C
cuffslurp
Enthusiast
Silver Level
For the mathematically challenged, learning to estimate poker odds can be a nightmare. The math may be simple enough, but the calculations are often too difficult to perform under time restraints. Poker expert Phil Gordon has tried to remedy this situation by introducing the rule of 4 and 2 – a valuable tool to determine the chances of making your hand. Regretfully, it can still be a hassle to evaluate your bet, because of the mental leap between percentages and odds. Moreover, division can be a tricky operation to carry out – as opposed to multiplication.
After some research, I have found a way to evaluate bets using simple addition and multiplication. First, you apply Gordon’s rule, i.e. multiply your outs by 4 or 2, for the chance of making your hand after two or one cards, respectively. Then look up the resulting percentage in the following easily memorized table:
Now, multiply your bet by n – the result is the minimum size of the pot if you want to break even. Ideally, you’ll want the pot at showdown to be bigger than the projected break-even pot. Note that this final pot includes all bets from all rounds – yours and your opponent’s.
For example:
You’re in a $2-$4 Limit poker game, at the turn. The current pot contains $14, and you predict the final pot will contain $30. You’re one suited card short of a flush, so you have 9 outs – which means your chance to win is about 18%. You multiply your $4 bet by 6, for a projected break-even pot of approximately $24. Conclusion: your bet is justified.
After some research, I have found a way to evaluate bets using simple addition and multiplication. First, you apply Gordon’s rule, i.e. multiply your outs by 4 or 2, for the chance of making your hand after two or one cards, respectively. Then look up the resulting percentage in the following easily memorized table:
Code:
% n
---------
50 2
33 3
25 4 Notice how % x n = +/- 100
20 5
17 6 The table simplifies what would have
14 7 been a time-consuming division.
13 8
11 9
10 10
9 11
Now, multiply your bet by n – the result is the minimum size of the pot if you want to break even. Ideally, you’ll want the pot at showdown to be bigger than the projected break-even pot. Note that this final pot includes all bets from all rounds – yours and your opponent’s.
For example:
You’re in a $2-$4 Limit poker game, at the turn. The current pot contains $14, and you predict the final pot will contain $30. You’re one suited card short of a flush, so you have 9 outs – which means your chance to win is about 18%. You multiply your $4 bet by 6, for a projected break-even pot of approximately $24. Conclusion: your bet is justified.