$2 NLHE 6-max: Good call odd math? A2s in 3 bet pot

[OmarRD7]

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.02(BB)
BTN (21) [VPIP: 36.4% | PFR: 18.2% | AGG: 0% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 50% | Hands: 12]
SB (106.5) [VPIP: 50% | PFR: 50% | AGG: 66.7% | Flop Agg: 100% | Turn Agg: 100% | River Agg: 0% | 3-Bet: 100% | Fold to 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 2]
BB (240) [VPIP: 2.8% | PFR: 2.8% | AGG: 50% | hands: 36]
UTG (101.5) [VPIP: 16.7% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 6]
HERO (99.5)
CO (108.5) [VPIP: 39.3% | PFR: 35.7% | AGG: 36.4% | Hands: 28]

Dealt to Hero: A♣ 2♣

UTG Folds, HERO Raises To 2.5 BBs, CO Folds, BTN Calls 2.5, SB Raises To 10 BBs, BB Folds, HERO Calls 7.5, BTN Calls 7.5

Hero SPR on Flop: [0.35 effective]
Flop (31): 5♣ 5♦ J♣
SB Bets 30 (Rem. Stack: 66.5), HERO Calls 30 (Rem. Stack: 59.5), BTN Calls 11 (allin)

Turn (102): 5♣ 5♦ J♣ 9♠
SB Bets 66.5 (allin), HERO Calls 59.5 (allin)

River (228): 5♣ 5♦ J♣ 9♠ 3♣

Spoiler

BTN shows: 9♣ 8♣
SB shows: Q♦ Q♣

HERO wins: 151.5
HERO wins: 62

Hi there, poker friends. A long time has passed since I was here. But well, today I'm giving another shot to my poker skills.

This time I share this hand. My main question if I made the right calls in base to the context and odds.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
I think, this is a fold or 4-bet spot with the 21BB stack in between you and the 3-better. The issue is, when you just call, BTN is also going to either call or jam, and neither of those outcomes are great for you. At 2NL there is not much light 3-betting going on, so I think, its fine to just fold.

Flop
It sucks, that he almost potted it, and its kind of close. You could be dead to JJ, but if he has a hand like QQ-KK, your odds are just good enough to take a 1-card draw, if you factor in implied odds. And he is probably not bluffing considering, that BTN has half his stack in the middle already. So yeah. If I got here, I would probably also call and hope to bink it on the turn.

Turn
Now its a pure math decision, since he have moved all in. Work off the table with a free program like Equilab to get the answer for spots like this. You had to call 58,5BB to win 221BB, so you needed 26,9% equity to break even. Against JJ+ you had 20,08%, and this is even ignoring the fact, that BTN will occationally win the main pot. Clear fold.

 

[MidnightSleepless]

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.02(BB)
BTN (21) [VPIP: 36.4% | PFR: 18.2% | AGG: 0% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 50% | Hands: 12]
SB (106.5) [VPIP: 50% | PFR: 50% | AGG: 66.7% | Flop Agg: 100% | Turn Agg: 100% | River Agg: 0% | 3-Bet: 100% | Fold to 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 2]
BB (240) [VPIP: 2.8% | PFR: 2.8% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 36]
UTG (101.5) [VPIP: 16.7% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 6]
HERO (99.5)
CO (108.5) [VPIP: 39.3% | PFR: 35.7% | AGG: 36.4% | Hands: 28]

Dealt to Hero: A♣ 2♣

UTG Folds, HERO Raises To 2.5 BBs, CO Folds, BTN Calls 2.5, SB Raises To 10 BBs, BB Folds, HERO Calls 7.5, BTN Calls 7.5

Hero SPR on Flop: [0.35 effective]
Flop (31): 5♣ 5♦ J♣
SB Bets 30 (Rem. Stack: 66.5), HERO Calls 30 (Rem. Stack: 59.5), BTN Calls 11 (allin)

Turn (102): 5♣ 5♦ J♣ 9♠
SB Bets 66.5 (allin), HERO Calls 59.5 (allin)

River (228): 5♣ 5♦ J♣ 9♠ 3♣

Spoiler

BTN shows: 9♣ 8♣
SB shows: Q♦ Q♣

HERO wins: 151.5
HERO wins: 62

Hi there, poker friends. A long time has passed since I was here. But well, today I'm giving another shot to my poker skills.

