Is it ever the correct play to fold post flop with greater than 50% equity?

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Axmanace

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This scenario is one I’ve encountered multiple times in micro stake tournaments with multiple fish: someone inadvertently going all in post flop.

Normally I’m inclined to call, especially given the fact that I know my equity is greater than 50%.

That being said - it leaves me vulnerable to being eliminated. Mathematics say to call... but is it always correct to do so - or are there times when folding the best equity hand makes sense?

The most common situations I’ve had this happen is when the fish has a straight or flush draw (but not both) and/or the fish has two unpaired over cards.

I’ve also had this happen when the fish had a mid pair.

Wanted a second opinion to see if one should play these situations differently or if they are always a snap call.
 
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Tony0

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Look up ICM independent chip model if you are not already familiar.

If you are on the cusp of the money or a large prize step it can be -EV to call even with strong hands.

If it's a bounty you would have to also factor that in too.
 
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SharkFinn

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If it's a marginal spot, like say you think you have 55% equity, then there's not all that much difference in EV between calling and folding. If you're at a table with multiple fish and you have a big skill edge then passing up those 55% all ins to guarantee that you stay in the game and can find better spots to exploit them can be the right move, even without taking ICM into account.
 
theANMATOR

theANMATOR

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Does the math tell you what type of opponent you are up against? You seem to think all the opponents are fish - but other players shove when they think you might be holding top pair and they have a set, or they have oesd and you binked 2 pair on the flop. If a NIT is shoving - make a cry call, but it's gonna hurt when you "think" you have 50% and the cards are turned over and it's more like you have 25 or less. If it's an aggro player where you have seen him shove often on the flop with top pair, or a gut shot - might be more inclined to make the call - regardless of the maths.
 
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DIANTA

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grater than 50% equity? I would consider 45-55% a coinflip, so prefer to not call postflop all-in having expected 55. Of course it's up to the specific situation also - ICM, stats, stack size, etc= sometimes 20% is enough.:egg:
 
Collin Moshman

Collin Moshman

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Interesting question!
As Tony says, I believe ICM would be the only reason -- It's for your tourney life when you're mid-stacked at a final table, for example. In that case, if you're not getting good odds and have say 53% equity, folding could definitely be correct.

Without prize pool concerns, I believe you would never be correct to have over 50% equity post flop and fold.
 
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