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Marginal
Junior Member
Silver Level
Yes John its all rather simple.
Yes John its all rather simple.
John A
Poker Zion Coach
Silver Level
It is simple. You're asking us if you should trust your read. If your read is correct, the answer is simple, YES, you should be re-bluffing. Correct (because there's way more combos of Kd,Qd and bluffs than there is of Ad, and JTdd)? Or am I missing something? If so, then please explain.
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MinhANguyen
Visionary
Silver Level
Like Matthew said, I think our opponent would probably flat the river with anything lower than an Ad, like Kd/Qd/Jd. It doesn't really make sense for him to turn his bluff-catchers into bluffs or thinly value raise them against a totally polarized overbet where in our range we either have the nuts (straight flush or nut flush) or complete air.
But I do agree with John that this hand is probably mostly read-based. He can credibly rep an Ad and J10dd. Also, the fact that it's a 3-bet pot, he's more likely to play honestly than in a single raised pot just because the pot is so big. I find that people get a little more timid and are less willing to barrel off multiple buy-ins when the pot get very large and when stacks are deep. I also find that people don't play back at overbets much really, but I do have no live experience. Just in my experience online. You've also given us no reads that he has spewy tendencies, so I might lean towards a fold. You've only told us that you've been spewy, and he's picked off some bluffs of yours.
Also, knowing whether he is capable of folding the Ad some % of the time here helps. If he doesn't, I'd fold here much more often than 3-bet bluff. But honestly, I don't think live players would be disciplined enough to fold the Ad here, especially when they realistically only lose to one combo of JTdd. And because "it's the nut flush!" He'd probably discount to a decent extent 65dd from your range since you opened from MP and called a 3-bet OOP.
And when you do re-bluff, he's going to get decent pot odds to call. So he has to be bluffing here at least 1/2 of the times just for your bluff to be breakeven, assuming he never folds the Ad (which is realistic to assume, especially given the history between the two of you).
And yeah, what's with the fold pre here ITT? We are 350bb deep and have much more room to maneuver postflop. It's also a live game.
But I do agree with John that this hand is probably mostly read-based. He can credibly rep an Ad and J10dd. Also, the fact that it's a 3-bet pot, he's more likely to play honestly than in a single raised pot just because the pot is so big. I find that people get a little more timid and are less willing to barrel off multiple buy-ins when the pot get very large and when stacks are deep. I also find that people don't play back at overbets much really, but I do have no live experience. Just in my experience online. You've also given us no reads that he has spewy tendencies, so I might lean towards a fold. You've only told us that you've been spewy, and he's picked off some bluffs of yours.
Also, knowing whether he is capable of folding the Ad some % of the time here helps. If he doesn't, I'd fold here much more often than 3-bet bluff. But honestly, I don't think live players would be disciplined enough to fold the Ad here, especially when they realistically only lose to one combo of JTdd. And because "it's the nut flush!" He'd probably discount to a decent extent 65dd from your range since you opened from MP and called a 3-bet OOP.
And when you do re-bluff, he's going to get decent pot odds to call. So he has to be bluffing here at least 1/2 of the times just for your bluff to be breakeven, assuming he never folds the Ad (which is realistic to assume, especially given the history between the two of you).
And yeah, what's with the fold pre here ITT? We are 350bb deep and have much more room to maneuver postflop. It's also a live game.
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Marginal
Junior Member
Silver Level
Its not that your incorrect I just think its your overall arrogance is just insufferable hence I cant take your post serious in any way.
Now that this thread has run its course, its worth noting I didn't post this cause I was confused of what to do I think its a pretty clear idea, I just figured it would be fun to share a funky spot and see what people came up with. I was kinda disappointed along the way with some of the thought process mentioned in the thread but I wasn't sure what to expect.
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Marginal
Junior Member
Silver Level
I never said I was spew. Also the % of times they fold Ad has been discussed through the rest of the thread and noted as the most important aspect in whether to bluff or not.
65d is definitely part of my range though. Or rather, he will perceive it to be part of my range. TBH the pots aren't not even going to be factored in here. He is not the type that is going to do the math to see how often he needs to be correct to work out if its worth it.
