What are the average bubble factors for $1 27 man mtt?

[essexcjm]

Thinking of moving up from 25c to $1 mtt as I have the roll for it and noticed that the 45 man 1+0.2 seem to run like once every 30 mins

Anyone know the average final table bubble factor for these tournies as I tried to work it out myself and mine look ridiculously ott

 

[losched16]

What do you mean by average bubble factor? I was about to write a bunch of general guidelines for bubble play, but before I do that, what exactly are you looking for? Do you just want to know how to play on the bubble?

 

[essexcjm]

What I am looking for is an average bubble factor in stars 27 man $1+0.20

So I can use the average bubble factor to estimate how much equity I need versus villains shoving range

The structure in the 27 mans on stars is

1st $10
2nd 7.2
3rd 4.80
4th $2.80
5th $2.20

 

[losched16]

Oh I totally misread what you were asking. Sorry. The bubble factor can be really complicated to calculate. I remember reading that SNG Power Tools can do the calculations for you. Also, there is a book called Kill Everyone that goes into detail on the bubble factor.

I would say that if you have a solid understanding of ICM and review your hands in Sit n Go Wiz, you will do just fine. It's pretty hard to calculate your bubble factor during actual game play. This probably doesn't help in regards to your question, but I would use a calculator to determine the actual factor

 

[RamdeeBen]

I think you should miss the $1.20 for a start, that's like 20% rake which is really really bad.

The turbos, fill within a few seconds and if you get enough volume in it handles the variance much better.

As for your question, I'm not sure if anyone can really answer it as it's very player dependent and knowing what range of hands that particular player is shoving/calling with..

As you do sound like you know about ICM then input into SnG Wizard, I'm sure you know that $ equity is a hell of a lot more if you're short stacked so you would have to be calling with the very top of your range against any player to make it profitable and again, shoving a lot wider in position where someone with with a large stack would be making a mistake by calling regardless of if he has you crushed.

As most do not know what ICM means though, I think you need to make some re adjustments to how your players are playing. The majority do tighten up on the bubble, so you should be shoving a much wider range.

 

[WiZZiM]

Bubble factor is actually pretty easy to work out. I'm a math idiot and if i can work it out, so can you.

So the bubble factor is expressed as Risk/Reward.

Risk is our equity at the start of the hand, minus our equity if we lose.

Reward is our equity gained by winning the all in.

So, with even average stacks at a 27 man turbo being t6750 our average equity is 16.667% (EqStart)

Ok so we have one side of the equation, now the reward. If we double up and win, we go to t13,500 and our equity is now 25% (EqWin)

So the equation is as follows;

EQStart / (EQWin-EQStart)

or

16.667 / (25-16.667) = ~2.00 bubble factor

 

[WiZZiM]

Unfortunately, when our stack size differs, so does our bubble factor. In most situations players will actually have differant bubble factors. So let's use a hypothetical example with more realisitic stack sizes.

So the situation is this, we are in the BB and the SB who covers us shoves all in on the bubble in a 27 man SNG. Stack sizes are;

t13900 -UTG
t12000 -HJ
t4600 -CO
t3000 -Btn
t4000 -SB
t3000 -BB

Blinds are 150/300 (i know pokerstars does not have this level, but just to keep this simple in a hypothetical situation, lets assume they do have a 150/300 level)

Ok, so, we as the BB want to know our bubble factor for this particular situation. So, first, we need to work out how much equity we have right now, you can do this with jsut about any ICM calculator that lets you input a 27 man payout %.

So the equity for all stacks before blinds and antes were posted is;

t13900 =25.3762%
t12000 =23.9745%
t4600 =14.8330%
t3000 =11.1155%
t4000 =13.5855%
t3000 =11.1155%

Ok, so our starting equity or (EQStart) is 11.1155%

So what happens when we call this persons all in and we double up?

Well, lets use our ICM calculator again.

Stack sizes are now;
t13900 =25.5639%
t12000 =24.1996%
t4600 =15.5219%
t3000 =12.1903%
t1000 =4.7235%
t6000 =17.8008%

So, our equity jumps to 17.8008% (EQwin)now we just use our formula above to work out our bubble factor for this situation.

So EQstart / (EQwin-EqStart)

or

11.1155 / (17.8008 - 11.1155) = ~1.66 Bubble factor.

So we now know that our bubble factor is indeed much lower in this particular situation. But what can that actually tell us about what hands we can call with, or in particular, what % of time we need to win in order for this to be a profitable call?

So, first we want to work out our actual pot odds for this hand, which is

3300:2700 or 1.2:1

So now lets work out our adjusted odds, all we need to do here is divide the left side by the bubble factor.

1.2/1.66 or .72:1

To convert this to a win %, add 1 and use the inverse

1/1.72=58.13% chance of winning.

 

[WiZZiM]

So, to avoid babbling anymore, it's obviously impossible to calculate this in game. As Losched16 said, the book 'kill everyone' goes into (much better) detail on how to calculate this factor, my way of working things out is also a little bit differant i believe.

So what we can actually do is just intuitively estimate our bubble factor in game. We can do this by working out the average bubble factors for differant stages of SNGs. From there we can sort of guess how big our bubble factor is, and how much wider we can call.

 

[RamdeeBen]

WizzIM is a legend.

Nice work once again!