Variable in Poker no one talks about regarding villain draws?



Rising Star
Hey Everyone,

So... I just got done playing a 9 man sit n go and got felted in 3rd with flopping set of 3's on a 3 4 5 rainbow board, went all in vs. villain who pushed first with A6s and hit the 7 on the turn completing his straight.

Now I am a 75% favorite (roughly) to win here as we know. But something I have been thinking of is if you know someone is shoving with a open ender/flush draw, doesn't it usually not matter whether you have High pair, Two Pair, or a set... if the draw gets their you lose regardless.

Now ICM is a cool hidden sort of variable, should there be another sort of variable affecting long term EV in these situations when you know villain is 25-33% on a draw?

The reason I say this is, is going off of winning these situations 2/3 times, say if you have 1,000 chips and hold the first time stacking off your opponent you get 2,000 chips. If you do so again the 2nd time you get 4,000 (granted your opponent has equal chips as tourney goes on). But if they stack off the third time 4000 and you lose your 4000 you are left with zero. (This being against a flush draw)

I know you can't play scared poker but is there something I am missing here? Maybe this just says why going All-In first you get the added value of fold equity which is maybe something of high value I am missing out on to get those draws to fold in the first place?

Thoughts appreciated! :)


Op, you can't thing that you will win first and second and lose third, it doesn't work like that. You are as likely to lose first and win second and third, which obviously won't happen, since you lost first one. The way you should think about it, is that you on average will win percent of the pot based on you equity. So when you go allin and 66% in a 1000 chips pot, then on average you will be winning 660$.

The main mistake in your logic is that villains have infinite chips and you have limited chips. if you win two all ins, the third all in will be only for the fraction of your stack.
This Fish Chums

This Fish Chums

I think you need to look into Pot odds some because that never came up in your description. For instanced, let's say you knew for a fact you were 75% to win. If the pot was 1000 chips and you had to put in another 150,000 to make the call you are not getting enough pot odds to make the call. Obviously that's an exaggerated example, but demonstrates that if the pot odds are not in your favor you should be folding that situation.

Secondly you need to consider what the opponent could be shoving with. If the board is 3,4,5 and they shove first did you stop to think they could be playing A2? Or what about 55? If you did not stop to consider what the opponent had then that is your biggest problem, even bigger than pot odds.