duggs
Killing me softly
Silver Level
Fig messaged me to check for flatting 3bets in deep games, flatting 77 and below with effective stacks of over 200bb and raise/calling pre. I lose 20bb/100 so its an obvious call (ignoring the fact i don't have margs edge post flop, and 77 is the best hand i included in the filter). If i filter for OOP i win at 150bb/100 in a paltry sample size of 450 instances.
I think its a cool spot to 3bet, he is going to have a lot of bluffs and Ad, but we have more straight flushes and we can do this with ATdd/AJdd which he never has. we never do this with a Jd/Td so we have no good blocker hands so hand selection doesn't really matter.
I think its a cool spot to 3bet, he is going to have a lot of bluffs and Ad, but we have more straight flushes and we can do this with ATdd/AJdd which he never has. we never do this with a Jd/Td so we have no good blocker hands so hand selection doesn't really matter.
dj11
Legend
Silver Level
Not saying either of those things. I did say I think he believes you don't have a diamond, and he has one.
By your own story, he has changed his game against you, and might well be bluffing, but I would think the value bet semibluff of him having maybe JT with 1 diamond presents a mighty juicy situation for him.
Not being there and limited by how we can use the language to express poker instincts I might put it at something like 20% bluff in this situation with 20% top pair or overpair, and 70% he has a diamond. So you have a 70% chance of losing.
I'd be folding in your spot. But then in my old age, my juevos are shrinking.....
duggs
Killing me softly
Silver Level
Not saying either of those things. I did say I think he believes you don't have a diamond, and he has one.
By your own story, he has changed his game against you, and might well be bluffing, but I would think the value bet semibluff of him having maybe JT with 1 diamond presents a mighty juicy situation for him.
Not being there and limited by how we can use the language to express poker instincts I might put it at something like 20% bluff in this situation with 20% top pair or overpair, and 70% he has a diamond. So you have a 70% chance of losing.
I'd be folding in your spot. But then in my old age, my juevos are shrinking.....
if you honestly think he is ever clicking back a single Jd/Td here i dunno what to tell you. raise calling any non Ad non straight flush is suicide
dj11
Legend
Silver Level
They apparently have a lot of hands on each other, and villain here, according to marge, is playing back in new ways.
All my figuring here is based on villain believing marge has no diamond, and him having any diamond that beats the board.
I don't think a rebluff is wise. But really, this hand goes beyond stats and into the real realm of poker!
Marge does that a lot better than me.....
duggs
Killing me softly
Silver Level
yes and real poker involves polarised river raising ranges against good players.
c9h13no3
Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
If you're going to tell us his range, why are you asking the question?
77 plays like trash OOP, and you're not truly getting 30:1 implied odds pre, because he's not putting in 300 bb's without better than middle set.
duggs
Killing me softly
Silver Level
duggs
Killing me softly
Silver Level
so you think flatting is terrible but we can just raise 100% of flops turns and rivers?
M
Marginal
Junior Member
Silver Level
Dude, I said its potential he folds Ad sometimes to a 3 bet that's not telling you his range, that's me saying its something to consider. Can you for once not be a condescending *****? Like why do you even post anymore.
Secondly, I don't need to stack him to make this profitable.
M
Marginal
Junior Member
Silver Level
I posted this on Skype, too lazy to translate but its going to be the best bit of advise your going to hear today. Don't be a machine
[21:34:26] Jeremy: people need to get away from this is a leak
[21:34:29] Jeremy: that is a leak
[21:34:40] Jeremy: there is no standard way to do anything in poker
[21:34:47] Jeremy: that mentality is going to get you stuck in the micros
[21:34:55] Jeremy: because it makes you a mechanical player
[21:35:03] Jeremy: and not someone who thinks about situations
[21:35:09] Jeremy: like to some people
[21:35:11] Jeremy: yes i am folding
[21:35:17] Jeremy: for 1 reason or the other
[21:35:23] Jeremy: although its super rare and would be shallower stacks
[21:35:31] Jeremy: but you cant treat every situation the same.