This time I share this hand. My main question if I made the right calls in base to the context and odds.

Preflop:
I’m not a fan of calling the 3 bet from the SB with A2s. You only have 2 hands on him so his stats don’t mean much at this moment in time. I’m a bigger fan of 4 bet bluffing or folding (especially with button left to act) playing a large multi way pot OOP not hugely comfortable with – but you called so we move on.

Flop:
SB defiantly has all the over pairs and quite a few AQ+ type hands. I wouldn’t expect to see him with a set of Jacks very often (probably not in his 3 betting range vs UTG open)
SB bets basically pot in this flop.
You have 9 outs to the flush and 3 to the A (although this may not be good quite a bit of the time) – also to consider Qc or Kc may also be very bad for you. So potentially only 7 clean outs.

Again with one person left to act I’m not sure I like this call. BTN could defiantly have a Jack and would likely call this bet

Turn:
Sb shoves for 2/3rds pot and you call

Your hand has not changed since the flop although now you have less chance of hitting those 7-12 outs.
Best case scenario you have 12 outs so need to be good about 25% of the time.
Worst case scenario you have 7 outs so need to be good about 15% of the time
Absolute worse case scenario your already dead to JJ

The river shove (and your effective stack size) gives you 26% pot odds.
So not quite the right price for the best case scenario and nowhere close for the worst case.

I feel in general, across the 3 streets, this type of line will be losing you money in the long run.

Hope that helps

 

[elizeuof]

On the flop you call a bet of 30BB that was the size of the pot, and half of what was left of your stack, making the pot bigger than your stack, I am uncomfortable in these situations, or I fold right on the flop, or I'm going allin, I would hardly just call, if you were willing to get involved in the pot and for all your chips even if you didn't get anything on the turn, I believe it would be better to go allin right away.

Most of the time when a player makes this type of play it indicates that he has a strong hand and is afraid that the opponent will complete a flush or a straight, or even that an A appears and he only has QQ or KK.

 

[OmarRD7]

wow... thanks all for your messages!

I always put in my calculations that the SB will call too, and that would improve my odds to get break-even.

Also, I calculated that always my calls would be around of 20-25% odds, giving me a good price.

So, I never though that I was over calling. Also, I always put to BB in KK-QQ. So, expecting a flush or pair was good enough for me.

 

[fundiver199]

SB defiantly has all the over pairs and quite a few AQ+ type hands. I wouldn’t expect to see him with a set of Jacks very often (probably not in his 3 betting range vs UTG open)

If he is 3-betting AQ, then he is almost certainly also 3-betting JJ. Its a 5-handed table, so even Hero is "UTG", he is actually HJ, which is late middle position. Ranges should not be particularly tight here, but that being said its 2NL, and many players 3-bet a very narrow range in general. So I would not expect to many pure bluffs like A4s or JTs.

You have 9 outs to the flush and 3 to the A (although this may not be good quite a bit of the time) – also to consider Qc or Kc may also be very bad for you. So potentially only 7 clean outs.

This is actually a good point. Not drawing to the nuts cuts down on our implied odds, and this is kind of problematic, when we strongly rely on those to justify a call. Improving on an A is also not the greatest thing, since we might not always get paid by KK or QQ, and sometimes Villain could have an AK/AQ type hand, which he is bluffing with.

 

[freddydr87]

Preflop i would have folded,in NL2 players arent 3beting you with 98s or KTs and that caind off stuff(even vs thouse hands u have a flip 50/50), so easy fold pre flop.
On the flop it could be a litlle nith but is an easy fold to,iff hey dont have the boat allready it could be that 2 off your clubs give them the boat,so you dont have 9 outs flop u have 7,wish gives you 28% equity(iff u arent drawing dead allready),is a brake even call flop,so why calling knowing that at the long run u arent winning anything.
And on turn u are complity out off odds,dont have more implied and your equity wasnt enough to call flop now on turn are even worse.
My advise is to keep it simple,aboid thouse situations off marginal wins(for players playing NL1k is ok to have 2 or 3%),you can get the money very easy from weaker oponents in this stakes.