200nlhe with a crappy turn

joosebuck

joosebuck

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no stats on villian, unfortunately. the minraise kind of weirds me out. im thinking it has to be something strong. either a set (44 not unlikely.. aa, maybe, but doesnt feel that likely.) or a combo draw (Axd/23d/etc)... or a poorly played flush draw. 2p is possible, but so vulnerable to this flop i feel like he would have 5bet the flop and gotten all in..

pokerstars Game #11614735224: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2) - 2007/08/21 - 16:53:51 (ET)
Table 'Mensa II' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Timer76 ($121.45 in chips)
Seat 2: treysfull21 ($197 in chips)
Seat 3: Sus999 ($169.40 in chips)
Seat 4: Klommel ($228.35 in chips)
Seat 7: freekings ($280 in chips)
Seat 8: joosebucklol ($441.25 in chips)
Seat 9: Pumuckel1 ($175 in chips)
Klommel: posts small blind $1
freekings: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to joosebucklol [Kh Kc]
6/4/02 has returned
joosebucklol: raises $6 to $8
Pumuckel1: calls $8
Timer76: folds
6/4/02 leaves the table
treysfull21: folds
Sus999: folds
Klommel: folds
freekings: folds
*** FLOP *** [4d As Kd]
joosebucklol: bets $12
WhatsUpAA joins the table at seat #6
Pumuckel1: raises $12 to $24
joosebucklol: raises $41 to $65
Pumuckel1: calls $41
*** TURN *** [4d As Kd] [5d]
joosebucklol: checks
Pumuckel1: bets $102 and is all-in
 
Last edited:
tenbob

tenbob

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Errrr call and cry when you see JQs ???? I cant see a fold here tbh, if he has a flush he played it really weirdly.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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Wow, this looks quite a bit like Axd to me... AQd or AJd especially. I think the combo draw often raises more for FE or to get all-in, whereas the AQ or AJd thinks their hand alone might be best, even without the diamond draw, but knows it's probably not in great shape if the pot gets huge. Very gross spot

Just under $250 in the pot, $102 to call.. so getting almost 2.5:1, and you're about a 4:1 dog to fill up or quad. He could have AK, stupidly played A4, a set of 4s, be on a bizarre bluff..

Another thing is, many players would make a smaller suckbet here when they hit their flush, or even check behind. However that tends to be kind of transparent, so I don't doubt that he could make this shove with the flush

Readless this is really hard. I'd call because I think the minraise preflop narrows his range of flushes that beat you enough (even though it really stinks of Axd) to make it reasonable. And we can still fill up
 
joosebuck

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whoops, wrong area. can someone move this please?
 
J

joeeagles

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I like the way you sized your flop reraise, making the pot big with a strong hand. He's getting 3 to 1 to call it with $102 behind so I guess it could be a flush.

I'm terrible at folding sets (I go on denial), and honestly although the flush is possible I could't fold here either. If you're behind odds aren't good to chase, but I think a certain % of times this is a hand like AdQx or AdJx, where villain figures if he's behind he has 9 outs to the nut flush and 3 to make 2 pair.

As it is, w/o reads, it could be anything, or maybe its just me trying to justify a call.
 
Bombjack

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I think it's really close (versus an average player)...

Given that you'll draw out on him sometimes, it has to be a flush almost all the time for this to be a fold. However I think this is pretty much always a flush or maybe teh Aces. Without a read... cry and fold.
 
blankoblanco

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minor correction: when i said minraise "preflop" i of course meant "on the flop"
 
B

broncos53

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His Bet was too obvious i think he has AQ here i would have to call even if he does have the flush you still have 7 outs on river....
 
Bombjack

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Why would anyone put all their money in here with AQ? Only reason would be as a semibluff with [Ad]. But if they were any good they'd have folded on the flop.
 
robwhufc

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Why would anyone put all their money in here with AQ? Only reason would be as a semibluff with A♦. But if they were any good they'd have folded on the flop.
But why would anyone on a flush draw raise the flop running the risk that they are re-raised without odds to call? A flush draw would have surely called to see another card (or folded).

I'd have led out again post turn to be honest, so wouldn't be having this dilemma.
 
Bombjack

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Lots of people raise this flop with a flush draw, to see the river cheaply (turn bet less likely) and to fold out hands like QQ or JJ.
 
A

alan1983

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rob if he had AdQd, hed be pretty comfortable with this flop.

Remember there was only one raise preflop, so KK-AA are still not things villain is specially worried about.

If he has AdXd he thinks hes comfy and minraises. When hes reraised he now knows joose has at least AK, KK, AA. So he calls.

Even if he had QdJd, he could minraise hoping for a check on turn, buying some cheap card.

I dont think he has AK here, he could have 44 i guess, maybe he put you on higher set on flop and decided to make a move on turn but thatd be a real stretch.

Theres a lot of stuff he could have here but all are unlikely, most likely is flush. However if he made a stupid call on flop with something like AdQ offsuit, he could be making a move for it here.

Bleh, i call and close pokerstars before seeing results.
 
T

Threads13

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I don't think you can get rid of this unless. I also think you could have bet more on the flop. You have a big hand and you want to build a big pot so I think you can make a pot-sized bet. This sure would have made the hand easier to play from there.
 
winneronline

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Really tough spot mate. With no stats and no reads deciphering the flop minraise is kind of difficult. You played it perfectly until the turn. Go with with your instinct here and decide what to do. I think that noone will blame you for either decision :)
 
J

joeeagles

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I also think you could have bet more on the flop. You have a big hand and you want to build a big pot so I think you can make a pot-sized bet.


