How much luck is needed in large fields?

[MiguelCPA]

This sentence stuck out for me.... 'playing properly' in an MTT means making adjustments to the other players on your table, as well as making necessary adjustments in play in relation to your stack size & how it relates to the size of the blinds... and to the size of rest of the stacks on your table.
ie. quite often (situationally dependent obv.) when you're sitting on a resteal-sized stack of say 15-25bb's and you're in LP or in the blinds and an overly aggressive player who's been opening up alot of pots comes in for a raise, you'll need to be shipping in the pile with stuff like QTs, J9s, etc. (situationally dependant obviously... but just an example).

You're never (or rarely ever) going to win an MTT by playing 'tight' (aka 'proplerly' <?) in mid to late stages of an MTT - sitting & waiting for big hands is a recipe for failure.
hope this helps....

^^ This and instead of looking at how much luck you need, I think of it in terms of not getting unlucky with the few big hands that do come up. Variance is part of the game, so I just embrace that fact. Tight may be right early when taking down small pots won't really increase your chances of winning the tournament, but you need to learn to look for spots that are profitable to open up your game during the course of the tourney to chip up. By this I don't mean turn into a spewy donkmeister just for the sake of opening up your game, but as an example, if you are at a somewhat tight table with aggressive players to your right and passive players to your left, if it's folded to you in middle pos raise with some hands you normally wouldn't. Step out of your comfort zone and you'll see that you can pick up chips this way. Even if you are called, you may win a huge pot when you connect hard with a board that your opp will never believe you should hit. Most times, you'll prob just steal the blinds and antes because of your otherwise tight image.

 

[ROSE1954]

hello all
whenever we are out of the gamewe think we are unlucky but the fact is we do not give work to our brain instead we just go behind making chips.THE FACT IS we lack patience.

 

[LBroadbent]

As other have said, the variance is higher, but skill should ultimately win out. The problem with a bigger field is that you will more than likely be all-in more times than in a smaller tournament. In these situations you will need your hand to hold up and, in the case of coin flips, you will have to win pretty much all of them.

 

[Myusername]

I believe the first part of the tournament say the first hour is all about survival and you do not need luck to do that. Just make sure that what you are going in with is your best chance for the pot. Until you can build your stack you need to be playing tight. I liken it to a long nascar race you are wanting to keep progressing but stay out of trouble and do all you can to avoid an accident (bad beat) or breakdown (dumb decisions usually based on uncontrolled emotions). I try to avoid all ins even when I feel I have a great chance of winning in other words I am not going to go all in with anything until I can see the flop unless I almost have to. Avoid unnecessary risks as much as possible and stick with your style of play and your strategy and you will usually go deep into any big tourney. Try to get to the point to where you are in complete control of the table and that to me is to work at getting double the stack of the rest of the players at your given table.

 

[Poker Orifice]

Oh-oh... so you're not going to attempt to get it allin with AA/KK in early levels preflop if possible? (ie. you 3-bet villain with AA.. he 4-bets... you're not going to jam with AA here? (if you believe villain is going to committ) Or even if stacks are SUPER deep, are you saying you're not going to attempt to get all of the chips in the middle with AA/KK ?

 

[TheKAAHK]

Since there are so many complete and thoughtful responses already in this thread I'll just go ahead and skip the long version.

How much luck is needed in large field tourneys? A buttload.

 

[sherbert]

Large MTT's

I find it best to play tight and slow. The object is to reach the money. I go completely by the AVERAGE STACK as to my play. If I start falling way behind the average stack then I will go into double up mode. As long as i am at or near average stack I play slow and wait for the best hands. If I get ahead then great. I still play slow and tight. Don't wait until the blinds have robbed you to death to make a go at a double up if you start getting low on chips. That's about as good as you can play the MTT's as far as I'm concerned. If you can float and stay at average for three hours then you should be getting close to the money. So many ways to play and so many opinions on every poker style. Good luck.

 

[Grinderinoz]

Just look at the final table of the WCOOP main event. The eventual winner cracked another players AA with K9 to hit a straight, that gives you an idea how much luck is needed.

I can just imagine the vomit building up in my throat if I held the AA in such a large event nad on the final table.

 

[engman]

There is a lot luck involved in huge fields. Many times I have gone in with premium hands and been sucked out because so many people are in the hands. The bigger the field. the bigger chance you have of getting sucked out of a tournament.

 

[BeaverTrump]

Hello again all.

When you're getting in a tournament with thousands of participates is it purely a luck based game? I'm not disputing that poker is a skill but these large tournaments with many participants seem quite luck based. This is based on results i'v seen on playing who win or get to the final table.

When i check their stats, it's this one tournament that actually give them a positive ROI and iv seen someone winning 5k in a 1dollar by in with only a profit long term of around 500dollars. This must mean that they have blown away 4,500 grand on tournaments previously and they are ITM like only 5% of the time.

This leads me to the conclusion that actually large field tournaments are actually just a breeding ground for bad playing who hope and in many cases do get lucky to finish on the final table.

Does anyone know of anyone who actually consistently does well with thousands of participators? If not, then would you say these large field tournaments are just a waste of money if you are a tight player who trys to actually play poker properly? Meaning you haven't really got a cat in hells chance of performing well enough ?

If that is the case then what sort of field sizes do you recommend in MTT to consistently make a long term profit? I seem to do ok at around 200-500 participants..

Your views and thoughts would br great, many thanks.

My opinion is that in the big tournaments, within easy walking distance of prizes simply by playing carefully .... but unfortunately you're right, that they present vast amounts of fish, which is due to luck often comes high places, but I'm sure that at the final table so the fish do not)))) Well, no luck, too, can not win ... . after all anyway, and coin flip - is a lottery)))

 

[Charade You Are]

Any big MTT requires tons of luck. You have to survive the ai's with your monster hands, you have to win races. Just playing tight might get you itm but that's not what you are going for.

