J
joeyvegasboi
Rising Star
Bronze Level
Hey Everyone,
So... I just got done playing a 9 man sit n go and got felted in 3rd with flopping set of 3's on a 3 4 5 rainbow board, went all in vs. villain who pushed first with A6s and hit the 7 on the turn completing his straight.
Now I am a 75% favorite (roughly) to win here as we know. But something I have been thinking of is if you know someone is shoving with a open ender/flush draw, doesn't it usually not matter whether you have High pair, Two Pair, or a set... if the draw gets their you lose regardless.
Now ICM is a cool hidden sort of variable, should there be another sort of variable affecting long term EV in these situations when you know villain is 25-33% on a draw?
The reason I say this is, is going off of winning these situations 2/3 times, say if you have 1,000 chips and hold the first time stacking off your opponent you get 2,000 chips. If you do so again the 2nd time you get 4,000 (granted your opponent has equal chips as tourney goes on). But if they stack off the third time 4000 and you lose your 4000 you are left with zero. (This being against a flush draw)
I know you can't play scared poker but is there something I am missing here? Maybe this just says why going All-In first you get the added value of fold equity which is maybe something of high value I am missing out on to get those draws to fold in the first place?
Thoughts appreciated!
So... I just got done playing a 9 man sit n go and got felted in 3rd with flopping set of 3's on a 3 4 5 rainbow board, went all in vs. villain who pushed first with A6s and hit the 7 on the turn completing his straight.
Now I am a 75% favorite (roughly) to win here as we know. But something I have been thinking of is if you know someone is shoving with a open ender/flush draw, doesn't it usually not matter whether you have High pair, Two Pair, or a set... if the draw gets their you lose regardless.
Now ICM is a cool hidden sort of variable, should there be another sort of variable affecting long term EV in these situations when you know villain is 25-33% on a draw?
The reason I say this is, is going off of winning these situations 2/3 times, say if you have 1,000 chips and hold the first time stacking off your opponent you get 2,000 chips. If you do so again the 2nd time you get 4,000 (granted your opponent has equal chips as tourney goes on). But if they stack off the third time 4000 and you lose your 4000 you are left with zero. (This being against a flush draw)
I know you can't play scared poker but is there something I am missing here? Maybe this just says why going All-In first you get the added value of fold equity which is maybe something of high value I am missing out on to get those draws to fold in the first place?
Thoughts appreciated!