Losing to garbage hands on the bubble

[yuriko oyama]

Yes I have experienced the same thing, in fact I kept record of the number of times it happened (losing to garbage with a monster hand) and in 17 straightMTT Tourneys I lost either on the bubble or just before the final table to junk hands...they call it variance...I don't know what to call it except ugly.

I think we should start calling this:
THE SONG OF THE MERMAID.

 

[yuriko oyama]

Thing is if you let your stack get really short even if your monster gets called & holds up you may still find yourself in the same position. As the bubble approaches & you find your stack dwindling one frequently finds the play of the table tightening, start loosing up your shoving range & looking for shoving opportunities while you have enough of a stack to make a difference. Passive table respond with aggressive play & all that. After all we are looking to go deep not just min cash, are we not?

I agree, but sometimes the least is the only hope we have left.

 

[yuriko oyama]

The fun starts right after the bubble) Low stakes players start going All In 😀

the struggle is to get there.

 

[yuriko oyama]

The problem is, that when you get very short, you lose your fold equity. If the player in BB, who is closing action, get a good enough price, then they are correct to call you with any two cards. And since all hands have equity preflop, you will regularly lose to, what you call "garbage" hands. The remedy is to loosen up your game, so you dont let your stack dwindle away just trying to make it into the money.

For instance if you have 12BB, and it folds to you in CO with K9, then you move all-in preflop instead of folding or limping, as I suspect, you are currently doing. If you get action, you are usually not in good shape, but you still have equity, so sometimes you will win and dubble up. And more importantly you have a lot of fold equity with 12BB, so most of the time nobody wants to contest you, and you increase your stack 20% without having to show down the winning hand.

your suspicions about my game are a little off the mark.
I didn't talk about something to be done routinely, just an adaptation in certain mtts where we don't have a K9 to go all in with 12bbs, but when we have 3bbs in the SB and we receive AK suited and the BB has 75bbs.

 

[yuriko oyama]

At that point of the game, the bubble things are critical and everyone must be careful. The game is governed by variability and diversity. So you don't want to meet a bad moment of this volatility on the bubble. But this can happen, because it is maths. So we must act carefully and wisely.

that's very correct, I just wanted to analyze that sometimes the dynamics of the game end up making us make certain decisions that, no matter how -EV they are, are the best decisions for that particular situation, at that moment I've been trying to consider this dynamic more than even the letters I receive.
I don't know if you agree.

 

[johnnylawford]

It's worth keeping in mind the ideas of 'fold equity' and 'risk premium' in tournaments. You can't really blame players for calling light if they have you covered by a lot and losing to you won't affect their future game. If you feel like you're losing with the best of it more frequently than you 'should' be and you have a HUD like PT4 or Hold Em Manager you can always pull a report of your expected vs. won big blinds to see if you're actually losing regularly or it's just your mind's bias.

 

[RustyRed83]

No such thing as garbage hands, just garbage play.

 

[puzzlefish]

The problem is, that when you get very short, you lose your fold equity. If the player in BB, who is closing action, get a good enough price, then they are correct to call you with any two cards. And since all hands have equity preflop, you will regularly lose to, what you call "garbage" hands. The remedy is to loosen up your game, so you dont let your stack dwindle away just trying to make it into the money.

For instance if you have 12BB, and it folds to you in CO with K9, then you move all-in preflop instead of folding or limping, as I suspect, you are currently doing. If you get action, you are usually not in good shape, but you still have equity, so sometimes you will win and dubble up. And more importantly you have a lot of fold equity with 12BB, so most of the time nobody wants to contest you, and you increase your stack 20% without having to show down the winning hand.

It's worth keeping in mind the ideas of 'fold equity' and 'risk premium' in tournaments. You can't really blame players for calling light if they have you covered by a lot and losing to you won't affect their future game. If you feel like you're losing with the best of it more frequently than you 'should' be and you have a HUD like PT4 or Hold Em Manager you can always pull a report of your expected vs. won big blinds to see if you're actually losing regularly or it's just your mind's bias.

Yes, the ultimate solution is to be the big stack sitting in wait on big blind and closing the action. Unfortunately most of the time we just don't find ourselves there. Even if we play well, chances are that at some point we will find ourselves on our last legs in a tournament. That's how it works.

Personally I don't even blame these players for calling, as I would do the same in their positions if the "risk premium" is right. I just blame the software, the platform, the game, and the universe - whatever all of this is, some kind of big joke sometimes.

 

[GarotoMaroto]

Well,try to make them fold the garbage hands them,should work XD
God bless

 

[enzoen]

I know sometimes it's frustrating to lose in bubble. But it can happen very often. My best advice is to build your own push or fold ranges, when you are in bubble stage with few blinds, And you could also do it if you have many blinds to take advantage of this stage. Then you make a balance to see if your rank is working or not. Also remember to play with position in these stages having a short stack is essential

 

[paddyswarrior]

I notice a lot that when I'm very short, close to the bubble that I'm obviously out of, I get some really monster hands, a lot of + EV, ex: AK suited, AA, KK, QQ and I almost always get called by a garbage hand and I obviously lose .
no complaints, I'm in this game to play and learn. But I've preferred to make some very -EV plays and try to get to the ITM miserably, than simply go down shooting.
I would like to know if anyone has the same impression?
and if you agree with my attitude?

