Overplaying AK?

[amitmanchanda]

Background: I recently saw a hand of high-stakes poker including Tom Dwan where someone lost 1.5 Million USD with AK. That made me think, that despite all the information available on the net and coaching, people are still overplaying AK and made me write on this. This article is about how to play AK when you have more than 20 blinds, anything less than, is a fair shove until and unless you are on the bubble (we will discuss this in another article)

Detail: AK suited or non-suited is one of the Top 10 hands in any poker book or chart and very often, including me, people usually overplayed it.

Pre-flop is certainly a hand with which you can open from any position, in fact, 3 bet from middle or late positions too. However, it’s the 4-bet which will bring you trouble more often than you think. 1.5 million pot which I mentioned above is the hand where the loser 4 bet from button. I personally, based on my experience, will not do it because it will lay a foundation for big loss on the next betting rounds. Consider this, if you open, someone 3 bet you, what are the possible hands you will be ahead of AQ, AJ and consider how many hands he may be ahead of you, AA, KK at least and flipping with QQ, JJ, 10 in fact any pocket pair, opponent will have 2-3% edge. So, there are only 2 hands where you will be genuinely ahead, 2 hands where you will be well behind, and there will be 10 hands where you will be flipping with a slight disadvantage.

So, the question is do you want to flip? I know, I don’t!

Poker is about finding certainty out of all uncertainty, so my idea is to hit the flop first then look for value because on a rainbow flop if you don’t hit, you just have an Ace high. Is it worth risking your tournament life or your whole stack with Ace high? I guess not. However, if you 4 bet and already made a pot super heavy, you will tend to 3-barrel and lose more often.

Post Flop: you hit the flop: early positions, if you hit the flop, 1-3 players behind and dry flop, you can check to trap or bet, if more than 1-3 players definitely raise to shorten the field, you don’t people to catch two pairs or set. Late positions, if you hit the flop, raise or re-raise to hold the aggressive advantage.

You don’t hit flop: Early position or late position, check call if it’s less than 40% pot size bet, if more than 40%-fold because Ace High is not worth risking your stack. Consider the pot size here, if you had ballooned the pot with 4 bet pre-flop, it would have been extremely difficult for you to let go of the pot here.

Turn: if you are still in the pot, and still haven’t hit anything, check fold. If you are on a Broadway or flush draw check your pot odds and play accordingly.

River: if you hit your ace or king, and the other player had been doing pot control bets on flop and turn, you might have the best hand but I will still not recommend a re-raise here as the other player will fold if he can’t bet ace or king or will re-raise as he was waiting for you to catch your card so he can get max value for his/her two pairs or set.

Conclusion: AK will turn out to be Ace high by the end at the river more often than you expect and far less likely to be a winner. Don’t play big slick like pocket rockets or cowboys with more than 20 blinds in your stacks and we all know even they are not immune to loss.

 

[Falzee]

I have had little or no success with AK. Depending on the current bet, I may play a round or 2 if the stakes aren't too high, but usually I'll fold that hand.

 

[canbora]

Here's the thing. I disagree. I come from the older School of it being a drawing hand and everyone saying things like this, it's a drawing hand and everyone over plays it....

I'm also learning, because I'm trying to be an older dog lewrning newer tricks.... Learning the new GTO thing where it's not only the top 10 it's basically in the top four according to the GTO chart.

With all that being said I've done it both ways even recently with experiments. I'm here to say from my experience I fully agree with GTO. Because it's not even my opinion it's the results of what happened. But here's the thing you have to do it pre-flop in my opinion and my advice. You have to be aggressing, you have to take the play out of it meaning you have to go all in pre-flop.

Ace King has any other two random cards we have dominated. And it has any pair up to and including Queens in serious trouble. Even kings, while lesser it's still very much in danger. The only hand that completely dominates it is aces. And even then of course, you're still alive, most especially if it's suited.

And while I've heard about that million Dollar hand I don't know the circumstances. If you're extremely rich and a million dollars is nothing more than a common hand, one out of hundreds. Then it shouldn't matter to you and that's how you should be playing. The amount of money playing is irrelevant. A hand as a hand. The game has no memory or relevance as to how much money it's being played for. Doesn't matter if you're playing for popcorn and candy or if you're playing for a bazillion dollars. The deck is the deck, the the hand is the hand, and the game is the game.

Also I found in my experiments I would rather have ace king and pair the board versus an over pair because you're taking up a card and you're providing blockers. When you have a pair that's all you have. And you have lower odds to improve.

So if anything, I think having over pairs is overrated from my experience, most especially in cash games. When you're in tournaments and your short stacked, obviously it's a godsend. And if you get cracked you get cracked. But more than likely you'll get heads up and you'll double up.

Like stu Unger said, aces is for winning small pots and losing big ones.

 

[pentazepam]

When people barrel off with AK it's often to balance their range so they don't only do it with AA and KK in four, five or even sixth bet pot preflop.