[21:37:12] Jeremy: your never going to move up with that mentality
[21:37:16] Jeremy: you have to do things
[21:37:27] Jeremy: you have to make plays that are unconventional
[21:37:31] Jeremy: this is how the game works
[21:38:26] Jeremy: the person who thinks about the game, will put people in unique situations they havent experienced before, if you are saying lets just fold everytime caus everybody's DB shows them losing
[21:38:30] Jeremy: that doesnt mean anything really
[21:34:26] Jeremy: people need to get away from this is a leak
[21:34:29] Jeremy: that is a leak
[21:34:40] Jeremy: there is no standard way to do anything in poker
[21:34:47] Jeremy: that mentality is going to get you stuck in the micros
[21:34:55] Jeremy: because it makes you a mechanical player
[21:35:03] Jeremy: and not someone who thinks about situations
[21:35:09] Jeremy: like to some people
[21:35:11] Jeremy: yes i am folding
[21:35:17] Jeremy: for 1 reason or the other
[21:35:23] Jeremy: although its super rare and would be shallower stacks
[21:35:31] Jeremy: but you cant treat every situation the same.
[21:37:12] Jeremy: your never going to move up with that mentality
[21:37:16] Jeremy: you have to do things
[21:37:27] Jeremy: you have to make plays that are unconventional
[21:37:31] Jeremy: this is how the game works
[21:38:26] Jeremy: the person who thinks about the game, will put people in unique situations they havent experienced before, if you are saying lets just fold everytime caus everybody's DB shows them losing
[21:38:30] Jeremy: that doesnt mean anything really
T
trent32la
Legend
Bronze Level
6
6bet me
Visionary
Silver Level
I'll start with a disclaimer here that I've never played above $2/$4 live and this is way out of my level, so take everything I say with a grain of salt.
Anyway, my analysis would be:
Preflop: it's fine calling here, since you have a 350bb effective stack against the villain, the 3bet was only a raise to 9bb and there could be plenty of marginal hands in his 3betting range (given that this is CO vs MP), such as JTs or 22.
Flop: I am fine with check-calling here too, since the villain is going to Cbet the flop and then give up a lot on these kind of boards with hands that completely missed, although I wouldn't actually fault you for folding here, given that it's very hard for you to continue with this hand the times when the villain barrels (and the villain could easily be barreling a semi-bluff on this board texture).
Turn: Checking is the only thing that makes sense here. You are typically going to be checking this turn with 100% of your range and I don't think there's any real reason to deviate from that plan.
River: I like the overbet because it makes it unprofitable for the villain to call here without a diamond, and it's also very credible for you to have the Ad or a straight flush, given the line that you took. Once you get raised, I think it's fair to discount everything from the villain's range except Ad, a straight flush and a complete bluff. I think it's safe to assume that the villain will flat-call you with any diamond below Ad, which makes his raising range very polarised.
But here it gets interesting: you know you can't flat-call, but you're contemplating going for the 3bet to get the villain to fold all his bluffs, as well as potentially folding Ad. I personally think that it's a bit optimistic to expect the villain to fold Ad, and let's look at it from the villain's perspective: you shove 8.5k, meaning he's calling 6k more to win a pot of 18k, giving him 2:1 odds on a call. He only needs to be right 33% of the time to make this call, and I think that he'll think that there's about a 50/50 chance that you're bluffing here. It's admittedly very hard for you to be bluffing in this spot, but then it's also very hard for you to have a straight flush here, given that there are only 2 combos of SF's, with 56dd being difficult for you to have, and you chose to check-call the flop, rather than check-raise the flop, which reduces the possibility you have JTdd. I think that if you check-raised the flop, the SF would be a bit more credible (I'm not saying you can't have JTdd when you check-call the flop, just that I think that it's less likely you'd check-call it rather than check-raise it), but as played, I think that the villain is going to be calling any raise with the Ad.
So by 3betting here, I believe that you're only folding out his bluffs and you're getting called by any Ad or SF combo. The question now is: how much would you 3bet to? Shove or small raise? Given that he raised to 2.5k and your maximum river raise sizing is effectively 8.5k here, there's not too many options about raise sizing. And what does it look like when you raise here anyway? Let's say you have Ad. Are you really raising the river with Ad? What worse hands do you expect are going to call your raise with Ad? We already concluded that the villain never has a diamond below Ad here, so you'd be far better off flat-calling with Ad. That means that when you raise, you're only representing either a SF or a bluff. But when you raise small (like 4k for example), is that really representative of a SF? Wouldn't a SF want to shove the river in the hopes of getting called by Ad? So the only options seem to be either shove or fold, with shove representing either a SF or a bluff whilst getting called by Ad and SF and folding out bluffs.
