O
OniGamer
Enthusiast
Silver Level
With the size of his stack and the blinds where they are at I would call that every time. Now, if he had close to the same stack as me, or if the blinds were lower and he has been playing tight, then I would think about letting it go.
At best he is going to have a lower pair, worst he has a higher pair, more commonly he is going to have over cards which was the case here.
At best he is going to have a lower pair, worst he has a higher pair, more commonly he is going to have over cards which was the case here.
K
kwhilborn
Enthusiast
Silver Level
2 schools of thought.
a) We are playing to be ITM, so losing before cash sucks and might make me fold my bullets (NEVER) before going all in just before pay dirt.
So it is smart to fold good hands if you think you will get paid depending on your bankroll.
b) Your tens were a better hand. A pair of 2's would also be a better hand than AK,KQ,QJ, etc. This type of hand .. pair vs overcards is called a "race" and it is 51% in favor of the pairs.
so I would bet a pair of 2's against a KQ anytime, anywhere (except a few positions before you're ITM.)
Another thing you needed to worry about and might have made it a bad call so close to pay dirt is that it could have been AA,KK,QQ,JJ. EEEP!
Even an Ace-rag is a better hand than KQ because they stand a chance of not hitting any of their cards, PLUS add your odds of hitting an ACE which brings ACE-RAG better than your 10's at about 54%
You made the wrong call in my opinion because you lost your payday, I am very tight at pay dirt.
a) We are playing to be ITM, so losing before cash sucks and might make me fold my bullets (NEVER) before going all in just before pay dirt.
So it is smart to fold good hands if you think you will get paid depending on your bankroll.
b) Your tens were a better hand. A pair of 2's would also be a better hand than AK,KQ,QJ, etc. This type of hand .. pair vs overcards is called a "race" and it is 51% in favor of the pairs.
so I would bet a pair of 2's against a KQ anytime, anywhere (except a few positions before you're ITM.)
Another thing you needed to worry about and might have made it a bad call so close to pay dirt is that it could have been AA,KK,QQ,JJ. EEEP!
Even an Ace-rag is a better hand than KQ because they stand a chance of not hitting any of their cards, PLUS add your odds of hitting an ACE which brings ACE-RAG better than your 10's at about 54%
You made the wrong call in my opinion because you lost your payday, I am very tight at pay dirt.
Aleksei
Legend
Silver Level
It would be a bit stupid to bet 22 against anything but the widest range, given that 22 is dominated by a higher pp, meaning... any other pp, at all, whatsoever. 22 is actually +EV only against opponents with a VPIP of 95% or more. I don't think even the average play money player has a VPIP that high...
Lucothefish
Visionary
Silver Level
Ace rag is better than TT: No, it sucks. It's frequently dominated vs an opponent's range whereas TT isn't (JJ+ only). You have to give your opponent a range, not a hand.
He made the wrong call because he lost: The actual outcome is irrelevant as long as you make the right decision. Go for the win and ignore the mincash, you don't play 3+ hours just to get your buy-in back.
K
kwhilborn
Enthusiast
Silver Level
@ Luko,
I am not an expert, however I have been playing for many years.
I was telling him the real odds of his hand.
YOU MISREAD MY POST. I SAID ACE-RAG WAS BETTER THAN KQ. I WOULD NEVER SAY IT BEAT A PAIR OF 10's as you say I did..
I hate Ace-Rag people who shove every ace they land, but the fact is an ACE-TWO (ace-rag) has a 55% chance of winning over a suited KQ, and even more so against non suited.
I am not making that statistic up?
Also 2-2 is a better hand than KQ with a 53% chance of winning. I did not make that up either.
The OP was wondering what hands was more deserving.
It is obvious that any wrong call is the wrong call if it gets you kicked out of the game, that is just stating the obvious.
a few places before ITM people start playing tighter and smaller pots try to avoid playing. I think pushing all-in with 10-10 is a good move, but calling with a 10-10 would be (WAS) a bad move. This innate tightness about the bubble is another good reason to avoid calling all-ins from deep stacks, although I myself have been chip leader and added a few thousand by taking advantage of scared players at this point. I push with KQ from a deep stacks is loose, but can get scared money.
