WSOP ME Question from a Legitimate Poker Pro

[PokerFunKid]

Well, obviously I don't have the BR for playing the WSOP ME if [in my example] it takes me 3 years, but this isn't about BRM. I don't think a lot of the players that play the WSOP ME are properly rolled to play the game. I mentioned in my first post, losing 10K is no the issue, so the money has no affect on my decision to fold.

Like I said, mathematically the call is correct and I agree with the math. However, given the question, I'm looking at it from my POV as who I am now. I'm not rich and deciding to play the WSOP is a huge and probably a once in a lifetime deal. My edge at the game would be so small, that I'm very likely playing for the experience with the hope of running deep more than anything else. So, I would feel that risking all the time spent saving, sacrificing, planning, set-backs, etc to get to the WSOP ME would not be worth me risking for a double on the first hand. Especially if I feel like that a double doesn't necessary increase my edge over the field. So, I'm not really gaining much but risking a lot more. Given that we're very deep stacked and blinds last 2 hours (i think), there will be plenty of opportunities as the game progresses. The only hand I call an all-in here in this situation is AA.

If I was properly rolled, would I make the same decision? Of course not, because there would be a lot less planning and saving needed to play the WSOP ME, so that factor would have less of a impact on my decision. I can just take another shot next year and the year after, etc. That's not something I can do now. If I was properly rolled, the WSOP ME would be just one of many big MTTs I would be playing.

I just don't understand why you would buy in to the main event and fold in a spot where you have around 25% chance to bust and around 75% chance to double up.

You aren't buying in just to play a few hours in the main event. If you buy in, even if you save up for it for a long time, your dream is to run deep right? Your dream is not to make stupid folds and hope you play a couple more hours to blind death. If you fold in this spot i would advice to never play the tournament.

''hope of running deep''. If you want to run deep you're not going to make it if you are folding in these spots. You won't find much better spots if you fold here. Are you going to wait to flop the nuts? And even then, Lets say you flop the nuts with 9T on a 678dd board and villian shoves. Are you going to fold also? Especialy if you say you have no edge in these tournaments you have to take these spots. Just go a nice vacation for $10K instead of being scared to call off in a 75% spot to double up in the first hand.

I know most people won't ever play the main, but i'm surprised people say they would consider folding here if they played.

 

[teepack]

You guys who are advocating the insta-call are obviously the poker experts and those of us who would consider folding in that spot are just idiots (fools as Detroitjunkie said) who don't know anything. Please continue sharing with us your vast poker knowledge.

This year's main event took 10 days to complete, so you're going to need a lot more than one double up to win it. You're going to have to make risky plays at some point, but I just don't see a reason to do it on the very first hand of a 10-day tournament! But that's just me.

A cash game? Hell yea, that's an instacall. A regular tourney at my bar poker league? No brainer. The Main Event? I'm folding.

 

[Carl Trooper]

You guys who are advocating the insta-call are obviously the poker experts and those of us who would consider folding in that spot are just idiots (fools as Detroitjunkie said) who don't know anything. Please continue sharing with us your vast poker knowledge.

This year's main event took 10 days to complete, so you're going to need a lot more than one double up to win it. You're going to have to make risky plays at some point, but I just don't see a reason to do it on the very first hand of a 10-day tournament! But that's just me.

A cash game? Hell yea, that's an instacall. A regular tourney at my bar poker league? No brainer. The Main Event? I'm folding.

I want to add my input here as well.

During my ME run I wasn't all in ONCE until day 5. It is a marathon, not a sprint. I was doing my best to avoid big pot confrontations unless I had it.

Again, not saying I would fold. But can see the reasoning for it.

Or if you could promise me an instant teleportation back home and comp the $ spent on hotels and flights


And for those saying its not good to play with scared money, obviously. But no one is rolled to play the M.E.

Its just a superbowl for poker players pro and rec who want to "take a shot".

For many people its to play as long as possible and have a little luck and run deep. Doubling up on day 1 isnt going to win you the tourney.

 

[naruto_miu]

Seriously very first hand, open ripping what 300bb's? OMG LOL, I'm not calling really, but I'm laughing as that player will be losing his/her stack quick playing like that

 

[PershingSt]

I call , while the main event has many bad players and an incredible structure , your edge vs the overall field can not be much better than 70% . At some point you have to win these hands anyways to accumulate chips throughout the longest mtt of the year . Passing on a situation like this would be a mistake imo .

 

[JPainTrainSicko]

I want to add my input here as well.

During my ME run I wasn't all in ONCE until day 5. It is a marathon, not a sprint. I was doing my best to avoid big pot confrontations unless I had it.

Again, not saying I would fold. But can see the reasoning for it.

Or if you could promise me an instant teleportation back home and comp the $ spent on hotels and flights


And for those saying its not good to play with scared money, obviously. But no one is rolled to play the M.E.

Its just a superbowl for poker players pro and rec who want to "take a shot".

For many people its to play as long as possible and have a little luck and run deep. Doubling up on day 1 isnt going to win you the tourney.

