[100nl FR]

[ChuckTs]

Another unknown.

poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

MP2: $21.20
CO: $100
BTN: $17
Hero (SB): $100
BB: $46.10
UTG: $46.60
UTG+1: $102.70
MP1: $91.75

Pre-Flop:

dealt to Hero (SB) [Ah][Kc]
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $4, 4 folds, Hero raises to $13.50, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $9.50

Flop: ($28) [Qc][Jc][5h]

(2 Players)
Hero ...

 

[tenbob]

Without even seeing the hand, I lead most flops. Feel like editing this Chuck ?

 

[ChuckTs]

You were too quick, I just did

 

[tenbob]

What are your hole cards so ? (or is that the point )

 

[ChuckTs]

woops...edited again

 

[F Paulsson]

What's the typical player at 100NL like?

Granted I'm no NL-expert, but the only part of my range that I'm likely to bet on this flop is 99-QQ and any AK except AcKc.

 

[skoldpadda]

I'm always raising big with 2 red x's.

Have to c-bet about 20 I think. Hope he folds. Fold to push. Vomit if called.

 

[F Paulsson]

Now that I finally see what hand you have, I recommend betting but to be mindful that it's essentially a bluff bet. You're hoping that he can resist the temptation of floating you with AT or 77. If he raises I fold, and if he calls I check any turn.

 

[switch0723]

ahh the wonders of the 3-bet

Based on the stuff you have said to me, surely we need to be leading out here for about 20. We can push all lower pp's off, then we slow down if called. But i have to think that a,q is the only danger hand so we bet this for about 20.

A bit ahead of schedule, but if the turn is a blank, is it worth double barreling to push out hands such as a,q k,q or a loose a,j? but with a re draw to the nuts if it all goes wrong

 

[dj11]

A slightly different way to look at this hand might be;

-You know you will be c-betting something like 20

-if only called, and even with a blank on the turn you figure to fire again, which might be 30 or 40

-if called and even with a blank on the river you might fire yet again which would be big,

So why not bet 40 on the flop, and take it down? Then, if called, shut yourself down to any card except an A,K, or T on the turn? This would fit into several betting schemes;

-you hit, and want to make a draw pay dearly

-you hit and want to drive out fools

-unfortunately it also fills the total bluff or semi-bluff scheme.

 

[Bentheman87]

So you have position on him and he checked on the flop? He called your 3 bet preflop so he must have something, he could definetly have QQ or JJ here I'd check behind him here. If he check raises you then you've got to fold and waste your draws. You probably have about 4 to 8 outs.

 

[ChuckTs]

Sorry about the screwed up HH guys. And the indescript title.

Some of you are getting a little off-track...we're thinking purely in terms of his hand range and how likely he is to call with certain hands. Think about where he raised from, what range I'm representing, and how strong of a hand he has to have to call. Now how does that range hit this flop?

 

[dj11]

You start with him being unknown to you, but are you unknown to him?

Did he just sit down? If so he may have been watching a while before sitting, or perhaps he sat down and than sat out an orbit or more, possibly getting a read on you.

Did you just sit down and have not seen him play any hand? This looks to be the case as you have an untouched $100.00 stack.

As presented you have 2 choices, lead or let him steal it? He called a substantial raise PF. Granted with no stated read on villain that could mean almost anything, but I would have to give it some credence.

PP top choice for what I put him on, with 2 paint or a weaker A (AQ, AJ, AT). Possibly sooted.

Depending on my humors at any particular moment, I have both lead out, or wimped out on hands like this. I would think taking a shot at this is a given. But, it is an easy hand to check/fold when I think I would rather sit and get some sort of read on this guy before I get into something big against him.

 

[SavagePenguin]

I'm alien $100 NL.
What I see is him making a standard raise from terrible position. That indicates strength. Some big pocket pair maybe?

While A/A and K/K are possibilities, he doesn't re-pop your pre-flop raise which leans me away from putting him on those hands. Besides, your own hand limits his chances of having those those pairs as well.
That makes me think that J/J and Q/Q are good possibilities. I guess A/K would be in the range as well.

You know, I don't think I'd c-bet this. If he had the A/A or K/K you're boned. And if he has the J/J or Q/Q... yipe!

I'd check/fold like a frightened little schoolgirl, then silently curse myself for being passive.

