Yep- that’s exactly what I think happened. I think my decision making process is sound, but on the edge here I talked myself into a spot that I didn’t’ need to be in – of course I don’t know what the future held either, maybe this was the best I was going to get. It’s also easy to say I should have folded knowing now that I lost.
Even if I think middle pocket pair, like eights, for UTG – I’ve still got 2 overs and it is a standard race. But I certainly could have waited a while.
The more I think the more convinced I am this hand is a fold.
Even in a turbo 13bb is workable, especially as the guys to your left have similar stacks. I've already said it in another post today, but 'raise wide, call tight'. Unpaired high cards are never that far ahead even against a random ATC range.
+1 to Duggs' ranges too and as I said I don't think UTG is as light as you think here. You already figured it was a race before you called so the next question you need to ask yourself is 'do I need to race yet?' If you're the best player at the table (or close to it) then the answer to this is often 'no'.
Re being BTN instead of CO: it's confirmed, having others left to act is huge. When playing ICM based push/fold poker you'd be amazed at just how much tighter your push range gets even going from SB to BTN...
...if you're in the SB for this hand and BB is calling with top 15% of
hands, there's an 85% chance he won't wake up with a hand and call. In the CO for the same hand assuming BTN, SB and BB all call with 15%, it drops to just a 61% chance that you'll be HU here