So the question is then about pot odds: when you shove 8.5k (7.2k more) to win the 5k in the pot, you need the villain to fold at least 60% of the time to make it profitable. Do you expect that the villain is going to show bluffs here at least 60% of the time whilst showing Ad and SF combos less than 40% of the time? It's close, given the history you have with him and his willingness to play back at you, but honestly, I think that the probability that he's bluffing here is below 60% and thus it's better for you to just fold the river.
Anyway, my analysis would be:
Preflop: it's fine calling here, since you have a 350bb effective stack against the villain, the 3bet was only a raise to 9bb and there could be plenty of marginal hands in his 3betting range (given that this is CO vs MP), such as JTs or 22.
Flop: I am fine with check-calling here too, since the villain is going to Cbet the flop and then give up a lot on these kind of boards with hands that completely missed, although I wouldn't actually fault you for folding here, given that it's very hard for you to continue with this hand the times when the villain barrels (and the villain could easily be barreling a semi-bluff on this board texture).
Turn: Checking is the only thing that makes sense here. You are typically going to be checking this turn with 100% of your range and I don't think there's any real reason to deviate from that plan.
River: I like the overbet because it makes it unprofitable for the villain to call here without a diamond, and it's also very credible for you to have the Ad or a straight flush, given the line that you took. Once you get raised, I think it's fair to discount everything from the villain's range except Ad, a straight flush and a complete bluff. I think it's safe to assume that the villain will flat-call you with any diamond below Ad, which makes his raising range very polarised.
But here it gets interesting: you know you can't flat-call, but you're contemplating going for the 3bet to get the villain to fold all his bluffs, as well as potentially folding Ad. I personally think that it's a bit optimistic to expect the villain to fold Ad, and let's look at it from the villain's perspective: you shove 8.5k, meaning he's calling 6k more to win a pot of 18k, giving him 2:1 odds on a call. He only needs to be right 33% of the time to make this call, and I think that he'll think that there's about a 50/50 chance that you're bluffing here. It's admittedly very hard for you to be bluffing in this spot, but then it's also very hard for you to have a straight flush here, given that there are only 2 combos of SF's, with 56dd being difficult for you to have, and you chose to check-call the flop, rather than check-raise the flop, which reduces the possibility you have JTdd. I think that if you check-raised the flop, the SF would be a bit more credible (I'm not saying you can't have JTdd when you check-call the flop, just that I think that it's less likely you'd check-call it rather than check-raise it), but as played, I think that the villain is going to be calling any raise with the Ad.
So by 3betting here, I believe that you're only folding out his bluffs and you're getting called by any Ad or SF combo. The question now is: how much would you 3bet to? Shove or small raise? Given that he raised to 2.5k and your maximum river raise sizing is effectively 8.5k here, there's not too many options about raise sizing. And what does it look like when you raise here anyway? Let's say you have Ad. Are you really raising the river with Ad? What worse hands do you expect are going to call your raise with Ad? We already concluded that the villain never has a diamond below Ad here, so you'd be far better off flat-calling with Ad. That means that when you raise, you're only representing either a SF or a bluff. But when you raise small (like 4k for example), is that really representative of a SF? Wouldn't a SF want to shove the river in the hopes of getting called by Ad? So the only options seem to be either shove or fold, with shove representing either a SF or a bluff whilst getting called by Ad and SF and folding out bluffs.
So the question is then about pot odds: when you shove 8.5k (7.2k more) to win the 5k in the pot, you need the villain to fold at least 60% of the time to make it profitable. Do you expect that the villain is going to show bluffs here at least 60% of the time whilst showing Ad and SF combos less than 40% of the time? It's close, given the history you have with him and his willingness to play back at you, but honestly, I think that the probability that he's bluffing here is below 60% and thus it's better for you to just fold the river.
J
jsh169
Visionary
Silver Level
The way you describe yourself and how you perceive your villain to perceive you, I feel like I would be a p.o.w. in these spots against you with a good diamond. Obviously not rolled to play as high, but maybe to a fault at times, I'm not just going to let someone handle me like a rag doll, in a spot like this I honestly would think you would have more bluffs than value. I sware four and five flush boards are some of the most heavy oriented bluff spots.
