Is waiting for bubble to pop the right move, or scared poker?

[12551255]

To me it's scared poker. I do it all the time. But to fold AA. WOW! It would have to be a pretty big cash to do that.

 

[akyurukov]

Well, in a satelite YES... in MTT even so close to bubble NO !
This is the best starting hand man AA how could you...... aaah

 

[Bob23bk]

Bob. The answer is really down to you and what you are happy with.
...
Can you afford to lose your buy in? If you are managing your bankroll correctly, then the answer should be yes. If the answer is yes, then shove. If the answer is No, then you should consider whether you should be playing this tourney at this buy in!
...
The other question within this is, what are your chances of beating the bubble? You will have observed how slow things get towards the bubble
...
Folding AA can be the right decision, but only in limited circumstances

Although it seems absurd, I am quite happy with my decision.

I 'could' afford to lose my buy-in, but I was playing well beyond my means: 1/3 of my roll in a MTT. No need to harp on me, I understand this is retarded but you must take some ridiculous risks when attempting to build a roll from nothing. It was a free shot (bought in with freeroll winnings) and I can't remember how many times I've read that putting yourself in uncomfortable positions is a crucial part in becoming a better player.

The tourney was very low stakes, and after folding AA I made it ITM in 2 hands. I nearly blinded out before getting sucked out on with AK, but I actually made it to the 2nd tier of payouts as others realized they had cashed and loosened up :icon_thum

Thanks for going in-depth here, I'm amazed that people continue to regurgitate previous posts... I truly appreciate you adding to the conversation rather than kicking the dead horse :ridinghor

To me it's scared poker. I do it all the time.

Don't quite understand what you mean here

This is the best starting hand man AA how could you...... aaah

Nothing like getting a player tilted with a forum post :laugh:

 

[pain_pain_go_away]

Although it seems absurd, I am quite happy with my decision.

Well, that's all that really matters in the end. GL grinding it up Bob.

 

[bremensha]

if you go for min cashing in MTT you are playing the wrong game.
The price structure in MTT demands playing for places 1-4. The wsop of course is another thing.

 

[11012015]

Maybe you are right. Money makes people to do different things. In most cases the correctness of the decision depends on the situation at the table.:smile:

 

[w8888]

It really depends on how comfortable you are playing deeper in the tournament and what you are trying to accomplish in the tournament. Some players are looking to cash, so they might play tight, but people trying to win can abuse this. Maybe if you are overplaying your bankroll, just stay on the conservative side.

 

[Xmaster]

I wouldn't fold AA there, because you don't want to min cash..if you don't shove you get maybe through the bubble, but you wil not get such a great chance to dobble up anymore.

 

[timfbmx]

The hugest chunk of the prize pool in mtt poker is in the top 3 places. So in my opinion you should always be playing to win the tourney. There is just so much more value in winning as opposed to min cashing. With that said if it's a huge buy in mtt relative to your bankroll. And maybe you satelighted in. If that's the case than maybe you can make a smart decision for your bankroll and make sure you min cash any way you can.

 

[micalupagoo]

you should be shoving many hands before you blind down so low
I used to play to just min cash, CardsChat taught me better
Id rather bubble 10 games in a row to have the chance to run deeper
it pays off in the long run

 

[Bob23bk]

Well, that's all that really matters in the end. GL grinding it up Bob.

Thanks, wishing you some major victories soon... I believe in karma and you are stacking it up! :icon_thum

you should be shoving many hands before you blind down so low

I did not end up at 5BB because of waiting for too long... I ran into a bad hand before with either a suckout or some other plain unlucky situation (KK vs AA for example)

Id rather bubble 10 games in a row to have the chance to run deeper
it pays off in the long run

You missed one of the major points of the analysis:

Maybe if you are overplaying your bankroll, just stay on the conservative side.

With that said if it's a huge buy in mtt relative to your bankroll. And maybe you satelighted in. If that's the case than maybe you can make a smart decision for your bankroll and make sure you min cash any way you can.