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MinhANguyen
Visionary
Silver Level
Okay, maybe spewy wasn't the right word. Maybe overbluffing some spots. I don't think he ever folds Ad, especially since you've been "running him over" a bit and bluffing in a few extra spots that he picked off.
I just don't think he's bluffing here often enough to make a re-bluff anymore than marginally profit, given your description of him.
I just don't think he's bluffing here often enough to make a re-bluff anymore than marginally profit, given your description of him.
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Marginal
Junior Member
Silver Level
you realise picking off in some spots is a precursor to him actually bluff raising. That's what it means more than anything else. What is also means is that because of his recent pick off success he is going to try something weird at some point.
John A
Poker Zion Coach
Silver Level
Yes of course. The timing is there. At one point I actually created a calculation for this where you could actually start predicting when someone would make a move in spots like this. I called it tension count (TC).
But my point is still the same. There's nothing anyone here can really tell you. I completely get what you're asking. I'm sure I've posted hands like this before in the past. But again, if your read is correct, the math is simple. You should re-bluff. It's hard for any of us to tell you if your read is correct. Looking at this hand w/o your read, I'd say fold to the re-raise simply because the sizing is small, and checking the turn and then raising the river in that spot is typically strong, and few players try and level someone in that spot.
John A
Poker Zion Coach
Silver Level
Wow. How was my post arrogant? I was pointing out that the solution is simple if you're trusting your read. Meaning it's a simple math problem that we know the answer to. Don't build on something that Mingh is now suddenly saying and feel justified about responding like that.
wtf.
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MinhANguyen
Visionary
Silver Level
Yeah, wtf is the right word. You're blaming me for Marginal's belief that your "overall arrogance" is insufferable. Even before we had that discussion in the other thread, from reading many older threads and current threads that I read at the time, I already thought you were type to be arrogant. And at that time, I honestly looked up to you to as a player and a coach. Whether you believe me or not, I don't care.
John A
Poker Zion Coach
Silver Level
Trust me. I believe that you believe that based on how you interpret things. But whether you think I'm arrogant or not, maybe you should have just stuck with arguing your point and stick the analyzing poker and not making it personal. I asked you to do such several times over w/ no success. I could have gone on and said a lot of things about you as well, but I didn't. I stuck to the analysis.
Let's not hijack Marginal's thread. Apparently I have insufferable arrogance. Which if you were trying to get better at poker who the hell cares if that's true or not. Just stick to analyzing the situation.
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Trabendo_daze
Rock Star
Silver Level
I feel like we need to just all get together in a nice big circle around a campfire and tell each other our feelings.
What Cardschat needs now, is love sweet love. It's the only thing that there's just too little of.
What Cardschat needs now, is love sweet love. It's the only thing that there's just too little of.
John A
Poker Zion Coach
Silver Level
So much time wasted w/ insults. Let's be above that. There's just zero point in any of it. Honestly.
I state the solution set is simple in this hand, not that the hand or the situation itself is simple, and I'm insufferably arrogant. Ok. Totally warranted.
If you don't like someone's feedback or opinion in a situation, just ignore it. No one is forcing you to read it or respond to it. Let's be adults.
vinylspiros
PIRANHA-------->< (((º>
Silver Level
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Marginal
Junior Member
Silver Level
My sentiments.
John, I Know you know what you are talking about, and I know you can probably beat the game. I have no beef with you personally nor do I know what you are talking about with minh ( I don't even know who that is) but understand that there is just an uppityness to your posts.
This goes way back btw, HU4rolls stuff with other regs etc.
duggs
Killing me softly
Silver Level
went through all the other posts and highlighted parts then decided whats the point
John A
Poker Zion Coach
Silver Level
Then let's keep it to respectful poker analysis. I could sit here and psychoanalyze everyone on this forum, but that's not why I'm here. Of course there's ego's involved and when someone gets told they are wrong, and they can't let go of their position, people can get pissy. I think for the most part, at least the longer term regs on cardschat have avoided that. That's part of the reason I enjoy posting here personally.
You totally and completely misunderstood what I said in my post. I assume you meant I was saying, oh, this is just easy, wtf are you posting about. But that's not what I was saying in the least bit. It's a very complicated meta game hand that only you would know whether you read was correct. And if your read was correct, then the solution set is simple.
