$10 NLHE 6-max: AQs deepstacked(for real this time), UTG raise

[KardKlub]

Like I said it's for outside of the box thinkers.

But I don't disagree with your play

 

[Stu_Ungar]

What I'm saying is that when the turn goes check check, the river bet is almost always for value. Check your poker tracker and see.

Yes and we have a value hand, we are ahead of villains calling range (see my earlier post)

Checking the river gets us another bet when villains decides to bluff or value ax or jj etc.

This is the bit that makes almost no sense.

Lets give villian 99 (99 is the same as QQ here but I think it might help highlight whats going on)

Why would villian bluff in this spot? Like you just said the river is almost always for value. If villian BLUFFS then he bets to fold out better hands, what better hands fold? A weak ace? KK QQ JJ TT (maybe TT) this isnt a spot villian can ever bluff. If he bets and you fold then he could have checked through and still win at SD because you simply dont have a hand and were bluffing the flop.

So if he cant bluff can he bet for value? A value bet isnt a "I have the best hand bet" 99 could be the best hand. A value bet is a "I have the best hand and you have enough worse hands that you can call me with bet". Put simply why would he bet 99-QQ for value.. whats he hoping you call him with?

So when you check, villian should check back all his PP and bet only with AK and AJ.

However when you bet its quite reasonable for villian to call a bet with his PP ( and weak aces if he has them) but he can never bet them as either a bluff or for value himself.

Can you see why?

Like I said I'm not against betting out,
It's just another option and one that requires thinking to be outside the box.

Checking to induce is not an option in this case for the reasons stated above.

 

[ComplexPlaya]

lol Keep fighting the good fight Stu ^^

I strongly disagree with checking the turn, and I can't believe noone's mentioned it. I want 3 streets of value out of this hand.

We don't have a big sample and don't know that much about him, so we have to put him as the standard 10nl TAG, then there are a lot of AXs hands in his range, even if it's the tightest ATs+ AJo+ we're still ahead of that range so what is the point in checking the turn and/or river besides missing value ?

 

[Stu_Ungar]

lol Keep fighting the good fight Stu ^^

I strongly disagree with checking the turn, and I can't believe noone's mentioned it. I want 3 streets of value out of this hand.

We don't have a big sample and don't know that much about him, so we have to put him as the standard 10nl TAG, then there are a lot of AXs hands in his range, even if it's the tightest ATs+ AJo+ we're still ahead of that range so what is the point in checking the turn and/or river besides missing value ?

lol

 

[KardKlub]

Yes and we have a value hand, we are ahead of villains calling range (see my earlier post)

Yes we are ahead of most hands he holds, but neither me or you can tell for sure if he's calling with them.


This is the bit that makes almost no sense.

Lets give villian 99 (99 is the same as QQ here but I think it might help highlight whats going on)

Why would villian bluff in this spot? Like you just said the river is almost always for value.

No I said a bet on the river by us, the person with the lead, the person who first checked the turn to get worse hands to bet into us and missed and now wish to get value from the river. The river bet turns our hand face up IMO

If villian BLUFFS then he bets to fold out better hands, what better hands fold? A weak ace? KK QQ JJ TT (maybe TT) this isnt a spot villian can ever bluff. If he bets and you fold then he could have checked through and still win at SD because you simply dont have a hand and were bluffing the flop.

Why wouldn't villian think he couldn't get folds? this makes no sense. we check twice after a so called failed c bet.

So if he cant bluff can he bet for value? A value bet isnt a "I have the best hand bet" 99 could be the best hand. A value bet is a "I have the best hand and you have enough worse hands that you can call me with bet". Put simply why would he bet 99-QQ for value.. whats he hoping you call him with?

This all depends on how we've been playing at the table.Are we a calling station. can't give up second pair to a small value bet or even a second or third pair. How can i answer this one. How can you.

So when you check, villian should check back all his PP and bet only with AK and AJ.

This makes no sense.

However when you bet its quite reasonable for villian to call a bet with his PP ( and weak aces if he has them?

Yes he can, i agree with this anyway, i just think you get way more folds




Checking to induce is not an option in this case for the reasons stated above.

This is 10c 5 c people bet for all kinds of reasons.

anyway agree to disagree either way villian gets to either

call/fold/raise
check/Bet

 

[Stu_Ungar]

This is 10c 5 c people bet for all kinds of reasons.

anyway agree to disagree either way villian gets to either

call/fold/raise
check/call

That is true,. people are bad.. but checking to induce a spew isnt a strategy.

Checking here is akin to an Indian Rain Dance, you check spwey guy spews and you think that was down to your check. If the guy is spwey enough to think he can value bet here or bluff here then he is also spwey enough to call believing he has the best hand.

As there is no logic to the actions of the spewy opponent, checking to induce spew will not induce spew with a known frequency, i.e. same board, same action, villian has same cards yet his actions will vary from day to day.

