SP wrote;
Things to note:
Registering 20 minutes late does *not* mean you'll last 20 minutes longer (tournament time). The blinds will be higher so they'll eat into your stack quicker. So maybe you'll advance another 10 minutes, and that is not going to get you significantly closer to cashing.
This is true, however, We will have let 20 minutes go by with others doing the inevitable busting of the lagtards which I for one am glad to do (allow others to do the 'heavy lifting' if you will). Also, any sit outs are likely to be marked as such and they won't be slowing the game, and boring me to death.
When I play on time, I often finding myself playing looser than I want and shrinking my stack as a result in the first few orbits. I have gotten used to coming back from a short stack situation. I don't relish it, but it doesn't panic me anymore.
Balancing those things with what SP wants us to consider as disadvantages makes me think they balance out, almost all the way to the end of late registration.
Which brings me back to the defacto overlay we may find by registering late. At the end of most late registration periods yeah, we will be shorties, relatively, but close to half the original field may already be gone. If it is significantly more or less than half the field (approx 50% of every MTT field goes by the end of the first hour) we can make some interesting decisions. Often the dynamics of the tourney have increased the payoffs so that those who register early actually ended up with less of an even chance to excel, while the late folks end up with more of a chance based on overlay vs stack size dynamics, but less of a chance based on initial stack size that still works out to be better than starting on time.
The one thing that will be missing to late registrants is finding the rhythm of the game. Each MTT has a rhythm, from the start. It will change fast as those lagtards fall away, but by sitting patiently at the tables, observing, you will get the rhythm and its flow changes faster than a late registrant.
IMHO, it is slightly +EV considering what I think are the negatives of early MTT play. I have not run it thru an ICM calculator, and probably should.
Somebody get on that K?