Folding AKs btn for min raise

[LFC_yllnwa]

You have a very good hand and an excellent position, but in this situation, when the payouts are very close, you should not take any risks. I think if you don't look at the payout, you should go all in. You have 21 big blinds and a great table situation for you. But utg position, it bothers me very much.. I think if you play all-in, it's very difficult to knock him out and it's possible to get a very bad hand from him... Therefore, folding in this situation is the right decision, it is not easy, but it is right.

 

[eetenor]

Well. If I didnt play against the UTG more than 70 hands and knew he opened UTG 2 times I'd jam, UTG+1 is a loose cannon, he is a gambler. two hands ago he called QQ with 67o and for the last 10 hands he went to showdown about 5 tomes and never folded one hand.
From my perspective. I can call, and lose 2.5 chips if the flop doesnt help, even turn or river and keep calling with AK to the chip leader, who is agg pf.
I can Jam, he will call anyway, UTG will fold unless he has AA/KK/AK/QQ, 1/4.5 times we will split the pot.
So, after using the 90 sec of my time bank, no one was out so I folded. As it happened, I remember UTG doubles up with a set JJ because our friend the chip whale kept calling.
Common sense dictates to 3bet or shove AKs, but the logic says chose your battles and ur opponents wisely. Moreover, I did register in this tournament at the late reg period after I was knocked off cardschat freeroll. I started the tournament with 20 BB and managed to make it to the 4th money jump. I lost to a 3way pot with 4bet -jam PF AA to QK who covered my stuck and the OR had TT. The very same whale. Moral of the story.
Dont get involved in pots with gamblers.

Thank you for responding.

You stated:
"Common sense dictates to 3bet or shove AKs, but the logic says chose your battles and ur opponents wisely"

This is a very good point, knowing our Villains allows us to know their ranges. The ranges are the key. As in this spot the villains ranges made a shove in this spot EV correct but ROI incorrect as we have a skill advantage so post flop play may have the higher EV return vs this combination of V.
Thus calling not folding is again the correct play as we can decide on the flop.

Hope this helps

 

[thehangdude]

I am probably shoving suited AK, even with the UTG raise and bubble implications. A chance to pick up about 7BB for free or coin flip for a double up plus, against a tiny chance villain has AA or KK.

Folding is safely getting ITM. If that was your goal, then folding was the right thing to do.

 

[atyagi]

Thank you for posting.

19 BB after we call is still a playable stack so at minimum it is a call.

The UTG range and the UTG1 range both have weaker Ax and KXs in them so we can raise and not be only crushed by AA KK or flipping versus QQ etc.

We are also suited so we can flop pair and flush draws so again a call is equity positive compared to a fold. We are also in POS so this hand at this stack depth is 0 folds for me.

We also are not playing tournaments to just cash them. So we can raise decide if we get shoved on by the UTG and we think they are shoving only AA KK QQ AK. Then we could fold for a min cash.

Also if the min is really important we use our time bank to take enough time off the clock that someone else goes broke before our hand finishes.

We time bank then 3 bet then time bank again if UTG shoves. If they just call we time bank every street unless we hit a monster on the flop like flopped flush.

That way we get to play for the double our chip stack and possibly get the min cash even if we lose the hand.

Hope this helps

Time bank probably won’t work as most likely it’s hand to hand at bubble

 

[fundiver199]

Well. If I didnt play against the UTG more than 70 hands and knew he opened UTG 2 times I'd jam,

70 hands is 8-9 orbits, so if he already opened UTG 2 times in this small sample, this is actually more than expected. The sample is still to small to really say anything for sure though, so I would look at his overall VPIP and PFR, if you are using a HUD. But if anything then him opening UTG 3 times (including this) out of 8-9 opportunities is certainly not a reason to tighten up. If anything its a reason to get involved.

UTG+1 is a loose cannon, he is a gambler. two hands ago he called QQ with 67o and for the last 10 hands he went to showdown about 5 tomes and never folded one hand.

Which makes jamming even more profitable for you.

As it happened, I remember UTG doubles up with a set JJ because our friend the chip whale kept calling.

So you would have lost, which you then see as validation of the way, you played the hand. Classic results oriented thinking.

