Set over set set set on flop

[Branimir84]

I most likely would not fold and would be very sick to my stomach about it all, but I see most good players folding that.

Body reads at the felt and as eetenor broke down the hand, experienced players in that situation would mostly fold I wager.

 

[dlam]

Most players would not fold
I had straight over set or set at the flop once and lost with bottom set and felt I could fold either

 

[wyoming4paul]

A lot of great analysis here, that said, sometimes you just lose.

 

[fundiver199]

Typically I am not folding a set for 100BB or less, when no flush or straight is possible. However if there ever was a time to do it, it has to be a situation like this, because that flop action is just insane. It also matter, that it was an UTG open, because it mean, he should not have any hands, that flopped two pair or a draw. This mean, that by calling here, we are pretty much hoping, he is wildly overplaying AA or AK. Even so its really difficult to get away, and in real time I dont think, I could lay it down.

However I dont think, we even had to see a flop with this hand. If UTG open, and we are UTG+1, we can pretty much play a 3-bet or fold strategy. 88 is not a good candidate for 3-betting, since it has no relevant blockers and very bad equity and playability when called. So for me this would just be a fold. I know, many people want to call here to setmine because "LOL implied odds". But we have the entire table left to act after us, and if someone put in a 3-bet, we dont even get to see a flop.

 

[gustav197poker]

If you achieve the smallest set of the flop, the probability of losing with a higher set is 8%. That is, you will lose once every 12.5 times. Regards.

 

[gustav197poker]

Exact is 8.51063829% That is to say that you will lose once every 11.75 times from the push from the flop.

 

[Bluffzone68]

In the scenario that it played out after the flop,
I would say 99% of poker players would have called like you did.
In theory, whatever is said but when you are sitting there with your heart thumping like crazy, eager to pull all the chips your way with that set, you don't see yourself folding anywhere.

So what do we make of it, just chill and get over it.

But to analyze your hand with percentage doesn't work in reality.

 

[theANMATOR]

Fold, you need to put players on range. (UTG opens and cbet flop vs two players)

Huh? Fold - really, that is impressive.
Yeah UTG range includes A/K which is what I'd put him on.

It is basically impossible to fold a set on the flop with the board is that with a rainbow. Also that early in the tournament in a small stakes tournament, you're usually good. As a player that plays at Foxwoods regularly, the odds of hitting 3 sets is near impossible. With the Foxwoods structure of unlimited re-buys too, I would just take it on the chin and say good hand, and buy back in .

Scenario Probability Odds If you have a pair, you hit a set (trips) on the flop 11.7551% 1:8 Being dealt a pair and flopping a set 0.6915% 1:144 If two players have pair, both flop a set 1.0176% 1:97 Heads-up both players are dealt a pair and flop a set 0.0024% 1:42,305 Two players at a 6-max-table are dealt a pair and both flop a set 0.0355% 1:2,819 Two players at a full ring table are dealt a pair and both flop a set 0.0851% 1:1,174 Three players at a 3-max-table are dealt and pair and all three flop a set 0.0000% 1:13,960,821 Three players at a 6-max-table are dealt and pair and all three flop a set 0.0001% 1:698,040 Three players at a full ring table are dealt and pair and all three flop a set 0.0006% 1:166,199

Agree - never folding here - just get it in, loose and rebuy. Nice hand. Don't fold sets - unless it's on the river and there are clear straight/flush boats on the board.

But my math is a little different than yours Dude - Odds of flopping a set is 11.8% x 3 players = 35.4%

I would be happy to reshove with a set on a rainbow flop.
UTG could have AA AK KQ KJ or Maybe QT and T9
not sure About HJ, but KQ KJ QT and T9 are also in his range that we beat.


take the cooler. I guess 98% would call in this spot and barely anyone would make the hero fold



you can't put him on a set and fold this Hand at the early stage without a read.
there are a lot of Hands we beat while there are only 2 Hands we lose to. chances that we are up against both of those 2 are less than 0.01%.



with such Deep stacks I would not put HJ on AA-TT. he would 3bet most of the time with those Hands in Position. that's why I would not put him on a set.
the 4x open from UTG is usally a premium like AA-JJ and AK/AQ.
the Action on the flop confirms it that he has AA AK or the rare case that he hit a better set than us. there are a lot of Hands HJ might fold after 2 People shoving, so his reraise could also be a semibluff with a OESD...

Agree without reads OR definitive history with player (online) just can't put other players hitting a set as well.
The sign of strength from both could simply be top pair middle pair top kickers - which give them straights possible as well with 2 to come. So hard - I'm never folding - though I'm starting to think I might be a bit of a station - but that isn't necessarily such a bad thing at my buyin/level.

 

[Criminal Bizzy]

Fold, you need to put players on range. (UTG opens and cbet flop vs two players)

You wouldn't call the cbet? Honestly I would have called the cbet with the plan to analayze on the turn. Once that raise goes in and then a re-raise I might reconsider my hand and fold.

 

[wallyworld127]

NATURE OF TURNEY my friend

One of the reasons people preach bankroll management is because if situations like this. not putting your money in {unless you have a lot of play time with this person at high stakes and you can spot out this set over set}. your point in a tourney is to amass chips. and basically if you are afraid to do that here you are more than likely playing out of your bankroll.... not that being said there are exceptions to this.. one is a satellite bubble where you have enough chips you ARE goon to make the ticket regardless {that goes for aces as well) AND another is if you can read that maybe one of them as a flush draw and the other has a straight draw and it is is the very start and maybe your dont have another bullet {bankroll management again}. however you can never fully know that is what is going on and also even then if you aren't practicing good bankroll management and this is way to big for you, you should probably still be putting it in.

 

[marvbake]

UTG bettor can have AA there, KK, AK, and JJ. Maybe even KJ, but probably not. AA and AK seems unlikely because it was such a small raise and you still have alot of your stack left behind. If he had AA or AK, he can easily put the raiser on 88 and KJ easily. JJ is also a possibility since alot of ppl play that hand weirdly. Or QT or T9. But it was also a small raise though so it might feel his hand was misrepped.
You're beaten by JJ and KK.
You beat AK, AA, QT, and T9.

QT and T9 seem unlikely here. So there's only 2 hands out of 4 that you beat. Now you have to ask yourself is your opponent 3 bet shoving AK and AA there on flop. If you think so, then call. 50/50 and I'm sure you're getting those pot odds to call. Even if it's AA, KK, and JJ in his range you're still beating 1/3 of his range or about 2:1 pot odds. Take the pot odds into account and call accordingly.

IF you believe there's no way he's shoving AA or AK there, then fold. It's entirely up to you. Don't be too attached to the hand. Be honestly on how you objectively feel.

 

[dorynel7]

You cannot assume that the opponent has collected set on the flop.