This sort of thing happens to us all....

 

[fundiver199]

your suspicions about my game are a little off the mark.
I didn't talk about something to be done routinely, just an adaptation in certain mtts where we don't have a K9 to go all in with 12bbs, but when we have 3bbs in the SB and we receive AK suited and the BB has 75bbs.

Yes but what is your question then about this situation? The hand play itself for both you and BB, who of course have to call you with any two cards, because you are so short, and he is already in for 1BB, plus there is an ante. 7c2s has 33% equity against AdKh, so its completely expected, that AdKh will regularly lose.

 

[exer888]

your suspicions about my game are a little off the mark.
I didn't talk about something to be done routinely, just an adaptation in certain mtts where we don't have a K9 to go all in with 12bbs, but when we have 3bbs in the SB and we receive AK suited and the BB has 75bbs.

Basícly where the BB calling range is any two And then complaining about "garbage hands"

 

[BelFish]

It should be noted that opponents are doing the right thing by calling shoves from shorties with trash hands... It's all about pot odds. Often the short stack has zero fold equity and it's better not to "rock the boat" and wait for the ITM...

If you have a small stack, then don't try to shove against the chip leader of the table on the bubble, because he will most often call because of high pot odds and because there is no threat of elimination from the tournament.

Here a person could go to ITM, but i did not let him in )))



The pot odds after he shoved were 1.64:1 and i only needed to win 38% of the time to break even.



I did not consider how correct my call was, but even if not very correct, then the error is not very large. And i just wanted to punish him for such impudence, that is, for pushing into the chip leader of the table right on the bubble )))

So, before pushing your hand, you should always think at the bubble: have you enough fold-equity or you will be called by your opponent without options in 100% of cases...

-----------------

But here, already after the bubble, the person absolutely correctly called my push, having a trash hand, when i was already a short stack )))
Again, it's all about pot odds...

 

[Pavel1203733]

I notice a lot that when I'm very short, close to the bubble that I'm obviously out of, I get some really monster hands, a lot of + EV, ex: AK suited, AA, KK, QQ and I almost always get called by a garbage hand and I obviously lose .
no complaints, I'm in this game to play and learn. But I've preferred to make some very -EV plays and try to get to the ITM miserably, than simply go down shooting.
I would like to know if anyone has the same impression?
and if you agree with my attitude?

Hello. I had the same hands a lot of times. It's very sad situations but it just can happen.
If i had "monstr-hand" i went all-in easyly and even if i lost i was angry not always. Because i knew that this was 'the monstr'hand".

 

[fundiver199]

So, before pushing your hand, you should always think at the bubble: have you enough fold-equity or you will be called by your opponent without options in 100% of cases...

Even on the bubble its still correct to push with no fold equity, if your hand is strong enough. The hands, you want to avoid pushing, if you dont have fold equity, are hands like small pairs or small suited connectors, because these hands are always flipping at best when called. Instead you want to push hands, that dominate some of the calling ranges like for instance AQ or even KJ. So its not like, your opponent did anything wrong. Or for that matter OP pushing his AK. They both made the 100% correct play, and it just did not work out for them this time.

 

[BelFish]

Even on the bubble its still correct to push with no fold equity, if your hand is strong enough. The hands, you want to avoid pushing, if you dont have fold equity, are hands like small pairs or small suited connectors, because these hands are always flipping at best when called. Instead you want to push hands, that dominate some of the calling ranges like for instance AQ or even KJ. So its not like, your opponent did anything wrong. Or for that matter OP pushing his AK. They both made the 100% correct play, and it just did not work out for them this time.

I understand this, which is why i wrote that with such an effective stack, i may have made a mistake by calling that push... And he should have tried to double up with his hand to have a chance to go deeper into the ITM.

In general, when reading what i highlighted in bold, we need to digress from the picture under which i wrote this, and consider the situation when the stack is very short, like 2-3BB.

I notice a lot that when I'm very short, close to the bubble that I'm obviously out of

With such a stack, he would not improve his standings much if he doubled up, but he would risk not getting into the ITM with an unpaired hand, when the chance that no one will call is zero. Even a small pair is better than AQ, and any 2 cards have at least 30% equity...

 

[fundiver199]

I understand this, which is why i wrote that with such an effective stack, i may have made a mistake by calling that push...

I dont like the rationale, you gave in your post, that you wanted to "punish" him for jamming into the chipleader. Thats an emotional way of thinking, which has no space in winning poker strategy. But that being said I completely agree with your own statement, that if this was a losing call, it was only marginally losing. So a hand like this is not the one, which make or break your long term results.

And he should have tried to double up with his hand to have a chance to go deeper into the ITM.

Exactly. He should not be focused only on min-cashing with a 10BB stack.