He hit a set on the flop, and bet $12 into a $19 pot. He gets minraised to $24, and he then makes it $65 to go and is able to get a call, so the pot was $149 (~75 BB's) after the flop betting and his opponent had $102 left.

When you hit a set your goal is to build a big pot, possibly getting his whole stack by the river, w/o losing your opponent in the process. I think thats what he was able to accomplish. There was nothing wrong at all with his flop betting, it was actually very well done and his last raise on the flop was nicely sized. He was definitely on his way.

I also disagree with Rob on leading out the turn. If he has a flush he'll shove back anyway so nothing changes, but if he doesn't have it he might fold to our bet where instead our check might induce a bluff and we get his remaining $102. So basically checking this turn only allows us to get more and it rarely will make us lose value (just those times where he checks behind us and folds to our river bet, but with the pot being $149 that will happen a small % of times).

I look at this hand and just can't picture myself folding here, although I admit that the chance of a flush is strong enough to make this laydown. It'd be a good opportunity to make a solid fold but I'm sure I wouldn't be able to.
 
T

Threads13

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He hit a set on the flop, and bet $12 into a $19 pot. He gets minraised to $24, and he then makes it $65 to go and is able to get a call, so the pot was $149 (~75 BB's) after the flop betting and his opponent had $102 left.

When you hit a set your goal is to build a big pot, possibly getting his whole stack by the river, w/o losing your opponent in the process. I think thats what he was able to accomplish. There was nothing wrong at all with his flop betting, it was actually very well done and his last raise on the flop was nicely sized. He was definitely on his way.

I also disagree with Rob on leading out the turn. If he has a flush he'll shove back anyway so nothing changes, but if he doesn't have it he might fold to our bet where instead our check might induce a bluff and we get his remaining $102. So basically checking this turn only allows us to get more and it rarely will make us lose value (just those times where he checks behind us and folds to our river bet, but with the pot being $149 that will happen a small % of times).

I look at this hand and just can't picture myself folding here, although I admit that the chance of a flush is strong enough to make this laydown. It'd be a good opportunity to make a solid fold but I'm sure I wouldn't be able to.

I am not saying that the flop betting is terrible. However, I think the original flop bet could have been a couple bucks larger if not a pot-sized bet. With this board you are going to get a little action with the FD and the two high cards. He could easily get his opponent in with a pot-2/3-push line.
 
blankoblanco

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But why would anyone on a flush draw raise the flop running the risk that they are re-raised without odds to call? A flush draw would have surely called to see another card (or folded).

hence Axd where x is probably a big card. Top pair good kicker + flush draw
 
joosebuck

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i called. my thoughts were that a combo draw gets all in on the flop. he flipped AKo and i raked in the moneyz
 
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broncos53

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i called. my thoughts were that a combo draw gets all in on the flop. he flipped AKo and i raked in the moneyz

Thats what i figured two pair at best....if he had made the flush hes not going to go all in hes going to slow play it and most likely he hadnt called off 85 dollars witha flush draw
 
A

alan1983

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Did he have the Ad?

Im wondering why he didnt come over the top on flop with AK.

Did he put you on a high set, made a desperate call, then thought he found a way to make a move?

Or did he think he had best hand and decided to commint you on turn?
 
NineLions

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he flipped AKo

Why didn't I think of that?

Maybe because it's played so tightly; no 3 bet preflop, minraise on the flop.


Always a challenge when you don't have reads yet.
 
T

Threads13

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hence Axd where x is probably a big card. Top pair good kicker + flush draw

Are you guys saying that you don't normal raise the flop with FD's or that you just wouldn't on this board since our FE may be a little low?
 
blankoblanco

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Are you guys saying that you don't normal raise the flop with FD's or that you just wouldn't on this board since our FE may be a little low?

No, I'm saying villain minraised, which means he's rarely looking for fold equity with only a draw, IMO. That's why I figured he has some type of made hand and not a bare draw.. the made hand I was worried about was pretty much only Axd. I said I'd reluctantly call, so I'm hoping/thinking he can have non-drawing made hands (like AK or 44) often enough for it to be profitable
 
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joeeagles

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I am not saying that the flop betting is terrible. However, I think the original flop bet could have been a couple bucks larger if not a pot-sized bet. With this board you are going to get a little action with the FD and the two high cards. He could easily get his opponent in with a pot-2/3-push line.

Fair enough.

The only problem that I have with a pot size bet on the flop is the danger to lose him. You need to protect against the flush draw, no doubt, but you don't want him folding either when you have a set of kings, because really the chances of villain having 2 diamonds really aren't that high. Of course it's good to be aware that the board has FD, but you really can't come out firing big because of it. A 2/3 pot bet is perfect IMO, and that's what he did ($12 bet, pot was $19 - rake). The ideal is have him play back at you like happened here.

The amount you bet on the flop pretty much has to be consistent with what you've done prior to this hand as far as c-betting in a pot that you raised PF. If you've been betting the pot every time in that situation then you should do so again, but if you've been doing 2/3 of the pot you shouldn't change it. In this situation the c-bet could be the only action you get, cause after that he might fold when you bet the turn, so you can't mess it up and also you need to make sure you don't become predictable.
 
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