M
Marginal
Junior Member
Silver Level
So that's the type of post I wanted to see in the thread. Fantastic response mathew
I fully agree with everything you said. I would also note I'm potentially raising Ad sometimes and that I probably don't check raise all JTD on flop
Also my river bet sizing was going to be small in the range of 5,400 since I need it too look like I want a call from Ad while betting enough that it's not a snap. Plus it wouldn't have to work as often and achieves the same result of getting all bluffs out
To me there are 3 main factors to consider
1) how often is he bluffing and how often is be turning Qd Jd into a bluff
2) does he ever raise Kd for value on river
3) does he ever fold Ad on river
With all that considered I really wanted to raise but ended up folding due to timing considerations but that's the type of post I actually wanted to see in this thread. Not a bunch of drivel on folding preflop. I do think he folds Ad sometimes though, he has played back but seems slightly uncomfortable while doing it so I still like the idea of taking him to the streets and going insane
I fully agree with everything you said. I would also note I'm potentially raising Ad sometimes and that I probably don't check raise all JTD on flop
Also my river bet sizing was going to be small in the range of 5,400 since I need it too look like I want a call from Ad while betting enough that it's not a snap. Plus it wouldn't have to work as often and achieves the same result of getting all bluffs out
To me there are 3 main factors to consider
1) how often is he bluffing and how often is be turning Qd Jd into a bluff
2) does he ever raise Kd for value on river
3) does he ever fold Ad on river
With all that considered I really wanted to raise but ended up folding due to timing considerations but that's the type of post I actually wanted to see in this thread. Not a bunch of drivel on folding preflop. I do think he folds Ad sometimes though, he has played back but seems slightly uncomfortable while doing it so I still like the idea of taking him to the streets and going insane
TimovieMan
Legend
Silver Level
Can you tell?
As that could skew this decision in favour of a raise again.
Ducky7
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Not read anything anyone has put properly yet, but seems like there is Drama here. I saw one saying fold pre. If you think you should fold pre here please do these 2 things
1) never play poker again
2) donate all money you have to charity because you should not be in possession of money
So on the hand itself, I have um'd and ar'd now for a day or so about raising vs folding and still havent really come to a decision.
Based on the fact you have the rep vs this guy that you have run him over in the past and have noticed some play back its not impossible he would trap like AKs and AQs like this to induce spaziness from you. So when he makes the decision to trap he probably feels inclined to raise here because he has the nut flush (not the nuts). Now here is where the fun starts, because he's almost inclined to raise and will feel like a bitch with a just call line here you could really potentially make him consider folding Axs here just because you cant have anything worse if you 3b this river. Whether he is good enough to fold the Ace is the only question I would have for myself here. Also are you a sicko enough to 3b this river with a complete airball. I mean as villain I would as I say be inclined to 3b the Axs just because its time for revenge on all the bullshit you have done to us.
However once I did raise and get 3b I would consider hanging myself with the Axs here because its so gross
(disclaimer in a rush so didnt read through my text will do when i get back and will read other peoples stuff )
1) never play poker again
2) donate all money you have to charity because you should not be in possession of money
So on the hand itself, I have um'd and ar'd now for a day or so about raising vs folding and still havent really come to a decision.
Based on the fact you have the rep vs this guy that you have run him over in the past and have noticed some play back its not impossible he would trap like AKs and AQs like this to induce spaziness from you. So when he makes the decision to trap he probably feels inclined to raise here because he has the nut flush (not the nuts). Now here is where the fun starts, because he's almost inclined to raise and will feel like a bitch with a just call line here you could really potentially make him consider folding Axs here just because you cant have anything worse if you 3b this river. Whether he is good enough to fold the Ace is the only question I would have for myself here. Also are you a sicko enough to 3b this river with a complete airball. I mean as villain I would as I say be inclined to 3b the Axs just because its time for revenge on all the bullshit you have done to us.
However once I did raise and get 3b I would consider hanging myself with the Axs here because its so gross
(disclaimer in a rush so didnt read through my text will do when i get back and will read other peoples stuff
)
John A
Poker Zion Coach
Silver Level
It's too read/meta dependent to give a really good answer. If you say he doesn't typically Raise Kd and under, then you raise because he has way more combos of those hands than Ad JTdd. It's really that simple. You have to make sure you are confident in your read. That's what this whole hand comes down to. If you're confident, then the answer is simple.
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