Odds to call flush draw

[F Paulsson]

As far as failing to addess ppl's questions: I have been asked alot of rhetorical questions that are obviously designed to damage my credibility. Also, I am taking one view of the issue and the entire forum seems to be taking the other. (with a few exceptions) It is as if the issue is cut & dry or has been previously discussed. Meanwhile, very little logic has been offered in contrast to my claim.

This is nonsense. It's specifically the logic that you've been dodging.

I'll do something I usually don't in a discussion, and appeal to authority. Dan Harrington and Greg Raymer disagree with DND. Dan Harrington believes that the most important consideration, even in tournaments, should be pot odds. Greg Raymer has stated that there's no "good tournament player" would would knowingly pass up getting it all in with a 55% chance to win.

And that's for tournaments. Where survival is the name of the game. Why fear getting it all in as a favorite in a cash game when all you need to do is reload if you lose the coin toss? Because you're playing with a small bankroll and losing this one buy-in means you cannot afford to continue. So you get outplayed by the opposition and pushed off of the better hands.

I hope you realize why most of us would rather play solid poker than scared poker.

You say that you'd rather play $500 buy-in games than $100 buy-in games and win your 1k a week in a shorter time. And to this I counter that if you actually played a more solid game and stopped folding winners, you could probably crush the $100 game for as much money a week as you today beat the $500 for, with far less risk and far more peace of mind.

 

[fishfood]

This may have been covered in an earlier thread somewhere but I don't feel like searching for it so here it goes.

Your in BB with a stack of 15k+ late in an MTT and your already in the money.
Blinds 500/1000
Stacks are seat 1-13k+(UTG), seat 2-17k+, seat 3-21k+, seat 4-9k+, seat 5-11k+, seat 6-10k+,seat 7-30k+ and SB-25k+ respectively, seats 1,3,7 limp and SB completes.
You look down to see Ad3d, flop comes Kd2d10c, seat 1 pushes all-in.
My question is this, how many callers would you need to make this a proper call?
I have been in a similar position b4 and would think something like "Just two more callers please to make this an easy call for me"

Ok...I didn't bother to read the argument that has dominated most of this post because usually those kinds of arguments don't do any good.

There are two schools of thought on this. Seat one pushed all in and you are seat 2 so you can only count on the money from you and seat 1. by pot odds you are getting 17k(5 players in the hand pre flop for tc 5000 + the 12k that seat one had behind him) and have to call 12k from your stack leaving you with 4k. You CANNOT COUNT ON ANY OTHER CALLERS AFTER THAT. Assume that everyone else will fold at this point and make your decision based upon that info. This is an easy fold for me. I am not going to go this far in a tourney and risk it all on a 3-1 draw. I would rather fold here and wait for a better opportunity. IF I am going to risk it all on a draw then I want to be the person pushing...not calling. This is my opinion.

Now to play devil's advocate. If you call and win you will have the 17k in the pot plus your 16k for a total of 33k. Now, if this were the final table then you would be the Chip Leader and have a very good chance at winning or at least getting top 3(which is where the real money is). Since you didn't include that info I am going to assume that there is at least 3-4 full tables left. At this stage of the tourney you can call and hope to double up and have a good chance at the final table. Sometimes you have to put your chips in drawing to the nuts due to your stack size. IF you fold you have 16xbb left and can still play for a little while. If you call and lose you will be on a respirator and have to push or fold any hand you are dealt. How much do you feel like gambling? I have seen players call here and pray. Sometimes poker is like that but I don't believe it is the correct play. Now if you were on the button then things might be different but that is a whole other discussion.

 

[dj11]

As I've re-read this thread several times over the past few days, and thought about it quite a bit, I think that neither view is wrong.

My position is that without complete information, there are never any absolutes in poker, so saying any odds should be blindly adhered to is as bad as saying to ignore those odds is absurd. Those odds exist however and CAN NOT be ignored. They are a tool, a piece of information needed to make sound table decisions.

How we each use them is the crux of this discussion IMHO.

Also IMHO, DND, you have suffered no reputational damage, indeed the opposite. You presented your case well.

FP, AG, REX and a few who have tilted over this thread and not posted have presented their case well. A bit dogmatically, but well nonetheless.