 

[tenbob]

DJ, betting 40 essentially commits us to call a shove, I hope you realise that.

I still think we have to bet, <10,10 folds the best hand, if we get called/raised then we can shut down and safely put the villian on a better hand. AQ calls, QQ raises so does JJ KK and AA because we have a vunerable board.

I bet $22 here almost all the time.

 

[feitr]

I think you probably have to c-bet, as it is your only chance of taking down the pot. But, i would think the only hands that he would bet from UTG + 1, then flat call your reraise AND miss the flop are AK and TT. You could probably represent AA/KK, and get him to fold TT/AJ/AK, but im not really sure that he would call a reraise with AJ/AQ from EP. So i would put my money on him having completely missed with AK/TT, in which case he folds to your cbet, or hit hard with JJ/QQ, in which case your f'd, but at least you'll know your f'ed when he calls/raises. It's probably a coin flip on him folding to your cbet or having you easily beat (he probably has AK/TT/JJ/QQ), so it is probably a good idea to bet like 18-20$ into the 28.5$ pot.

If he has TT/AJ/AQ, and you check this, he'll probably lead out on the turn if it doesn't come A/K and you'll have to fold. The problem is that he would probably check the flop from out of position no matter what cards had come.

But I'm not familiar with NL100. Not sure if somebody would call a 3-bet with AQ/AJ. Not sure what the frequency of light 3-betting is in NL100.

So why not bet 40 on the flop, and take it down? Then, if called, shut yourself down to any card except an A,K, or T on the turn? This would fit into several betting schemes;

overbetting would be a terrible decision imo. He will either fold to a standard c-bet if he completely missed with something like AK/TT or he is going to most likely have a set, in which case it would be better to throw your money off a bridge...i can only really see overbetting being good vs AQ and nothing else, and i really don't think he would call a 3-bet with AQ from out of position.

 

[F Paulsson]

I thought this discussion was a lot more interesting when we didn't know Chuck's cards!

 

[F Paulsson]

DJ, betting 40 essentially commits us to call a shove, I hope you realise that.

I still think we have to bet, <10,10 folds the best hand, if we get called/raised then we can shut down and safely put the villian on a better hand. AQ calls, QQ raises so does JJ KK and AA because we have a vunerable board.

I bet $22 here almost all the time.

And when called and the turn is

1) 3c
2) Jd
3) Kh
4) 6s

... you?

This flop hit his range like a brick wall, unfortunately. We should still bet but really just for the hopes of folding 88-TT because everything else is at least calling, barring some of the more, shall we say, "interesting" hands he might have opened with for the hell of it.

Or? Do we give up any turn that isn't a T? Can we lay down TPTK if we hit a K or A on the turn? By the way, we ARE checking top pair on the turn aren't we?

 

[dj11]

My thought was probably unclear. WHat I seem to remember trying to convey was that if we think the hand through, and do the c-bet, it will likely cost us more on the turn, as a 2nd bullet would be more expensive. My alternative was given that notion, we fire what essentially could be a combined flop and turn cbet, and if called, close down. Yes it is a more expensive bullet to fire at the flop, but I feel (not figured to the penny) that more times than not we will be taking this down at that point, and not have to worry about it anymore.

But that was just the betting aspect of my reply. The more important aspect was how is it he is a total unknown? Are you the guy who finds a seat, sits and plays from the very first opportunity? If seats are hard to come by and you are forced to accept the first seat off the waiting list, do you play the first hand? My cash game is nothing special at all , but at least I know to sit at least an orbit before joining in. Up to 2 orbits on occasion.

Games go fast enough that I don't feel a need to jump right in, straight from the taxi.

 

[ChuckTs]

if we think the hand through, and do the c-bet, it will likely cost us more on the turn, as a 2nd bullet would be more expensive. My alternative was given that notion, we fire what essentially could be a combined flop and turn cbet, and if called, close down. Yes it is a more expensive bullet to fire at the flop, but I feel (not figured to the penny) that more times than not we will be taking this down at that point, and not have to worry about it anymore.

I have no idea what your logic is here to be honest, dj.

Look at it first in terms of the flop bet and take it from there - betting 1/2-3/4 the pot is often the perfect size for a c-bet. Betting more simply costs us more when we are up against a hand, and has the same effect (fold) as a normal 1/2-3/4 pot sized bet when our opponent doesn't have one. Betting smaller simply doesn't give us any fold equity, and we'll often get bluff-raised especially on this type of board.