It was a very large portion of my bankroll, thus min cashing for even 30-40% on top of buy-in made a large profit proportionate to my roll.

 

[EvertonGirl]

It was a very large portion of my bankroll, thus min cashing for even 30-40% on top of buy-in made a large profit proportionate to my roll.

So you were playing scared poker because you paid for a BI you simply can't afford. DON'T DO THIS!!! Stick to games within your BR or you will end up a losing player in the long run. Patience is a must in poker, so be patient, and pay for games that you can afford to lose if you happen to bubble.

 

[yeezus]

I think folding AA KK is just a massive misplay. I understand about trying not to be bubble boy and what not , but scared poker is losing poker.

 

[Bob23bk]

So you were playing scared poker because you paid for a BI you simply can't afford. DON'T DO THIS!!! Stick to games within your BR or you will end up a losing player in the long run.

Hindsight is 20/20, and obviously I knew better... The problem is I'm working my way up from nothing (freeroll to bankroll) so there weren't any tourneys offered in my buy-in range. I've read many times that one of the greatest things you can do to grow in poker is to put yourself in uncomfortable situations... You guys can't see it yet, but maybe my unorthodox plays (in the beginning!) will pay off. Don't discount a player simply because he uses tactics you disagree with, have we all forgotten Ungar's $50,000 10 high call?

 

[micalupagoo]

Hindsight is 20/20, and obviously I knew better... The problem is I'm working my way up from nothing (freeroll to bankroll) so there weren't any tourneys offered in my buy-in range. I've read many times that one of the greatest things you can do to grow in poker is to put yourself in uncomfortable situations... You guys can't see it yet, but maybe my unorthodox plays (in the beginning!) will pay off. Don't discount a player simply because he uses tactics you disagree with, have we all forgotten Ungar's $50,000 10 high call?

Ive went from zero to (partial) hero on so many sites,
Ive taken the $1k bankrolls and turned them back into nothing too many times too
Id still allin JJ or AT on the bub if I think I could steal blinds or be called by weaker, I wont always win, but...
(Id shove way weaker too)
Im currently playing way out of bankroll again (after my last nice win)
Im playing $27KO mtts on a $600 and dropping roll,(should stay at the $5 games)
I play for fun, and I know one day my real big cashout is coming,
Ive put in insane time and volume, even some study
but theres a long term right way to play,
or you can play wrong, get lucky sometimes but wonder why you cant build a roll

I do understand where you are coming from, but dont play mtts without a decent roll, unless you want to keep starting from scratch
(no stts where you play?)

gl with whatever you decide to do

 

[Bob23bk]

I do understand where you are coming from, but dont play mtts without a decent roll, unless you want to keep starting from scratch

I've learned this already and I'm thankful the lesson came from free(roll) money and VERY early on

My graph stays flat between tourneys cause I'd only played freerolls... I had been running amazingly well, shipping 4/45 freerolls (including a 1st place finish!) where only the top 10 places are paid in an avg field of over 600! (Seriously, top 10 out of 600+ players 4/45 times?! I know variance was on my side, but there was some skill involved lol) Tourneys 47 and 48 I decided to punt and make my dream a reality much quicker. Please see end of graph if you want to know how that turned out :rofl:

I have a little over 200 tourneys in my graph now, but I'll save that for future reveals

(no stts where you play?)

I'm on ACR, and was quite amazed myself when I figured out they don't offer any super-micro STT! The lowest they have available is $1.50, and I should have alot more in roll than I do now before going to that level... They have a .10 $100 GTD daily, and when the stars align so that I'm free during that time-slot I'd like to get into those. I wish they offered .10, .25, or even .50 SNG. They had .10 3-max hypers (winner takes all, .19 profit for 1st) for awhile and I was doing pretty decent in those (even though the variance is about as ridiculous as MTT due to shovefests, and the fees were insane vs buyin/prize) until they magically disappeared after I'd only played a handful

gl with whatever you decide to do

Thanks, not sure why some of the people here are hating. Need more empathic people like yourself in my thread

Here's to your next bink, hope to see you in the big wins thread soon :beer:

 

[EvertonGirl]

Thanks, not sure why some of the people here are hating. Need more empathic people like yourself in my thread

Hey, I'm not hating!! Just think you were playing scared becuase of playing a higher BI than you should be. Are there not any decent BIs on ACR, I have only just joined on that site, so not too sure. I myself have got a BR from just playing freerolls so I know about playing from scratch. I learnt a good BRM from people on here, and I think it is important to keep to it.