Have to agree to this trooper. It would cause some mental anguish and maybe some slight tremors and eye twitches as I folded the otherwise huge favorite lol. But the risk when all is factored above the ev of the hands, is just not worth it for the ME. But that's just for me, a regular guy who trys to take the game serious when he plays.

 

[TheGenera1]

Found this by pure chance it's a similar situation

http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/a...ing-a-blind-shove-first-hand-of-the-15888.htm

 

[detroitjunkie]

Ok, first off I didnt call anyone an idiot, I said foolish and here is why.

To double up on the first hand of a tournament is a massive advantage going forward and will allow you some room to really attack your table, since you will have double all of their chips. This will take you very far, especially after the dinner break where there are only 2 levels left to play and all of the amateurs want to make it to day 2 (for the thrill, not the money). I dealt to Phil Helmuth on the last down of day 1 in 2015, and when we reached the final 5 hands he remarked to everyone that he was going to raise all last 5 hands 5x the BB and possible shove on the flop. He did this and won every hand without a showdown, now he didnt take much but he did pad his stack a bit. He had chips to do this too, he was not even close to short stacked. You can run this way if you have a good stack at the end of day one. And no, the chips you win will be mostly insignificant in the long haul, but you use them to make even more - the old adage 'the rich get richer' plays a big part. Now you can turn your 60k into over 100k by the end of the day with ease (barring a bad outdraw of course) by bullying everyone else at your table. This will allow you to have a good run on day 2 and really help you make the money on day 3 (or sometimes when espn steps in day 4).

My question is, if you dont make that call on the first hand, when do you make it? If you try to wait till day 3, you probably wont be around to make it anyways, or your such a short stack it wont really help much at all (not to mention you may have to face more people in the hand by this time) This is what happens when you play scared money, you get picked off to the point that when you make your move no one cares and it doesnt help you.

Also, to expand the question - do you make the call if you have AA in the same spot - you are only getting about an extra 8.5% on the hand - is that enough? How about AA and you see villain has 9 10 suited - if you do you are only getting an extra 5.5% on the call meaning you are still gonna lose 1 in 5 times. Where does it end? Are you just gonna fold all the way to day 3? Aint gonna happen.

I wish if I ever get to actually play in the ME I have 8 other players who would fold here, because I will just go AI with every hand I get until the table breaks, which would be most of the day (depending on the draw) and I would have a pretty good stack by bag-n-tag

The ONLY reason to fold here is because you want entertainment value for your buy-in and you are scared of getting knocked out. I say quite an expensive hobby you have chosen here. Like someone above said why not just take the family on a weeks vacation to Hawaii for the same price. Because if this is your only reason for playing you wont make it very far (unless you get Jamie Gold lucky- fat chance that happens again though)

Im not sure about all of you, but I play poker to win money, not for the memories of playing a popular and historical event.

 

[TheGenera1]

If you look at the answers that the pro's provided, you can clearly see just how divided they all are on this. Leaves me to believe there is no correct answer at all.

Also the above post is pretty good.

 

[detroitjunkie]

If you look at the answers that the pro's provided, you can clearly see just how divided they all are on this. Leaves me to believe there is no correct answer at all.

Well correct answer depends on what you want to do. If you want to make money you call. If you want bang for entertainment buck you fold. Both are correct. I wonder what the original answers were

The answers from the link above are based on pros not knowing what the other person's hand is.

 

[PokerFunKid]

I understand what you guys - Teepack and Carl - mean with it is a marathon and a double doesnt mean a lot at that stage, but its a spot you HAVE to take. Its super profitable. Unbelievable you guys can even think about folding here lol. I know you have to think about every spot, but this is a no brainer.

I'm just repeating myself now, so won't say anything more about it. Just wondering where this question was asked and what the answer was from the pro's. Can someone give me a link?

 

[TheGenera1]

detroitjunkie

http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/as...-the-15888.htm

Is what I'm referring to. But I do agree with your post.

 

[kissapig]

I would fold. In fact, I probably would not even look at my cards on the first hand, even on the BB with only the SB min-raising. Not going to look at my cards on the first hand and going to fold the first opportunity I get. Not going out on the first hand. Only thing that would make me even look at my cards would be that I was on the button, everyone folded or limped, checked all the way to the river and there was a possible royal flush. Then I would look at my cards and if I had a royal flush I would shove.

 

[haystack]

i would fold even though i seen his hand way to early to run a race in this type of tournament that's what i would do

 

[Four Dogs]

TOP TEN REASONS TO FOLD AK TO AQ PRE-FLOP ON THE FIRST HAND OF THE WSOPME

10​

It's your first time in Vegas and you paid $10,000 to soak in the experience of spending 3 days sitting next to a flatulent retired guy, an internet kid with a hoodie and headphones and an overweight 60 year old woman in a halter top. If you're lucky you might get involved in an enthralling debate on whether or not you should fold AK preflop to AQ for 300bb's.

9​

You're a member of a prominent poker forum (a rich one) gathering data for a thread on how long it takes to blind out in the WSOP ME if you never play a hand.

