[100nl FR]

[feitr]

lol I realize you probably typed this fast but...you're basically saying "any hand that will fold to a c-bet can't call, and the rest of the hands will call/raise you".

It all comes down to what type of range we can pin him on preflop, what portion of those hands will call a c-bet and of course if the c-bet is profitable after factoring those ranges in.

Nice discussion, guys. This has sparked a reminder for something else I've thought about recently and I'll post it later tonight or tomorrow.

As i said, i PERSONALLY would put him on TT, AK, JJ or QQ. I personally don't think that he would call a 3 bet with AQ or AJ, because you could so easily ahve AK and it would be almost impossible for him to play the hand from there on out (unless ofc he gets a flop like he did). So, 2 of those hands, TT and AK, he will fold to almost any c-bet. Doesn't matter if it is a little over half the pot, or it is 2x the pot. Unless they really like putting money into an inside straight draw or hope they hit TPTK with AK. The other 2 hands, he has you completely dominated and will either call and slowplay or raise.

HOWEVER, as i said before, i don't play NL100, so i don't know the frequency of 3-bet light, so i don't know what hands he would put you on, so i don't know whether or not he would call a 3bet with AJ AQ.

IF his range is only TT-QQ, AK then the c-bet will be worthwhile, since he'll only hold on to his hand probably a little over 50% of the time. At least playing NL50, that is what i would put him on.

77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo

I don't really see him holding on to the vast majority of those hands preflop vs a 3bet. But again, i don't play NL100 so i can't really pinpoint exactly what hand range with which he would call a 3bet preflop.

 

[F Paulsson]

I don't really see him holding on to the vast majority of those hands preflop vs a 3bet. But again, i don't play NL100 so i can't really pinpoint exactly what hand range with which he would call a 3bet preflop.

He's in position. I don't think I'd fold too much of my early position opening range to a 3-bet in the blinds. I'll fold hands that I steal with on the button, sure, but these are all hands that have at least some value.

Depending on who's doing the raising, I might toss KQo and AJo though.

 

[feitr]

whoops...ok i totally read it wrong. I thought that Hero was on button and the villian had already checked flop :S

Um, ok revised position then. I would think that his raising range is probably something like AJs+ KQ and TT+. I think you can eliminate KK+, because of no 4-bet preflop. Since he has position, lets say he throws away AJ but will keep AQ. I would also think he would throw away KQ to a 3 bet, but lets even say that he would keep it.

So he has potentially TT-QQ, AQ, KQ and AK. He throws away TT and AK to a cbet, and keeps JJ,QQ and KQ and AQ. So, even in that situation, you'll probably still get him to fold about 1/3 of the time with a c-bet, so a 1/2 pot c-bet should break even. Ofc, if he is tighter, he will probably throw away KQ, and maybe AQo, in which case it would probably be profitable.

 

[SavagePenguin]

He raised to 4 BB from terrible position.
You re-raised to 13.5 BB from worse position (about another 8 BB).
He called.

I think he has something better than A/Q. T/T would be on the low end of the pocket pair spectrum.

Of these hands, you will chase him off T/T or A/K. Everything else is going to to get called or re-raised.

I suck at math. Mathmatically, will 4 Tens, 3 Jacks, 3 Queens, 3 Kings, and 3 Aces give out A/K and T/T 2/3 as many times as it will JJ+QQ+AA+KK?

 

[tenbob]

Meh, I see where you are coming from FP. If betting is a losing play, then check/call is out of question.

The thing with checking is that we are telling our opponent one of two things, we have....
1) Either flopped huge.
2) Missed the flop and are done with the hand.

Betting is representing more strength that a plain and simple pot odds problem. By 3 betting OOP we are representing one hand, and its not AK. Leading the flop re-inforces this idea, and if your sitting in villians seat, and are a nitty player, we fold 1010-77 almost always, we might even force a fold from KQ type hands, and we fold all but the big combo draws and the sets/2pair hands. We try to call down light with AQ and we give credit to the big pair.

IF you think the villian in this hand is capable of calling with 99 then don't bet here, we bet for value against him in the future. I also think that we have to consider some meta stuff here, 3-betting and check/folding is telegraphing a weak holding to the cluster of regs hanging around these limits, personally im pre-pared to take a small hit on a hand like this to avoid .

Oh FP, you'll never find me in a position like this with QTs

 

[ChuckTs]

Taking away hands that reasonably call a flop bet - I don't assume they automatically fold AK-gutshots though - and we're left with:
TT-77,ATs-A9s

I think a few of you are really over-estimating villain's range in terms of how wide it is.

I'm representing like AK+, QQ+ preflop, and if villain is competent he obviously has to have a hand that beats that range. If villain is a nit he's probably on a set/overpair at this point.

 

[F Paulsson]

I think a few of you are really over-estimating villain's range in terms of how wide it is.

Villain is unknown, especially to me. I don't really have a good idea of what a typical player's range is like when he opens and calls in that spot.

I'm representing like AK+, QQ+ preflop, and if villain is competent he obviously has to have a hand that beats that range. If villain is a nit he's probably on a set/overpair at this point.

You mean if/after he calls a flop bet, or? Surely his range isn't that narrow for just SEEING a flop?

 

[ChuckTs]

Villain is unknown, especially to me. I don't really have a good idea of what a typical player's range is like when he opens and calls in that spot.

Well I'd say an unknown deviates just a little bit on the loose side from your typical starting hands chart, so opening AJ+, ATs+, KQs, TT+ is probably fair as an opening range.

After reraising I'm representing a VERY tight range, and by that logic he has to have a very strong hand even to call - especially considering he's not really getting set odds (and so can't call with most pairs).

You mean if/after he calls a flop bet, or? Surely his range isn't that narrow for just SEEING a flop?

Nope, I meant preflop. I'm probably exaggerating a little bit, but a 'good' tag will have nothing less than ~JJ+ and AK vs my preflop raise.

Anyways it's a little hard pinning him on a very accurate range here since he's an unknown, and can vary anywhere from a nit who's slowplaying AA, or a loose player who will call with 67s.

 

[F Paulsson]

Right, well, my argument still stands, I think. I intentionally made his range wider than it "should" be in order to prove a point; that he will fold very little of his range when we bet.

 

[zachvac]

I don't know how different 100nl is from 50nl, but at 50nl I am c-betting this almost every single time. I've found when people raise, they seem to absolutely hate to fold to a 3-bet. I've taken down so many pots with this line with AK and AQ. Now if you have a read that this guy is tight that's one thing, but if this is an unknown I think you even have to include stuff like Ax and low pocket pairs. Maybe the players are much better at 100nl, but against an unknown I bet about $18 here.