Hu4rollz with other regs? If you're talking about one time 4 years ago when I first joined CC's with whoever that asshole was on here, ok. I don't even remember, other than he was quite an azz. That's the only time in 12 years of posting on poker forums has something like that ever come up. Good memory though.
I respect you as a player, and a person and have zero beef with you. That's why I was really surprised by your comment. I'm a confident player, and that comes when you've played millions of hands and won tons of money at this game. I'm direct sometimes, but I wouldn't confuse that confidence and directness for arrogance, because I'm not. If you're reading it otherwise, so be it. I obviously can't control that. If anything, age has added a lot of humility to me on many levels.
I have no, and I mean NO time to waste on BS like this. I have my flaws like anyone else on this forum, but overall I try and be respectful, helpful, and elevate the level of discussion here on cardschat. If you don't think that for some reason, and I'm not saying you do personally, there's a very easy solution for that.
or3o1990
Legend
Silver Level
I would consider rebluffing but barely given the dynamic you've presented. If he's used to you running him over I think that making large bluffs is going to make it easier for him to adjust.
I think that I just check behind on the river. We have good showdown value, he's going to bluff catch often since we're bluffing often and not very many worse hands will pay us off imo. Add that the the idea that you expect him to play back at you a bunch I'd be looking to avoid this c/r spot.
But as played if there is a way to get him off of some flushes then reraising here seems the most likely way to shake him.
I think that I just check behind on the river. We have good showdown value, he's going to bluff catch often since we're bluffing often and not very many worse hands will pay us off imo. Add that the the idea that you expect him to play back at you a bunch I'd be looking to avoid this c/r spot.
But as played if there is a way to get him off of some flushes then reraising here seems the most likely way to shake him.
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nkat
Rock Star
Silver Level
obviouly min 4b pf
Interesting hand..
I'm leaning towards fold cuz you look pretty strong here. I doubt he puts you on 66d,Jd,AxTd,Qd,Kd too much given your sizing, and given his turn check even if he did suspect those hands it would be unlikely for him to go for a bluff. From that I'd say his bluff freq is pretty low here
" My thought process is that JTdd will check the turn but would find a larger raise size on the river since my bet has more Ad in it, while an Ad will try to eek out a little more value from a lesser diamond."
Perhaps, however mini value raises on this kind of texture are not uncommon
"1) how often is he bluffing and how often is be turning Qd Jd into a bluff
2) does he ever raise Kd for value on river
3) does he ever fold Ad on river"
1. not often as discussed. QJdd into bluff? basically never
2. never
3. sometimes.. this is the key to this hand imo, how often he has Ad here. More often he has it the better a shove is. I think if he has Ad here 100% it's a marginal shove
7.3k to win 10.7k he has to be folding 40% of the time here. That's a little high in this spot i think...
His range: bluff,Ad,SF
Ad... his most likely hand since there are only 3 SF combos. Frequency depends on how often he checks back turn
SF.. frequency is relative to how often he has Ad here and given play i feel it makes up enough of his range to fold
Close spot, nh
Interesting hand..
I'm leaning towards fold cuz you look pretty strong here. I doubt he puts you on 66d,Jd,AxTd,Qd,Kd too much given your sizing, and given his turn check even if he did suspect those hands it would be unlikely for him to go for a bluff. From that I'd say his bluff freq is pretty low here
" My thought process is that JTdd will check the turn but would find a larger raise size on the river since my bet has more Ad in it, while an Ad will try to eek out a little more value from a lesser diamond."
Perhaps, however mini value raises on this kind of texture are not uncommon
"1) how often is he bluffing and how often is be turning Qd Jd into a bluff
2) does he ever raise Kd for value on river
3) does he ever fold Ad on river"
1. not often as discussed. QJdd into bluff? basically never
2. never
3. sometimes.. this is the key to this hand imo, how often he has Ad here. More often he has it the better a shove is. I think if he has Ad here 100% it's a marginal shove
7.3k to win 10.7k he has to be folding 40% of the time here. That's a little high in this spot i think...
His range: bluff,Ad,SF
Ad... his most likely hand since there are only 3 SF combos. Frequency depends on how often he checks back turn
SF.. frequency is relative to how often he has Ad here and given play i feel it makes up enough of his range to fold
Close spot, nh