GL @ the tables.

 

[arizoney]

yup i see the majority reflects on go for the win. but really if your short stacked and close to bubble hasnt that train already left the station. but i do understand the thought here and agree on the most part. every situation of close to bubble with short stack it will have a number of different factors to consider like chip stacks and there location to your seat of other players. opportunity to make plays for a positive ev toward these people which most people that use huds can see by the stats. this can help but watch out for all this advise is like a double edged sword. to get in the position of a short stack at this point is terrible but it happens to all of us. one main thing i must say positive roi for any tournament is better than a negative one. most of the time a min cash means you still have two buyins for that tourney. so the main thing is not to be short stacked before the bubble and to play accordingly for this strategy which sometimes is not possible. "Heres a good one lmao so remember now if your close to the bubble with a short stack throw away those chippies and find another tourney to donate to" excuse me but think about it!!!!

 

[Bob23bk]

Hey, I'm not hating!!

Honestly, 'hating' wasn't the right word but you catch my drift. I'm a very sarcastic person, please don't get offended and feel free to keep me in check when we meet again on the board! Also, it wasn't directed at you... I don't name'n'shame, but even if I did I don't think I could quote a true 'hater' in this thread

you were playing scared becuase of playing a higher BI than you should be.

I agree, but I still believe it was the right move given the circumstances (lowest tourney available was a large portion of BR)

Are there not any decent BIs on ACR

The lowest they have available is $1.50

I myself have got a BR from just playing freerolls so I know about playing from scratch. I learnt a good BRM from people on here, and I think it is important to keep to it.

I envy your success, and hope to achieve the same (or better)! I have also learned so much about BRM and countless other topics from CC, and this is only the beginning... Just think, someday we will look back and laugh at how 'good' we thought we were :rofl:

GL @ the tables

Thank you so much, sending positive variance in your direction as well! :canabis:

 

[Becky Eubanks]

I shove with the AA and if I lose I went down swinging

 

[spazdm]

I think u made the right play...though i doubt i could have done it. Because you made it to the money which is what matters most, and any bluffer with a weak hand could have caught something and takin you out. Tough choice but great play dude

 

[CactusCat]

The OP is looking for validation for his decision, but sometimes there is no way to sugarcoat it. I came from freeroll money and making those calls led to me busting and I suppose that delayed building a playable bankroll. But only if you take a short-term view of things. In reality they were mathematically correct calls and thus were profitable and one of the reasons I can buy in at least at $5NL comfortably.

And that's something every poker player should have the comfort of knowing. That I may not be able to outplay Phil Ivey or call down a bluff with jack high, but at least I can make the right decision and simply call/shove with AA <10 bb's.

If you bubble, shrug it off. On the contrary to your concern, you're throwing away money by folding.

If the mincash was the exact amount you owed to the mob and the deadline was tomorrow, or it's the amount to pay for the bail of a family member who landed himself in jail, that's the only situation where you have a real decision on your hands.

Unless you are facing exigent circumstances like the above, keep the eye on the long view.

 

[Bob23bk]

If the mincash was the exact amount you owed to the mob and the deadline was tomorrow

Ey calm down Jimmy, I told you I'd get you the money alright?? :dontknow:

I may not be able to outplay Phil Ivey or call down a bluff with jack high, but at least I can make the right decision and simply call/shove with AA <10 bb's.