You said something I agree with but it does not make sense.
I often tell my wife the quote you made "The outcome is irrelevant as long as you make the right decision". I am teaching her to play. I mean if she folds a 7h 2d preflop she made the right decision despite the fact the flop came up 772. She pre-folded a boat, but it was better form to fold a bad hand and so she did the right thing. I suppose you can argue that, but my point is made.
I agree that I was likely wrong about wanting to hold off until ITM, but I have lost some large buy ins on my transition to higher stakes poker and has made me play more scared, but we are talking a few positions before pay dirt and not the entire tourney. Often ITM means 1.5 to 2+ times the buy in so you can play the tournament a few more times if you lose. I still think if I was a few positions off the bubble I'd have folded an all-in call with 10-10, but like I also said it depends on his bankroll and what is at stake. There are always other factors like opponents style and aggressiveness.
Statistically though I'd play Ace-rag or a pair of 2's over suited KQ anytime. The math will always work out the same.
I am not an expert, however I have been playing for many years.
I was telling him the real odds of his hand.
YOU MISREAD MY POST. I SAID ACE-RAG WAS BETTER THAN KQ. I WOULD NEVER SAY IT BEAT A PAIR OF 10's as you say I did..
I hate Ace-Rag people who shove every ace they land, but the fact is an ACE-TWO (ace-rag) has a 55% chance of winning over a suited KQ, and even more so against non suited.
I am not making that statistic up?
Also 2-2 is a better hand than KQ with a 53% chance of winning. I did not make that up either.
The OP was wondering what hands was more deserving.
It is obvious that any wrong call is the wrong call if it gets you kicked out of the game, that is just stating the obvious.
a few places before ITM people start playing tighter and smaller pots try to avoid playing. I think pushing all-in with 10-10 is a good move, but calling with a 10-10 would be (WAS) a bad move. This innate tightness about the bubble is another good reason to avoid calling all-ins from deep stacks, although I myself have been chip leader and added a few thousand by taking advantage of scared players at this point. I push with KQ from a deep stacks is loose, but can get scared money.
You said something I agree with but it does not make sense.
I often tell my wife the quote you made "The outcome is irrelevant as long as you make the right decision". I am teaching her to play. I mean if she folds a 7h 2d preflop she made the right decision despite the fact the flop came up 772. She pre-folded a boat, but it was better form to fold a bad hand and so she did the right thing. I suppose you can argue that, but my point is made.
I agree that I was likely wrong about wanting to hold off until ITM, but I have lost some large buy ins on my transition to higher stakes poker and has made me play more scared, but we are talking a few positions before pay dirt and not the entire tourney. Often ITM means 1.5 to 2+ times the buy in so you can play the tournament a few more times if you lose. I still think if I was a few positions off the bubble I'd have folded an all-in call with 10-10, but like I also said it depends on his bankroll and what is at stake. There are always other factors like opponents style and aggressiveness.
Statistically though I'd play Ace-rag or a pair of 2's over suited KQ anytime. The math will always work out the same.
Last edited:
duggs
Killing me softly
Silver Level
no no no no no no. KQo has far more equity v calling ranges than 22/A2o even is it is a slight dog v those exact hands. KQo has greater equity than 22/A2o against a range of 55+ A7+ or whatever. more importantly as ranges widen KQo actually manages to dominate some hands where as it is much harder for 22/A2o to dominate anything.
Lucothefish
Visionary
Silver Level
I must have misread this bit then:
I didn't say Ax beat TT either, I said TT does way better against a villain's range.
Also as duggs said, KQ is far more playable against a range than low PPs or Ax.
If you're scared enough to care about a mincash you need to look at bankroll management. A single first place will make up for a dozen mincashes and the bubble is a great time for the fearless to really chip up.
