on the button would be a pretty big leak unless one of us was a nit.

Whats your F3B?
Mines 67%.

Look at the call 3bet% figures and their winrates Holdem Manager recorded.
http://faq.holdemmanager.com/questions/330/Plugging+Leaks+-+Based+on+Stat+Ranges+(Article+#1)

If you still don't believe me that calling 3bets super wide is a huge leak run this filter on your HM database and I'll run the same one. (can't do it now as my 6max hands are on another database, if you play FR over a good sample I could).

Player 4-6
Faced preflop 3bet = true
PFR = true

Post your standard dev for this filter as well if you can so we can see if it's converged. We'll need a good deal over 100K hands I'd imagine but if you have less than that post anyway and we'll see how converged it is.

 

[hackmeplz]

I don't call this that often preflop, and if I'm losing $1-2 I still would fold long-term it's just when I'm tilting I'm like **** it w/e I'll light $1-2 on fire and call. Obviously it's a losing play, obviously it's bad, but I don't think it's that bad. So I can't really look up how much I'm losing because I hardly do call these types of hands.

Also my HEM/PT databases have both ****ed up and I have more like a 10k total sample let alone 100k so yeah I can't really give you a long-term result.

@Deco 67% means they literally can profitably 3bet you with ATC. That cannot possibly be good especially given you'd be IP.

 

[JCgrind]

i only f3b like 35%, and obv this isnt great but -4BIs over 150k hands id say isnt all that bad?

id say an aggro 6m reg is going to be defending liberally from the BB, regardless of the fact that OP opened UTG. i mean, we dont even know OPs UTG opening frequency is, so i dont think you can say that BB necessarily has a strong range. Then theres still the obvious benefit which is super applicable to 400NL of balancing our range by making this call with low suited connectors on occassion, which isnt going to show a profit when you filter in HEM, but will make you much tougher to play against and consequently more profitable in other spots.

iono i just dont think this is as much of a snap fold as everyones implying...

 

[Deco]

I don't call this that often preflop, and if I'm losing $1-2 I still would fold long-term it's just when I'm tilting I'm like **** it w/e I'll light $1-2 on fire and call. Obviously it's a losing play, obviously it's bad, but I don't think it's that bad. So I can't really look up how much I'm losing because I hardly do call these types of hands.

Also my HEM/PT databases have both ****ed up and I have more like a 10k total sample let alone 100k so yeah I can't really give you a long-term result.

@Deco 67% means they literally can profitably 3bet you with ATC. That cannot possibly be good especially given you'd be IP.

Where are you getting the $1-2 figure from? You would be losing far more money than that.

A 67% fold to 3bet does not mean I am folding 67% of 3bets to people who bet any two cards. Think about it.

 

[Deco]

i only f3b like 35%, and obv this isnt great but -4BIs over 150k hands id say isnt all that bad?

Very surprised that's as unconverged as it is (graph is all over the place). I'll post mine and the std dev on my 6max hands when I get my database back. Looks like I should be reconsidering the usefulness of that filter.

A F3B of 35% is defo a leak imo.