I'd donate to Phil just for the experience, and I've added a 'player note' so don't be surprised if you catch me bluffing hard against you with high :rofl:

I don't like the AA AI call here (even with guaranteed edge) due to 2 factors: the bubble, and we are OOP. How does position have anything to do with all-in, right? If I shove into BB with AA and he calls, it's most likely because he thinks I'm bluffing or he has a 'decent heads-up hand' (lower end of his range). We're late in the tourney, so he's a strong player (or slight chance of a luckbox :joyman: ) that will assume you're shoving to blind steal because you're <10BB, thus pinning you on the lower end of your range and falling into your trap. If someone in early-mid position who is not short-stacked shoves, they're most likely not bluffing and have a very strong hand... I'd much rather face a mediocre hand with AA on my terms than bubble on a bad beat vs a lower PP (much higher probability)

“ When you hunt, let the game come to you. ”

" If you are the anvil, be patient. If you are the hammer; strike. ”

“ When you compromise, you lose. When you seem to have compromise, you have taken a step towards winning. ”

I can buy in at least at $5NL comfortably.

OK, I was just kidding when I said I'd bluff high against you... I can't even afford a seat at your table.

OP is looking for validation for his decision, but sometimes there is no way to sugarcoat it.

I got validation that I made the correct decision when my graph moved upwards as I cashed for more than min

“ After a victory, sharpen your knife. ”

I'm looking for other's POV so I can improve future decision-making (you might mention factors I hadn't considered) and I appreciate you (and everyone else who posted and disagrees with me) sharing criticism! No sugarcoating necessary, I actually enjoy the forthrightness. :icon_thum

“ Good medicine is always bitter. ”

I came from freeroll money and making those calls led to me busting and I suppose that delayed building a playable bankroll. But only if you take a short-term view of things. In reality they were mathematically correct calls and thus were profitable
...
On the contrary to your concern, you're throwing away money by folding.
...
keep the eye on the long view.
...
If you bubble, shrug it off.

If I bubble and miss the money, there is no bankroll and thus no long-term to be considered. I will admit I see your point, and you guys almost had me convinced... Today on a new site I bubbled due to a mathematically correct call :argh: If you judge yourself by how well you play 'perfect poker' ('textbook poker', 'ABC poker', or whatever you want to call it) that's one thing... I'll be over here judging my success by my profits (IE: how any 'regular' non-poker-player would judge you as a 'poker player') and playing accordingly :deal:

I've got to go back to the Ungar example mentioned previously one more time lol...

Matloubi's play here is effective and will work possibly 90% of the time or more, except that this time he came across a worthy opponent.

Both players made the right decision but one ended up $50,000 richer. For once it wasn't variance that decided the outcome: Stuey was able to rationalize everything covered in this thread so far (and more!) so perfectly that he calls the all-in shove in only a few seconds while holding 10 high! Not only that, he says "You've either got 4-5 or 5-6, I call." and is 100% accurate in reading his opponent's 54o! This is why I am here having this discussion with you, so that we can grasp a concept so much deeper than anything we have read before.

“ Fortune is on the side of the strong. ”

 

[beger80]

AA is the only hand I don't fold, all others I fold to ITM then I can "Play for the win" because the difference between 5 and 10.5 BBs is not going to effect my P/F range after the bubble pops. Take advantage of me on the bubble if you may but after the pop I'll be pushing so wide to chip up or cash out. Especially if I just lost a cooler a few hands before this situation, ah, if that was the case maybe I could fold AA to make myself feel like I deserved it.

Side note: was it just raised or was it 3bet?

 

[Bob23bk]

Take advantage of me on the bubble if you may but after the pop I'll be pushing so wide to chip up or cash out.

This is why I think folding AA was the right move for once! Like I said in my last post, I'll obviously be up against another strong hand... So even though I'm ahead here do we want to risk a guaranteed cash for a shot at a slightly better cash (or bubbling after 3 hours!)?

Side note: was it just raised or was it 3bet?

I said table folds to C/O, who 3 bets. :stupid: I mean to say C/O raises 3x BB, my mistake and good catch My point is calling isn't an option here cause you're going to end up all-in so you may as well shove knowing he's going to call. By holding on to my last 4 bigs I ended up cashing in a higher tier than min anyways because once the bubble popped people were going AI left and right!