In general, when reading what i highlighted in bold, we need to digress from the picture under which i wrote this, and consider the situation when the stack is very short, like 2-3BB.

This is true but only, if there is a realistic chance, the bubble will have burst, before you get hit by the blinds again. That might be the case in MTTs with very large fields, but otherwise typically not. And then you still have to jam any decent hand, when it folds to you in SB, and you are ultra short. Sometimes BB will also punt and not defend, even they are getting the odds to do so with any two. Today I saw someone not defending, when UTG had jammed for 1,3BB, and I had put in the extra 0,8BB to call from SB. Most likely because he was multitabling and only noticed his hand but not the pot odds, he was getting.

With such a stack, he would not improve his standings much if he doubled up, but he would risk not getting into the ITM with an unpaired hand, when the chance that no one will call is zero.

Its not only about increasing his chance of running deep. Its also about the fact, that if he have 8BB rather than 3BB, then he has a much better chance to then fold his way to the money. Purely relying on someone else to either punt or run into some kind of cooler is usually not the best way to navigate the bubble. Players doing it often end up being the bubble boy anyway

 

[kitchy65]

It should be noted that opponents are doing the right thing by calling shoves from shorties with trash hands... It's all about pot odds.


The pot odds after he shoved were 1.64:1 and i only needed to win 38% of the time to break even.



-----the person absolutely correctly called my push, having a trash hand, when i was already a short stack
Again, it's all about pot odds.

In my opinion..Pot odds are useful for helping calculate equity or EV in all poker games.
But they're less relevant HU, and still somewhat less relevant in a Tourney.

"Breaking even over the long term" ( therefore my call is correct) is in all likelihood going to end up badly, you aren't playing for cash, you're playing for chips/credits for this individual tourney life.

There are a lot of tournament situations where you have correct pot odds to call, but where calling would be a big mistake.

ICM is the most important factor in tourney play. Why?

Consider this, tourney enters the bubble stage. You have the 3rd biggest stack in the tourney.
Holding KK you raise 2.4x, 3x, whatever from the BTN.

When both the blinds then shove (the largest being 3/4 your stack) is it correct here to always call?

If you answer yes, ALWAYS!....then you aren't cashing, or going deep into as many tourneys as you could be.

You really shouldn't be looking for coin flips on the bubble with bingo players!
Your job in this stage of the tourney is to take advantage of your stack size ,steal and add to your stack, not blow it off!!!

Equally, calling shoves with 8,10s risking half your stack (taken you 3 hours to accumulate) is also bad play.

Just my thoughts on it.

 

[BelFish]

Thanks guys! You write very correct things
ICM is the most important thing in a tournament on late stages and sometimes you have to take into account very large "icm-penalties"!

I did not describe that spot in detail... I'll just say that sometimes there are specific situations based on the reads and the backstory of the game...

 

[fundiver199]

ICM is the most important factor in tourney play.

ICM is important in tournaments, but only when you are risking a significant percentage of your stack. If you are faced with a decision to call a 3BB jam with a 75BB stack, as in the example discussed here, your range should be exactly the same, weather its a cash game (chip EV) or tournament.

 

[kitchy65]

ICM is important in tournaments, but only when you are risking a significant percentage of your stack. If you are faced with a decision to call a 3BB jam with a 75BB stack, as in the example discussed here, your range should be exactly the same, weather its a cash game (chip EV) or tournament.

I don't disagree...my thoughts we're more about the big picture.

What IS correct play early tourney may NOT be the correct play as it progresses.

Getting your stack in early with 77 with several callers could be very profitable and quadruple your stack...calling with 77 at the final table, following a raise,3-bet and shove is not good poker, despite you getting good pot odds to call.

 

[mina271]

What goal do you set for yourself when you go to a tournament? If you just want to do itm then you can simply fold everything before the bubble, including the premium hands, but if you have the Ft as your goal, then you can't avoid taking risks. And then it also depends on how many chips you have in your hand. If you have a low stack, you are often more forced to take risks than if you have a large stack because you have more room to play there. But no matter how you play and with which goal it can happen again and again that you lose with the best hand against the worst, the only thing that is important is that you don't start imitating this bad game and that you keep trying to stick to your A game.

 

[YLAN]

I notice a lot that when I'm very short, close to the bubble that I'm obviously out of, I get some really monster hands, a lot of + EV, ex: AK suited, AA, KK, QQ and I almost always get called by a garbage hand and I obviously lose .
no complaints, I'm in this game to play and learn. But I've preferred to make some very -EV plays and try to get to the ITM miserably, than simply go down shooting.
I would like to know if anyone has the same impression?
and if you agree with my attitude?

Whenever low stack, bigger stacks bully with almost any cards since they easily cover your stack. You would notice that sometmes bad beats happen.

 

[mariale_1990]

You cannot expect less from a player who has more chips vs one who is very low in chips, when that happens to me most of the time I don't get upset because if I have very few chips it is logical that someone who has a lot of chips wants to take advantage of the opportunity to win a few more and without putting a lot at risk, the important thing is to keep trying and learning, sometimes those cards are in our favor and we win and other times it is the other way around