However his calling frequency will stay relatively constant. He is a bad player he has a pair and if he wants to see if its good or not he has to pay off one bet.. he pays almost 100% of the time.

So checking here is just not an option.

If you think it is then please write a logical argument as to why it is or find fault in the logical argument I have provided in support of betting being far superior to checking.

 

[KardKlub]

lol Keep fighting the good fight Stu ^^

I strongly disagree with checking the turn, and I can't believe noone's mentioned it. I want 3 streets of value out of this hand.

We don't have a big sample and don't know that much about him, so we have to put him as the standard 10nl TAG, then there are a lot of AXs hands in his range, even if it's the tightest ATs+ AJo+ we're still ahead of that range so what is the point in checking the turn and/or river besides missing value ?

Keep fighting the fight? the guy's a terminater. Until you see it my way i wont stop

All smiles stu and said in good spirit.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

Keep fighting the fight? the guy's a terminater. Until you see it my way i wont stop

All smiles stu and said in good spirit.

In all honesty I reply for 2 reasons.

1. I genuinely want to help people and get satisfaction form that.

2. By writing out my thoughts in a logical manor, it helps me clarify my own understanding. Thats why there is less grey areas.

 

[KardKlub]

That is true,. people are bad.. but checking to induce a spew isnt a strategy.

Checking here is akin to an Indian Rain Dance, you check spwey guy spews and you think that was down to your check. If the guy is spwey enough to think he can value bet here or bluff here then he is also spwey enough to call believing he has the best hand.

As there is no logic to the actions of the spewy opponent, checking to induce spew will not induce spew with a known frequency, i.e. same board, same action, villian has same cards yet his actions will vary from day to day.

However his calling frequency will stay relatively constant. He is a bad player he has a pair and if he wants to see if its good or not he has to pay off one bet.. he pays almost 100% of the time.

So checking here is just not an option.

If you think it is then please write a logical argument as to why it is or find fault in the logical argument I have provided in support of betting being far superior to checking.

Good players can get lost in a hand too. It doesn't make them spewy monkeys. When you check the river most players loose there way and bet to show strength with most decent hands with the only option in there mind is that you'll fold. Sure you'll loose a bet now and then but in my mind the play is more profitable in this senario and others like it over the long term.

The way the hand played out with the check on the turn, our hand was always going to be just a bluff catcher.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

The way the hand played out with the check on the turn, our hand was always going to be just a bluff catcher.

How can our hand be a bluff catcher? Its ahead of his calling range!

You know what.. you are 100% right

I said I liked helping people, if you cant see that our bet is for value despite everything I have written; then I cant help you.

 

[KardKlub]

In all honesty I reply for 2 reasons.

1. I genuinely want to help people and get satisfaction form that.

2. By writing out my thoughts in a logical manor, it helps me clarify my own understanding. Thats why there is less grey areas.

And big respect from me. (when i read this back it sounded sarcastic, no i mean it, without you and others this would be 2+2 lol)

 

[KardKlub]

How can our hand be a bluff catcher? Its ahead of his calling range!

You know what.. you are 100% right

I said I liked helping people, if you cant see that our bet is for value despite everything I have written; then I cant help you.

Now your just being silly, Ive never knocked your play, just defended mine so why you should say that is anyones guess.

Good day to you.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

Now your just being silly, Ive never knocked your play, just defended mine so why you should say that is anyones guess.

Good day to you.

Look value isnt some mysterious concept.. you simply add up the number of hands that beat you and compare it to the number of hands you beat.

If he calls with QQ and this is very reasonable to assume he does.. then our bet is for value.

I dont see how you can have people turning all kinds of SD hands into spewy bluffs (which arent actually bluffs as nothing better folds) yet maintain that QQ is outside of villians calling range. The guy who dosent call with QQ in this spot never bets anything that you could bluff catch with in this spot.

 

[ComplexPlaya]

Look value isnt some mysterious concept.. you simply add up the number of hands that beat you and compare it to the number of hands you beat.

If he calls with QQ and this is very reasonable to assume he does.. then our bet is for value.

I dont see how you can have people turning all kinds of SD hands into spewy bluffs (which arent actually bluffs as nothing better folds) yet maintain that QQ is outside of villians calling range. The guy who dosent call with QQ in this spot never bets anything that you could bluff catch with in this spot.

Yeah seems to be a trend with his posts, it's the MUBS as Baluga calls it - monsters under the bed syndrome. No offense KardKlub, but being too passive only means you're going to severely chop your winrate. You really want to give a random 10nl tag credit for folding AJ and down or mid pairs here ?

 

[Stu_Ungar]

Yeah seems to be a trend with his posts, it's the MUBS as Baluga calls it - monsters under the bed syndrome. No offense KardKlub, but being too passive only means you're going to severely chop your winrate. You really want to give a random 10nl tag credit for folding AJ and down or mid pairs here ?