K
kwhilborn
Enthusiast
Silver Level
I used low PP's as an extreme example.
The OP shoved at the bubble with a pair of tens, and was met by a Chip Leader who met with a KQ. The KQ then went on to river a boat.
The OP seems discouraged about his play.
The OP did not sit out at the bubble and wait for ITM, and played for first place.
I am saying:
a) Shoving with a 10-10 is a good move but scary and perhaps costly if you go out before the bubble. I have been corrected by Luco that sittig out at the edge of the bubble is bad form, but I've been burnt there a few times recently.
b) Calling with a 10-10 would be bad.
c) I also say pushing with a KQ by a chipleader in tight play is a good move, but calling a big push during tight play is not.
The blinds would be very high by the bubble, so that is also in favor of the KQ call, but still think it was wrong.
I have won first place in hundreds of lower level tourneys but I am open to learning and did not understand Duggs post.
@DUGGS,
I do not understand what you mean by Equity against a range, but would like to understand. I thought equity was only the hands percentage of winning preflop. I also do not understand what you mean by range? Are we talking overall hand possibilities versus KQ? I am moving up in stakes as I am getting free tickets (kinda sorta) to larger games and need to understand this way of thought.
Edit: I looked at it more and my understanding is the KQ hand equity is versus all possible hands. I suppose I do think this way without using those terms as we always consider our starting hand vs the field.
The OP shoved at the bubble with a pair of tens, and was met by a Chip Leader who met with a KQ. The KQ then went on to river a boat.
The OP seems discouraged about his play.
The OP did not sit out at the bubble and wait for ITM, and played for first place.
I am saying:
a) Shoving with a 10-10 is a good move but scary and perhaps costly if you go out before the bubble. I have been corrected by Luco that sittig out at the edge of the bubble is bad form, but I've been burnt there a few times recently.
b) Calling with a 10-10 would be bad.
c) I also say pushing with a KQ by a chipleader in tight play is a good move, but calling a big push during tight play is not.
The blinds would be very high by the bubble, so that is also in favor of the KQ call, but still think it was wrong.
I have won first place in hundreds of lower level tourneys but I am open to learning and did not understand Duggs post.
@DUGGS,
I do not understand what you mean by Equity against a range, but would like to understand. I thought equity was only the hands percentage of winning preflop. I also do not understand what you mean by range? Are we talking overall hand possibilities versus KQ? I am moving up in stakes as I am getting free tickets (kinda sorta) to larger games and need to understand this way of thought.
Edit: I looked at it more and my understanding is the KQ hand equity is versus all possible hands. I suppose I do think this way without using those terms as we always consider our starting hand vs the field.
Lucothefish
Visionary
Silver Level
The OP had 25bb in the BB and called the CO's 12bb push. He lost the hand but went on to cash anyway, although he didn't make the final table. I would say that neither the CO nor the OP made a bad play here.
Yes you're right, a range simply means all possible hands a villain could hold. As we progress through a hand we narrow their range based on their actions.
Bubble play is a single table thing and it's often fine and correct to fold big hands on the bubble of a STT because of the weird way the payouts work. But in a larger field MTT you kinda just need to ignore the bubble and play on
Yes you're right, a range simply means all possible hands a villain could hold. As we progress through a hand we narrow their range based on their actions.
Bubble play is a single table thing and it's often fine and correct to fold big hands on the bubble of a STT because of the weird way the payouts work. But in a larger field MTT you kinda just need to ignore the bubble and play on
IntenseHeat
Legend
Bronze Level
Bubble play is a single table thing and it's often fine and correct to fold big hands on the bubble of a STT because of the weird way the payouts work. But in a larger field MTT you kinda just need to ignore the bubble and play on
You just told the whole truth right there.
tignutz
Enthusiast
Silver Level
i was in this same situation the other night. I had KJ in the small blind and dealer went all in (we had equal stacks) and I called. He turns pocket tens and I miss the board. I think i made the right call even though it didnt go my way