Re: shove or live to fight another day?

[omeimaster]

Re: shove or live to fight another day?

Hello Guys:

I got booted last night from a tournament only a few spots away from the final table. I can't decide if I made the right call, so I figured I'd solicit opinions.

Situation:

12 players left with 9 making the final table. Pot between me (button), P1 (BB), and P2 (UTG). All of us have similar stack sizes occupying 5, 6, and 7th of 12 (there were 2 dominating chip leaders).

P2 limps. Folds to me with 78 suited, I raise 3X BB. SB folds and BB raises 5X my raise (so we are now at 15BB). P2 calls 3-bet.

By this point, we played for a long while and I felt I had a pretty good read on the situation. I had them on AK or AQ (potentially even duplicate cards), so I felt good about my odds. I shove all-in and both players call.

I was right. AK and AQ unsuited versus my 78 suited. P1 and P2 ended up chopping the pot thanks to 44TT two-pair board. I left wondering if I should have folded and live to fight another day.

Your thoughts?

 

[ph_il]

preflop, i'd rather just limp in on the button this close to the final table and (if i'm reading correctly) you still have 30 bbs in your stack at the start of the hand. 78s is a decent hand to play in position, but you would rather call a small preflop bet than face a large 3bet in a critical spot like this.

your shove is terrible since you a) have no fold equity and b) you're never ahead with 78s here. do you think your opponents are 3betting and limp/calling with 45s or 56s in this spot? never. you did put them on ak/aq and you do have ~equal equity with ak to win in this spot, but the problem is putting players on specific hands. even though you guess correctly, there are a lot of hands they could have that do the same thing. does kk or aa 3bet in the bb? yes. can a had like j10s, 99 limp utg? of course. so, it's not about specific hands your opponents have, but what ranges do they have.

lets say we give utg a limp/call range of

• 22-99, a5s, a10s-ajs, aqo, 98s-kqs, q10s, k10s, kjs.

and lets give bb a 3bet range of

• 99+, a10s+, aqo, kqs.

you only have 23.8% equity and you're shoving that with 0 fold equity. so, the only way to win for your hand to hit and hold, which it isn't ~75% of the time. do

so, in spots like this, do your best to avoid unnecessary marginal or -ev spots. there is nothing wrong with just folding 78s in this spot when you're close the final table. and if you need/want to play it, these hands do better post flop than preflop, so get in as cheap as possible.

as played, fold to the 3bet after utg flat calls it.

 

[300HPGOD]

Not sure how deep you were to start the hand which makes a big difference for how to analyze this but with the information given, I am never getting it in here with 87 suited with 12 left when I am in 7th place. The BB is trying to tell you that they are strong when they raise as large as they do. Yes it may mean that they do want to see a flop but I would put their range ahead of 87 suited when they do this. UTG is a little hard to read as I would not be sure what to make of a limp call to a cold 3 bet that is so large but everything would be screaming to me that I am beat here and since we go all in there is no positional advantage being in the button.

You mention that they might have dups meaning both have AK but even if that is the case you are even money to win or lose. pot odds wise thats great since we are even to triple up but for survival purposes thats a flip. Mind you that is best case scenario. There could easily be a pocket pair in there or you could be going against 3 overcards as you were and are a dog. Either way you would need to hit something since your hand is not made. I dont agree with the jam as even if everything is lined up for you, you are still being felted half the time.

 

[madbeeet]

In my observation, the game slows down towards the final table as money is pressing on everyone. And the result very often develops in favor of those who are not afraid to take risks and act actively, stealing stacks and placing wabanks at approximately equal chances. And right or wrong, you have to understand yourself. Gin and poker is such a thing where there is no right answer, there is only a choice and its consequences)

 

[DougPkrMonsta]

Not a fan - I would limp in position and then fold to the raise.

Iso-ing 3X after a limp is not big enough to take down the pot ever, so raise at least 3.5X plus 1BB per limper.

As played, folding to a re-raise and a call without question.

Being 'right' this time isn't a good enough justification - you are still behind, could easily be really smashed by an over-pair here and you are NEVER ahead.

I like the idea of going for a big stack on the final table versus just getting there (as the real money is in top 3 spots), but this isn't close to the right way to do it.

Re-raise loose players and put pressure on in marginal spots. People who play tight enough for you peg them to AK and AQ are playing super predictably.

Trust yourself to take advantage of your reads and put them in difficult positions instead of trying to get tight players to fold their premium hands before the flop you should have better results.

Good luck!

 

[dannystanks]

I always have a red flag go off when utg player limps. To me that smells strong. Im ok with a raise here like you did. Mostly I am folding I think. When the big blind re-raises you he needs to be strong because he is out of position with two players he is now trying to push out. Utg calls so that should tell you that you are dead to the re-raise or dead to the utg. I’m for sure folding with that action and then looking for a better spot. Good luck on your next tournament!