Originally Posted by F Paulsson
Flop is Jd8d7h.
You have KdTd. Your opponent moves all-in and flips up QQ.
Do you fold or call? Who has the better hand?
rofl. At first I thought you gave an example of a primary draw. I guess I get a bit more credit than that.
*If you dont already know how difficult it will be to answer this question because of lack of info, you will when im done.
*The chance of my ever having seen this flop are very (fraction of percent) low. My opponent would have had to grossly misplay his hand.
Q1: Which is the better hand.
A1: Looks like a coin flip to me (not much more than 2% either way)
Q2: Did I call or fold (you didnt mention what any of the action was).
A2: I folded to his preflop raise (most likely; based on lack of info.)
Implied Q3:Assuming I saw the flop (Maybe he got stupid and limped) Do I call a value bet?
A3a: Yes, if I put him on QQ (which would be impossible as far as I know)(he did limp after all)
A3b: No, if I put him on better than 1 pair or a better flush draw (which I likely do on a limp pot and with a large bet)
Implied Q4: Do I call an all in bet on the flop?
A4: No, Not only are PO no good. I am not invested in the pot. I would also be putting him on a better hand here. (2pr,set,better draw)
Would I like to play a hand like this for my entire buy in (cash game) or my late game stack (tourney)? Absolutely not.
Do I avoid these situations at the casino? Yes, probably %90 of them.
*Before I continue: I apologize for my offensive tone in earlier posts. (It is a problem that I have always struggled with.) We got off on entirely the wrong foot, which is entirely my fault.
I am not trying to devalue the use of PO in poker theory. I just think that PO is an ingredient in making a good call; a secondary one.
Before examining PO you must determine what you are willing to risk based on the size of your bankroll. I would not play any of the 3 scenarios we have discussed for a large pot using my 1st buy in on a given day (cash game) or when my tourney is on the line.
In fact, with my 1st buy in I nearly always avoid anything less than a 3 to 1 favorite. This is absolutely necessary when you play cash games. Players who fail at this concept are the ones cycling through the game at a pace of 3 ppl per hour.
In my world, players who apply only PO & EV to thier decisions bust and leave before my tight ass can get any of thier buy in.
I am longwinded.... Throw me another theoretical situation (maybe some more details) Let's make a useful discussion out of this...