If Wesly had AA and Tom Dwan was calling with QQ he would look stupid and lost the big pot (as he stated).

 

[kaynbergo]

So you can talk about any hand, even AA, it's the strongest hand in preflop, but if another player calls 26 different ones for some reason, and the flop turns out to be 626, then the chances of winning with AA drop significantly.

 

[amitmanchanda]

I have had little or no success with AK. Depending on the current bet, I may play a round or 2 if the stakes aren't too high, but usually I'll fold that hand.

I won't devalue AK that much but it's your choice, still a fairly good hand if the ace flops and you get lot of value from players with A and poor kicker. However, if someone 3 bet you, they will have two pairs at least if they are good. If they are loose, they are trying to scare you off by putting you on KK or QQ or any other lower pair, considering you opened pre flop and they flat call.

 

[amitmanchanda]

Here's the thing. I disagree. I come from the older School of it being a drawing hand and everyone saying things like this, it's a drawing hand and everyone over plays it....

I'm also learning, because I'm trying to be an older dog lewrning newer tricks.... Learning the new GTO thing where it's not only the top 10 it's basically in the top four according to the GTO chart.

With all that being said I've done it both ways even recently with experiments. I'm here to say from my experience I fully agree with GTO. Because it's not even my opinion it's the results of what happened. But here's the thing you have to do it pre-flop in my opinion and my advice. You have to be aggressing, you have to take the play out of it meaning you have to go all in pre-flop.

Ace King has any other two random cards we have dominated. And it has any pair up to and including Queens in serious trouble. Even kings, while lesser it's still very much in danger. The only hand that completely dominates it is aces. And even then of course, you're still alive, most especially if it's suited.

And while I've heard about that million Dollar hand I don't know the circumstances. If you're extremely rich and a million dollars is nothing more than a common hand, one out of hundreds. Then it shouldn't matter to you and that's how you should be playing. The amount of money playing is irrelevant. A hand as a hand. The game has no memory or relevance as to how much money it's being played for. Doesn't matter if you're playing for popcorn and candy or if you're playing for a bazillion dollars. The deck is the deck, the the hand is the hand, and the game is the game.

Also I found in my experiments I would rather have ace king and pair the board versus an over pair because you're taking up a card and you're providing blockers. When you have a pair that's all you have. And you have lower odds to improve.

So if anything, I think having over pairs is overrated from my experience, most especially in cash games. When you're in tournaments and your short stacked, obviously it's a godsend. And if you get cracked you get cracked. But more than likely you'll get heads up and you'll double up.

Like stu Unger said, aces is for winning small pots and losing big ones.

I read what you wrote, pre flop odds of AKs vs J10s of even same suit is 64% to 35%; and you might be surprised AKs vs 72o the odds are 70%-30%. So, in theoretical probability you will lose 3 out of 10 hands with AK after pre flop all in.

 

[amitmanchanda]

When people barrel off with AK it's often to balance their range so they don't only do it with AA and KK in four, five or even sixth bet pot preflop.

If Wesly had AA and Tom Dwan was calling with QQ he would look stupid and lost the big pot (as he stated).

In your experience of poker, which hand you had more often between AK and AA? Even if Wesley had AA, I do not think it was a wrong play from Dwan. because he beat so many other pairs as well.

 

[amitmanchanda]

So you can talk about any hand, even AA, it's the strongest hand in preflop, but if another player calls 26 different ones for some reason, and the flop turns out to be 626, then the chances of winning with AA drop significantly.

I agree but the probability of someone flopping two pairs is far less than flopping a pair. With AA, 62 hands will not beat you with one pair, right? As mentioned above AK vs 72, probability sis 70-30 but with AA vs 72, probability is 89-11

 

[canbora]

In your experience of poker, which hand you had more often between AK and AA? Even if Wesley had AA, I do not think it was a wrong play from Dwan. because he beat so many other pairs as well.

Yes those numbers of course are correct. But you're still winning seven out of 10. That's ahead. That's way way ahead. So you take your hand against a built range on average. So like somebody else said above it's done to balance.

You have a range as well as your opponent does. Also look at the numbers you just posted, Ace King versus 72, and AA versus 72... And subtract a difference. Remember you're still losing 11 times, that's 19 difference... And that's against aces. You're not always going to be against aces you have to figure other hands like Ace queen, king king, queen queen, Jack Jack.etc. that's what GTO does. It builds a range. Also again, keep in mind Fold equity. That's very very important.. you're not factoring that in your equation. You get in a raising match with somebody pre-flop and you go all in there's a good likelihood they're going to fold and you'll steal.

But like any good poker player I'm not suggesting that you blindly follow gto. And most especially since this topic is in the tournament category where you would deviate most of all.

So like if you're in the late stages of a tournament, and you're on the bubble or you're in the final table and n your battling against the different top places and you have multiple all ins and you look down at Ace king, well then yeah you may lay it down. It's not worth the risk of you being out and you know several people are going to be knocked out right now.

Everything is situational dependent.