Funnily enough I’ve accidentally late reg’d into tournaments and where I’ve been forced to play only my initially most solid hands I’ve often made the money and run pretty deep as a result as apposed to this event that I start and get overly creative. The more tables I play the less creative and more like a bot I end up playing like which I detest lol. A guy I play live with who is a nit lives by late entry, he is very consistent and is always withdrawing from his account, but his minted anyways and plays the $55 upwards mostly. Constantly min cashing and deep works out well over time. He $2.50/5 and $5/10 plays often over the week I’m aware of, he was always good to catch live cash being the complete opposite to me lol.... I excel live, not so great online alas... I just can’t leave the tables when I’m tearing it up and fall foul to coolers eventually more times than not. But just like i said I’m the opposite, i Robin Hood from live and donate online haha 🥴
Here, i made a rough model for a game with late registration, assuming that a nit is playing )))
Consider a turbo MTT played by a nit that only plays with a range of JJ+/AK, which corresponds to the probability of entering the hand P=40/1326
Let's also assume that the field is very aggressive and there are open-raises right in every hand, i.e. never freeplay from BB position ))
And at the start there is a 15BB stack. Table - 9-max. Ante 10%. And the hands are dealt synchronously (for the convenience of calculation), exactly 2 circles for each level of blinds.
This means that for the first level of stakes (2 rounds) the amount of chips spent on forced bets will be 2*(1+0.5+9*0.1)=4.8BB, and after raising the level of stakes (for example, from 50/100, ante 10, to 100/200, ante 20 ), for the next 2 rounds the same amount will be spent in the BB, but 2 times more in chips. Then, if in 36 hands he never get hands from that narrow range of ~ 3%, then in fact he will almost be devoured by the blinds ))
0.15BB will remain, because the level of bets after the 36th hand will immediately increase. And in the next hand, he will be in an auto-all-in and will most likely be eliminated in 1-2 hands. And you need to calculate the probability that this will happen.
Everything is precisely calculated through the Bernoulli formula:
p=C(36, 36)*(P^0)*(1-P)^36=(1-P)^36
p=(1-40/1326)^36=0.33 or 33%
The other 66% of the time we will get a shoving hand.
If when this hand comes, we will be bust out of the tournament in 33% of cases, and in 66% of cases we will double stack, then assuming that when doubling on average we will pass in ITM in 66% of cases, get this:
66%*0.66*0.66 ~ 30% ITM