Anyways the question I'm asking is if that bet is profitable or not. If we bet half the pot here for example, we need that bet to work at least 2/3 of the time for the bet to be profitable. My question is whether or not it will work that 1/3 of the time after considering what villain calls with.

Regarding double-barreling the turn, it's just something we can't do - in that case our opponent has called both a 3-bet and a strong flop bet on a very scary board against us. That has to represent at least top pair, although I'd be very afraid of a set at that point, and there's no way we can lead again into that range. Betting the turn unimproved after betting the flop is simply out of the question.

But that was just the betting aspect of my reply. The more important aspect was how is it he is a total unknown? Are you the guy who finds a seat, sits and plays from the very first opportunity? If seats are hard to come by and you are forced to accept the first seat off the waiting list, do you play the first hand? My cash game is nothing special at all , but at least I know to sit at least an orbit before joining in. Up to 2 orbits on occasion.

Games go fast enough that I don't feel a need to jump right in, straight from the taxi.

Well I'm not going to sit and watch all 8 of my tables for a whole orbit. Playing readless for the first orbit or so is much more worth my time than sitting there trying to get reads (and remember them - 8*9 = 72 players!) for 9 or 10 hands.

 

[GunslingerZ]

If we bet half the pot here for example, we need that bet to work at least 2/3 of the time for the bet to be profitable.

IIRC, betting half the pot needs to work 1/3 of the time to be profitable.

 

[ChuckTs]

Woops, typo. Edited, thanks.

 

[feitr]

Ya it absolutely does not have to work 2/3 of the time. Say you bet 20$ into a 30$ pot. You are getting 2:5 on your money, so the bet only has to work 40% of the time. If you bet 15$ into a 30$ pot, it only has to work 1/3 of the time, because you are getting 1:3 on your money.

And that is why i think you should c-bet. As i said before, i think he is only really likely to have 4 or 5 sort of hands (99-QQ or AK). The odds that he does not have JJ/QQ (the only hands he will call your c-bet out of those) is probably no greater than 50%. In fact, firing a little over 1/2 the pot is probaby the best option in this case. Any hand that will fold to a c-bet, isn't likely to call under any circumstances (99-TT, AK) and any other hand will call/reraise...so you should minimize your losses.

@ dj11

Except that if he calls the c-bet, you are done. You cannot fire a 2nd barrel at that flop under any circumstances unless you hit your straight or maybe TPTK (but that is probably still beat). So, any hand you are going to chase off for 40$, you will chase off for far less, and any other hand has you dominated and you are just throwing money away. The ONLY hands that a high cbet will be useful against are AQ and AJ, and i personally don't see those hands calling a 3 bet, since they could so easily be outkicked and dominated (but i could be wrong on this account coz i don't play NL100).

Obviously the key in this situation is to figure out how little can you bet, but still get him to lay down the hands that have you beat (or tied), but not dominated.

 

[ChuckTs]

Any hand that will fold to a c-bet, isn't likely to call under any circumstances (99-TT, AK) and any other hand will call/reraise...

lol I realize you probably typed this fast but...you're basically saying "any hand that will fold to a c-bet can't call, and the rest of the hands will call/raise you".

It all comes down to what type of range we can pin him on preflop, what portion of those hands will call a c-bet and of course if the c-bet is profitable after factoring those ranges in.

Nice discussion, guys. This has sparked a reminder for something else I've thought about recently and I'll post it later tonight or tomorrow.

 

[F Paulsson]

It all comes down to what type of range we can pin him on preflop, what portion of those hands will call a c-bet and of course if the c-bet is profitable after factoring those ranges in.

Against a nit, let's say Tenbob (really, I haven't played him for like a year, I have no idea), the bet isn't profitable. If he opens 10% UTG+1 - which isn't even that nitty - AND presuming that he will fold a lower pair like 88-TT on the flop and never float with them, then we're screwed, as 88-TT is... what... 20% of his possible holdings?

Okay, now I need PokerStove.

10.3% opening range:
77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo

Taking away hands that reasonably call a flop bet - I don't assume they automatically fold AK-gutshots though - and we're left with:
TT-77,ATs-A9s


... which constitutes 2.4% of total hands, or 23% of his starting hands. So at best he'll only fold the flop one time in four making our bet unprofitable.