Plus it makes you incredibly exploitable on rivers.

If you dont bet AQ for value here than your river value range is AK, 2pair and better.

So this has 2 implications.

1. your bet river stat is so low that when you do bet everyone and their cat knows to fold.

2. if your bet river stat looks normal.. you bluff too much because your value range is so narrow so a thinking opponent can show a profit by putting in a health raise on any river you bet. Your range is polarised and weighted towards bluffs. They can also bluff catch a ton and be exploiting you.

So basically your river bet stat will either tell your opponent that he can

a) never call your river bets without the nuts

b) call all of your river bets or raise them as your value range is too narrow

basically people can play perfectly against you because your river value range is too narrow.

 

[ComplexPlaya]

Plus it makes you incredibly exploitable on rivers.

If you dont bet AQ for value here than your river value range is AK, 2pair and better.

So this has 2 implications.

1. your bet river stat is so low that when you do bet everyone and their cat knows to fold.

2. if your bet river stat looks normal.. you bluff too much because your value range is so narrow so a thinking opponent can show a profit by putting in a health raise on any river you bet. Your range is polarised and weighted towards bluffs. They can also bluff catch a ton and be exploiting you.

So basically your river bet stat will either tell your opponent that he can

a) never call your river bets without the nuts

b) call all of your river bets or raise them as your value range is too narrow

basically people can play perfectly against you because your river value range is too narrow.

Nice, I do look at river bet % when I want to call down light, but not sure exactly what good/bad % are, for istance which % would be a) and which for b) ?

 

[Stu_Ungar]

Nice, I do look at river bet % when I want to call down light, but not sure exactly what good/bad % are, for istance which % would be a) and which for b) ?

Its one of those "it depends" answers.

What happens is people get to fold on the flop and turn so the river range is dependent on how much they fold before the river.

If you Have PT3 you can run reports with VPIP and PFR so you can construct some generic player types and then look to a) how often they get to the river and b) how often they bet it.

Or just keep an eye open try and see what the norm is for a player type.

Play a game when you are bored at the tables "guess the bet river %" see if you can get good at it!

Once you have a feel of whats normal, make notes on people who dont value bet very wide but have the normal river bet%

I dont have exact values myself as I only thought it up a couple of weeks ago!

 

[ComplexPlaya]

Its one of those "it depends" answers.

What happens is people get to fold on the flop and turn so the river range is dependent on how much they fold before the river.

If you Have PT3 you can run reports with VPIP and PFR so you can construct some generic player types and then look to a) how often they get to the river and b) how often they bet it.

Or just keep an eye open try and see what the norm is for a player type.

Play a game when you are bored at the tables "guess the bet river %" see if you can get good at it!

Once you have a feel of whats normal, make notes on people who dont value bet very wide but have the normal river bet%

I dont have exact values myself as I only thought it up a couple of weeks ago!

It's a good exercise, though it's conflicting with my desire to gear away from stats and towards active reads / notes. Some of the best players in the world have spoken against HUDs usage and this seems a bit over the top

 

[Stu_Ungar]

Well excercises like this help you to get away from stats.

The first thing is to establish whats normal and stats help there.

The next step is to spot people who are way off normal (the stats help to confirm if your read is correct)

SAy you establish that for a given player type the norm is X.. then you start trying to figure out who is way off X, but the stats come into play in the sense that you get instant feedback.

The idea isnt to establish the norm and then look up players stats its to make your read first and then use stats to confirm that you are generally making good reads.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

Even Beluga Whale has a HUD now!!

 

[ComplexPlaya]

Even Beluga Whale has a HUD now!!

For real??? He's the one I had in mind, he berated huds like no other lol

The other one I remember was ryan fees, think he is still without one

 

[Stu_Ungar]

Yeah he has mentioned it in a few videos he did on DC.

Obviously he dosent rely on it too much, but seems to like it more than he expected he would.

 

[bgomez89]

I strongly disagree with checking the turn, and I can't believe noone's mentioned it. I want 3 streets of value out of this hand.

I checked the turn to keep hands like TT+ in because those probably fold to a 2nd barrel thus only giving us 1 street of value

 

[ComplexPlaya]

I checked the turn to keep hands like TT+ in because those probably fold to a 2nd barrel thus only giving us 1 street of value

And you were counting on a low river card to get value out of them again?
That's too much fancy playing, the bulk of the range you want to get value from is Ax hands so target that part of his range

 

[-Phil Ivey27]

And you were counting on a low river card to get value out of them again?
That's too much fancy playing, the bulk of the range you want to get value from is Ax hands so target that part of his range

If he does have Ax you still get plenty of value on the river and don't scare off the pocket pairs. Also, if he does have Ax he should be betting that turn.. Therefore, it slightly decreases the chance of him having Ax and increases the chance of him having a PP or 87s or something. (Not to be to results orientated)