200nlhe with a crappy turn

joosebuck

joosebuck

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yea that is my standard c-bet range, too. if i check that flop he either takes a free card (oh great, no idea where i am with him then) or gets suspicious/worried with just an ace and not 2p.
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

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Probably a leak in my game that I give players credit for being able to think. He probably didn't realize he was bluffing. AK has to be only a small part of his range here though, with only one K left in the deck. The rest has to be flushes and 44-putting-you-on-AK.
 
A

alan1983

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Probably a leak in my game that I give players credit for being able to think. He probably didn't realize he was bluffing. AK has to be only a small part of his range here though, with only one K left in the deck. The rest has to be flushes and 44-putting-you-on-AK.

I think theres a gd chance he did realise he was behind.

he realises it after joose's sold reraise, but doesnt have disciplin to fold top two so calls. Then when turn comes he thinks he still has a shot at pot.

I think i remember Pumuckel from 100NL and hes a gd enough player if i recall correctly.

Cause if he thought he was ahead on flop, itdnt make much sense to slowplay flop since joose was showing he wasnt slowing down and with the draw out there.
 
T

Threads13

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Fair enough.

The only problem that I have with a pot size bet on the flop is the danger to lose him. You need to protect against the flush draw, no doubt, but you don't want him folding either when you have a set of kings, because really the chances of villain having 2 diamonds really aren't that high. Of course it's good to be aware that the board has FD, but you really can't come out firing big because of it. A 2/3 pot bet is perfect IMO, and that's what he did ($12 bet, pot was $19 - rake). The ideal is have him play back at you like happened here.

The amount you bet on the flop pretty much has to be consistent with what you've done prior to this hand as far as c-betting in a pot that you raised PF. If you've been betting the pot every time in that situation then you should do so again, but if you've been doing 2/3 of the pot you shouldn't change it. In this situation the c-bet could be the only action you get, cause after that he might fold when you bet the turn, so you can't mess it up and also you need to make sure you don't become predictable.

If you have a reason to think that a $19 bet wiill lose him where a 2/3 bet won't then sure. However, I am under the belief that the easiest say to get this hand AI is with just a bet-bet-bet line here. If you bet the pot twice you will be halfway there and you can bet the same amount again on the river. 2/3 is the smallest bet I would make in this spot without a read. You are really hoping that he has an A that will go the whole way with you. The main money is going to come from that in this hand. I think a 3/4 bet would be a fine happy medium if you think your opponent may get away from his Ax type hands. If we make a $15 bet on the flop the flop the turn will be almost $50 with $150 behind. This would make for a pot sized bet and then a push on the river or another 3/4 bet and then about a pot-sized bet on the river. This would be ok.

You are talking about using game theory with your made hands and semi-bluffs. I think game theory shouldn't be the main consideration here. You have a big hand so make the bet size that will get you AI. If you are varying your bet sizes at all you should be able to make a pot sized bet without your opponents saying "a PSB is a set, run!" :)
 
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