Common sense dictates to 3bet or shove AKs, but the logic says chose your battles and ur opponents wisely.

And with the information, you gave, these are exactly the kind of opponents, you want to get involved with. Especially the field caller since he was apparently a whale.

Moral of the story. Dont get involved in pots with gamblers.

Getting involved in pots with gamblers and "risking your tournament life" is the way to have a high ROI and potentially win tournaments. So if that is you goal, then this risk adverse approach is something, you seriously need to rethink.

 

[ga25x]

For me it's an easy push. We never play for mincash here, we must build up our stack. I understand the fold tho. Calling in this spot is the worst way to play.

 

[wrzlbrnft]

Interesting Thread for me as a beginner. Had a comparable situation yesterday very close to the bubble with calling / raising chipleaders. Recieved 2 time strong hands in different Positions and folded, Finally I got ITM and finished close to Top Ten.. Next time I will try to increase my stack...

 

[fundiver199]

I plugged the hand into ICMizer telling the program, it was a 1.500 man "big". In those 278 places pay, so I told the program 279 were left. In that way we were still on the bubble, and it should make almost no difference, that this tournament was a bit larger. As for all the unknown stack sizes I put them on 30BB, which should be close enough to the situation on a typical bubble.

As expected Heros jamming range is rather narrow, but AK is part of it. Hero should jam TT+, AQ+, KQ, AJs, KTs+. This is the NASH equilibrium, if everyone play optimal ranges. UTG should open 31% of hands and only continue with 2,5%. UTG+1 should call 22% of hands and only continue with 3,7%. In this situation Hero makes a profit of 0,02% of the price pool jamming AKs.

Now we have information, that UTG+1 is a whale, so lets see, what happen, if we widen his range. Lets say he call 50% of hands and then continue with 25% facing a jam from Hero. I think, these are pretty fair ranges for a whale. Now Hero should only jam TT+, AK and AQs, but AKs still makes Hero 0,02% of the price pool.

Now lets go to the extreme and say, the whale never folds. He is calling 100% of hands and calling 100% of hands, when Hero jam. Now Heros jamming range change to 88+, and jamming AKs has an EV of 0,00% of the price pool, which mean its close to break even but negative EV.

So Hero does have a point, that its bad for AKs in this situation to have a whale in the hand, that is less likely to fold. However I have yet to see a whale, who NEVER fold to an all-in shove. So the middle scenario, where he initially call 50% and then call the jam with 25% of hands, is much more realistic. And even in the unrealistic scenario, where the whale never fold, jamming is close to neutral EV.

Also this calculation does not take into account the fact, that Hero might cash, if someone with a shorter stack busts at another table in the same hand. And with 450 players left this is very likely to be the case. To simulate that we can pretend, we are in the money already. In the optimal scenario this hardly changes Heros range. However if we put the whale on 100% of hands, now Heros jamming range becomes 77+, AQ+, ATs+, KJs+, and now jamming AKs nets Hero 0,03% of the price pool, so it actually becomes even more profitable.

The truth is somewhere in between these results, but the conclusion is still, that AKs is a profitable jam. And whenever that is the case, we clearly should not fold. Only question left is, if just calling is better. And I can see some advantages of that play. We have position, and if the whale is really that bad, we might stand to make a lot of chips from him after the flop, when we connect. It also gives us more chances to use our time bank and see, if someone has already busted, before we decide, if we want to move all in.

 

[popstani]

Well. If I didnt play against the UTG more than 70 hands and knew he opened UTG 2 times I'd jam, UTG+1 is a loose cannon, he is a gambler. two hands ago he called QQ with 67o and for the last 10 hands he went to showdown about 5 tomes and never folded one hand.
From my perspective. I can call, and lose 2.5 chips if the flop doesnt help, even turn or river and keep calling with AK to the chip leader, who is agg pf.
I can Jam, he will call anyway, UTG will fold unless he has AA/KK/AK/QQ, 1/4.5 times we will split the pot.
So, after using the 90 sec of my time bank, no one was out so I folded. As it happened, I remember UTG doubles up with a set JJ because our friend the chip whale kept calling.
Common sense dictates to 3bet or shove AKs, but the logic says chose your battles and ur opponents wisely. Moreover, I did register in this tournament at the late reg period after I was knocked off cardschat freeroll. I started the tournament with 20 BB and managed to make it to the 4th money jump. I lost to a 3way pot with 4bet -jam PF AA to QK who covered my stuck and the OR had TT. The very same whale. Moral of the story. Dont get involved in pots with gamblers.