Had the wonderful experience last week of being "the card rack". Couldn't miss a flop, could hit with anything. Ended up big stack at the ft and finished first. A chimp (read Jamie Gold) could have played my hands and won. Wonder how long before that will ever happen again.

 

[Myusername]

Oh-oh... so you're not going to attempt to get it allin with AA/KK in early levels preflop if possible? (ie. you 3-bet villain with AA.. he 4-bets... you're not going to jam with AA here? (if you believe villain is going to committ) Or even if stacks are SUPER deep, are you saying you're not going to attempt to get all of the chips in the middle with AA/KK ?

I would but what I was attempting to say was that I am not usually going to be the one who initiates an all in. I will bet aggressively and if in doing that I am put into an all in situation then by all means I will go all in. I just try to avoid as many unnecessary risks as possible until I am in a position to actually win the tournament then I really open up and get down to some hard nosed poker.

When I play a hand the first question I ask myself is am I willing to go all in if necessary and if the answer is yes then I play it and play it aggressively. I am not saying I never limp in with a K-6 for example if I can see the flop early which I just did earlier today and somehow K6K hit. This is something that is part of my overall play but in moderation and only if I can see the flop on the cheap. This strategy works well in large tournaments and can help you get to a point where you can dominate, but if you abuse this you will never build a stack. Thanks for the question as it did need some clarification. Just won a 493 player freeroll on cake last night that awarded 7 tickets and I finished with the highest chip count practicing pretty much what I am saying.

 

[hunden]

To much. Best cards wins the pot

 

[cardriverx]

I'd say it depends on how much the buy-in is. Lower the buy-in = More Luck needed, as well as the amount of total people matters.

 

[papagallo]

The best way to keep yourself in the game is to use your SKILL to build a big enough stack so that when luck bitchslaps you, you're still in the game.

You're gonna be on both ends of a heartbreaking 2 outer suckout. USE YOUR SKILL to pad yourself enough of a stack to absorb donkbeats.

 

[sheesho]

beginning is total crap shoot especially if blinds are big compared to stack size. mid game is when you set your self up for either fringe itm run or a deep run to a final table

 

[blueskies]

Luck is by far the biggest determining factor how far you advance in large fields. You can get your chips in ahead every time, but without some luck you are not gonna make it.

Last two tourneys I have been in, I've been taken down by TT when I had JJ. (All in pre and a 10 on the flop)

And then AQ taken down by AT. Also all in pre. A 10 on the river just to twist that knife harder.

If I won either one of these I would have probably at least cashed.

I don't know what else I can do. Get chips in all in pre in a great position to double up. Instead, get taken down by hands I dominated.

The people who tell you all you need is skill is fulla ___.

 

[ComplyorDie]

Lots of Luck

which is why you need a big stack you'll raise with KK and some drunk aggro player pushes with Ax and hits

you can't fold as you get better you'll find the hands that bust you are the same kind of hands AA, KK, QQ trips ect

they play them selfs

I'm sure some of the best online MTT players only hit the money 16% of the time thats not ROI.

so at say $10 level its easy to take a $800 swing take that in context there the best players.

 

[mishu]

Luck is of course a large factor in winning or reaching final tables in large field MTT'S and especially in large field freerolls. That is the reason why most people reccomend playing at about /100 your BR. It is a grind but if you are good if might be profitable on the long run

 

[Amanda A]

I think there's different phases of the tourney where luck is more important than others. If I'm playing a micro tourney I need to double or trip up early I need luck for that but then if I get a decent stack and it's past the rebuy period sometimes you have a period where you can play real poker again and it's not just a shove fest, then I think skill comes in a bit more.

 

[Anatoliy Tolik]

Everything is the same everywhere. Those who love allin, fly out in the first 15 minutes, and everything is still calm. The game for the outcropping tournament of 25,000 players

 

[dejan85]

sometimes happens some player won big tournament and earn a lot of money,but never happen again that means he had luck that day....

 

[drolin]

The ability is one of the factors that causes some players to reach the ITM more than others, because where many players fall others grow even more in the moment of the bubble, where the more experienced players take to steal the weak.

Already the luck is to receive pair of AA and to win the all-in where you are behind the villain.

 

[albosaltenio]

y point of view is that without the share of luck you will not win as simple, beyond that one tries to play well if you do not have the share of luck it will be impossible for you to win

 

[StellarLunatic]

Luck is a major factor in the final stages.

The past few weeks I've played about 13 tournaments, I know this isn't a huge sample size, but I do tend to fall on the side that believes luck is a huge factor in tournaments. Of those tournaments, I went deep 12 times, got 1st place once, 4th place, and 17th and 23rd (min cashes). I think I'm a fairly good player, which is why I can consistently make it deep, the tournaments are usually buyins between $50 and $100.

In the early stages, skill dominates, play a solid TAG game and you'll go deep. But by the end, especially if its a turbo format, the blinds are so high, you have to take chances, not all of them ideal. You have to do that if you want to see the final table, because at end stages you can't wait for the best situation, so your going to have to get your money in on some iffy situations, and get lucky, fact.

I think a lot of players may be deluding themselves with the skill/luck ratio in poker, especially in tournaments. Yes poker is a game where being skillful will consistently give you an edge, but I think we should stop pretending that luck isn't a huge factor in the game.

That being said, I love tournament play, its exciting, and competitive. I play cash games too, where luck is less of an issue, no rising blinds means you can just sit on your ass all day, nittin it up until you have the best situations.

Tournaments make you play, and yeah, make you take chances. I love it.