8​

Maybe I'll meet Patrik Antonius and we'll become best friends...and I'll be the best man at his wedding and we'll fall sleep on the phone together...and and I Must say, I must say!

7​

You're contemplating suicide and you're just begging for that one thing to put you over the edge.

6​

The guy with AQ is Joe Pesci.

5​

You met your soulmate on a train to Paris and all you have to go on is a WSOP chip that must have slipped from her purse as you shared that last hopeless kiss.

4​

This isn't RAZZ?

3​

I always lose with AK. AA too!

2​

You're an ex contract killer trying to leave your life of violence in the past but your insane brother (who now runs the gang you ran with) might track you down if you somehow appear on camera.

1​

Marcellus Wallace paid you to "Go down in the first". F*ck pride!

 

[Jalapano]

When I first read the question I was thinking this is a no brainer call. Now after reading through all the comments I'm starting to falter a little bit. That link that was provided to the pros discussing this topic was insightful to how the tournament can be played over a long stretch and how big of a decision this really is. I'm clearly a big favorite AK vs AQ but yes there is a chance to lose. If I am confident in my skills and I know I can win many chips, even more than this double up without having to risk any all in moments then I can see someone making a fold here. But at the end of the day, Im calling.

 

[teepack]

The bottom line is there is no wrong answer to this question. Either option is a perfectly legit play. I would personally fold in that situation, but I can fully understand why someone would call, too. It is a great chance to get a double up early, but it's also a good chance to go out on the very first hand. To me the risk is not worth the reward. I would prefer to limit my all-in exposures, pre-flop in particular, to as few as possible in the early going of a tournament. But I can also see why people say they would call, as well.

The great thing about poker is that there are a lot of different ways to play, and all can be as equally effective if done right.

 

[erysett]

From Big, with AK, even if is the first hand, and you don't know the players next to you,i think you can call

 

[steroidpro]

 

[naruto_miu]

I just need to ask this question.

We all do realize have have 300bbs right? I mean 300 bb's. Just In case I didn't say It the first time 300bbs

 

[Four Dogs]

I just need to ask this question.

We all do realize have have 300bbs right? I mean 300 bb's. Just In case I didn't say It the first time 300bbs

Soon to be 600

 

[SPANKYSN]

I see both sides of the question. I don't think I'll ever have the money to play in the ME, but I hope to play in the super seniors $1000 buy-in event in another 2 years when I turn 65 (the seniors event is for 50 yr old +...too young for me!). If I were to play in the Main event, I would have to ignore the saving, scrimping and scrounging to get the $10,000 bankroll. It is like having your cardiologist tell you that if you have a bypass, you have a 5% chance of having a stroke on the table, a 6% chance of having a heart attack, and a 3% chance you die on the table. But the bypass would be for your own good, and probably lengthen your life. So, what do you do? Chance death to live longer, or fold your hand? I know which choice I would make....actually I did have to make that choice...it was a no-brainer....and I'm still alive to maybe play in the wsop.

 

[Poker Orifice]

its a spot you HAVE to take.

agree 100%

 

[detroitjunkie]

When I first read the question I was thinking this is a no brainer call. Now after reading through all the comments I'm starting to falter a little bit. That link that was provided to the pros discussing this topic was insightful to how the tournament can be played over a long stretch and how big of a decision this really is. I'm clearly a big favorite AK vs AQ but yes there is a chance to lose. If I am confident in my skills and I know I can win many chips, even more than this double up without having to risk any all in moments then I can see someone making a fold here. But at the end of the day, Im calling.

Yes, the link did have some interesting discussion, BUT in that scenario you do not know what they have and your hand is randomly strong. Our scenario is that you KNOW what the villain has and you know what you have.

If I had AK and didn't know what villain had I would most likely fold here.

I know this will most likely kill the discussion, but what if someone paid for you to be in the ME...does this change the minds of anybody who said fold?

What it boils down to is do you value the experience above the money...I would value the money because if you win any you can do it again, if you lose you can still rail it out and meet all sorts of people, you still may even be able to become Pat Antonius's best friend.

 

[TheGenera1]

I see both sides of the question. I don't think I'll ever have the money to play in the ME, but I hope to play in the super seniors $1000 buy-in event in another 2 years when I turn 65 (the seniors event is for 50 yr old +...too young for me!). If I were to play in the Main event, I would have to ignore the saving, scrimping and scrounging to get the $10,000 bankroll. It is like having your cardiologist tell you that if you have a bypass, you have a 5% chance of having a stroke on the table, a 6% chance of having a heart attack, and a 3% chance you die on the table. But the bypass would be for your own good, and probably lengthen your life. So, what do you do? Chance death to live longer, or fold your hand? I know which choice I would make....actually I did have to make that choice...it was a no-brainer....and I'm still alive to maybe play in the WSOP.

Good for you mate, glad it went well. Hope you get to play in the ME some day. If you get really old, maybe you can afford to just have a laugh and gamble your childrens inheritance at the ME haha