I really like how did you play, folding such a strong hand it’s really difficult. Everybody here talking about calling, jamming, this program says this or that, you have equity on your side..., but nobody talks about momentum, about what kind of players you are against. Even with AA you can still lose against 72( happens to me to many times in the bubble). I know for sure that when ever I find fold with premium hands, I run deep in the late stages of tournaments. You analyse your opponents, and made really good decision. Well done, Sir!!! Congratulations and great respect!!!

 

[Pet548]

I have to learn to fold such strong hands although it is a difficult decision. Very often I lose with AK at the crucial moment

 

[greatgame230]

I call respecting that we are in the bubble but at least I call and see the flop

 

[theANMATOR]

Jam - I'm going for final table not min cash. I bust - oh well. I double up - now we have some playing chips. The other players should be just as scared as you are at either losing momentum with the stacks they have - or busting out sooner than the money.

 

[peaceofcoke]

Jam - I'm going for final table not min cash. I bust - oh well. I double up - now we have some playing chips. The other players should be just as scared as you are at either losing momentum with the stacks they have - or busting out sooner than the money.

I am literally few places to the bubble and the guy to my left get got, so dont tell me this never happens. I won a big pot and kicked a$$ to lose shortly ITM after to AK, the guy that came shortly after to my left. flop QT9 while I had a set QQ on the flop and the guy jammed, turn river JA. and was left with 0.29BB. So now, should I have called his allin on the flop or not? P.S. it is bounty builder

 

[theANMATOR]

I am literally few places to the bubble and the guy to my left get got, so dont tell me this never happens. I won a big pot and kicked a$$ to lose shortly ITM after to AK, the guy that came shortly after to my left. flop QT9 while I had a set QQ on the flop and the guy jammed, turn river JA. and was left with 0.29BB. So now, should I have called his allin on the flop or not? P.S. it is bounty builder

I didnt say - whatever you think - never happens - don't know where you pulled that from. Another post maybe?

I said I'm playing to shoot for the final table - if I bust here with the hand you were holding - I'm cool with that. Min-cash isn't appealing to me, but if that is what you are shooting for, that's a fine option.

 

[peaceofcoke]

I didnt say - whatever you think - never happens - don't know where you pulled that from. Another post maybe?

I said I'm playing to shoot for the final table - if I bust here with the hand you were holding - I'm cool with that. Min-cash isn't appealing to me, but if that is what you are shooting for, that's a fine option.

I was playing with all my bankroll. I had 0 eur and didnt want to make a deposit. I was mad I lost CC freeroll to a coin flip, I remember I had AA and lost to some random hand.

 

[theANMATOR]

I was playing with all my bankroll. I had 0 eur and didnt want to make a deposit. I was mad I lost CC freeroll to a coin flip, I remember I had AA and lost to some random hand.

That sucks dude. Were you able to recover your bankroll. There is a lesson there too, but I'm sure you know it. GL in the future coke.

 

[foran]

Minimum, you have to pay, but if you play to win you have to go all.

 

[theANMATOR]

Thank you for posting.

19 BB after we call is still a playable stack so at minimum it is a call.

The UTG range and the UTG1 range both have weaker Ax and KXs in them so we can raise and not be only crushed by AA KK or flipping versus QQ etc.

We are also suited so we can flop pair and flush draws so again a call is equity positive compared to a fold. We are also in POS so this hand at this stack depth is 0 folds for me.

We also are not playing tournaments to just cash them. So we can raise decide if we get shoved on by the UTG and we think they are shoving only AA KK QQ AK. Then we could fold for a min cash.

Also if the min is really important we use our time bank to take enough time off the clock that someone else goes broke before our hand finishes.

We time bank then 3 bet then time bank again if UTG shoves. If they just call we time bank every street unless we hit a monster on the flop like flopped flush.

That way we get to play for the double our chip stack and possibly get the min cash even if we lose the hand.

Hope this helps

Agree 100.1%