Bubble Nightmares!!!!

[finaltable1]

If, then, else - well we will exclude "else" and use formal logic.
"Bubble nightmares"


Logic says that the player with big stack won't have "nightmare" problems during the bubble and most likely won't lose his stack easily cause obviously he's the big stack - is this correct by your opinion? If so, then logic says that the topic starter has a problem passing the bubble with short or mid stack. Is this logically correct? If so then my previous post is also correct and you have to agree.

Regarding "bust-run" and "min cashing means nothing".

Let's check the numbers: Let's say You're grinding exactly 1K MTTS per year with average buy-in $11. Let's say average min cash is $50/ If you're tilting and try to catch lady luck then most probably you'll have 20% or much less late finishes, I mean ITM. If you're playing rock solid game, knowing that bubble is just one more stage that you have to pass on your way to the final table, (and stack sizes don't matter much yet, cause obviously you will have to pass AQ vs JJ or QQ vs AK preflop all-in stage) then most probably you'll have 25% or more late finishes.

That's 5% more often ITM per 1000 games = 50 more with min cash $50 = $2500 per year, if you're grinding since 2009, more than 3-4K MTTs at several poker platforms then it's quite obvious that these "junky pennies" accumulate in quite a few dollars, well if you agree to throw them away and practice luck runs - I can't blame you for that. Poker needs different players.

And the final word of formal logic regarding "overcoming the issue". I believe that I've made final table and seen people reaching it after a bad beat that dropped them down to 1-2-3-4BB stacks - I've seen it and lived it several hundreds times. I've played the usual game after it, throwing away K9 and pushing all-in with 77+ and step by step got back to average and kept playing. I believe that in such situation Your "overcoming the issue" move will be all-in with something that looks like some hand, connector maybe? JQ is a monster in such situation - right?

By the way, are you making any profit in poker?

 

[theANMATOR]

If, then, else - well we will exclude "else" and use formal logic.
"Bubble nightmares"


Logic says that the player with big stack won't have "nightmare" problems during the bubble and most likely won't lose his stack easily cause obviously he's the big stack - is this correct by your opinion? If so, then logic says that the topic starter has a problem passing the bubble with short or mid stack. Is this logically correct? If so then my previous post is also correct and you have to agree.

Regarding "bust-run" and "min cashing means nothing".

Let's check the numbers: Let's say You're grinding exactly 1K MTTS per year with average buy-in $11. Let's say average min cash is $50/ If you're tilting and try to catch lady luck then most probably you'll have 20% or much less late finishes, I mean ITM. If you're playing rock solid game, knowing that bubble is just one more stage that you have to pass on your way to the final table, (and stack sizes don't matter much yet, cause obviously you will have to pass AQ vs JJ or QQ vs AK preflop all-in stage) then most probably you'll have 25% or more late finishes.

That's 5% more often ITM per 1000 games = 50 more with min cash $50 = $2500 per year, if you're grinding since 2009, more than 3-4K MTTs at several poker platforms then it's quite obvious that these "junky pennies" accumulate in quite a few dollars, well if you agree to throw them away and practice luck runs - I can't blame you for that. Poker needs different players.

And the final word of formal logic regarding "overcoming the issue". I believe that I've made final table and seen people reaching it after a bad beat that dropped them down to 1-2-3-4BB stacks - I've seen it and lived it several hundreds times. I've played the usual game after it, throwing away K9 and pushing all-in with 77+ and step by step got back to average and kept playing. I believe that in such situation Your "overcoming the issue" move will be all-in with something that looks like some hand, connector maybe? JQ is a monster in such situation - right?

By the way, are you making any profit in poker?

I'm doing quite fine in poker thanks for asking.
As for your math - its faulty. For any min-cash in an $11.00 event, at max your looking at $22.00 return at best, not $50. Often min-cashes aren't even double the buyin.
Unless you have some top secret events that pay out 4x at min-cash that nobody is aware of.

Agree with your point however that poker DOES need different players. I'm just giving my advice on OPs issue of dealing with bubble play. I'm suggesting to him to play a strong, non-passive game at this stage and not worry about busting just before the min-cash.
Sitting out is avoiding the issue, instead of either overcoming this issue, or looking at it from a different perspective.

 

[finaltable1]

I'm doing quite fine in poker thanks for asking.
As for your math - its faulty. For any min-cash in an $11.00 event, at max your looking at $22.00 return at best, not $50. Often min-cashes aren't even double the buyin.
Unless you have some top secret events that pay out 4x at min-cash that nobody is aware of.

Agree with your point however that poker DOES need different players. I'm just giving my advice on OPs issue of dealing with bubble play. I'm suggesting to him to play a strong, non-passive game at this stage and not worry about busting just before the min-cash.
Sitting out is avoiding the issue, instead of either overcoming this issue, or looking at it from a different perspective.

For this example I took the numbers that are easy to calculate... 11, 1K and 50. You can adjust. Indeed if it's a bounty game you're often getting just 80-90% of initial buy-in when you hit the money. I'm playing mostly at iPoker and 888 networks and some of the non bounty, rebuy games are giving (depending on number of participants) between 3 and 5 buy-ins for the last paid place. Ofc if you're ITM without any rebuys and haven't spent on addon then you'll often get +3 or +4 buy-ins with initial buy-in back.

I've checked your record at sites that you're playing. It's quite a big number of games you've played at ACR. 14.5K games in total. Are you sure that you're doing everything correctly? Perhaps more calm, patient and tight poker will give better results than "strong and non passive gambling without worrying about busting" game that you've most probably played among these 14.5K tourneys? Numbers might be wrong, also I don't insist, but maybe having a look at the whole picture to see it clearly and to accept and learn from our mistakes is the key to progress?


By the way. Do you agree that sometimes, maybe even too often than we would like, but sometimes we could win more by just sitting out from the table until auto all-in with last chips? You never know if your KK will hold against AQ - right? But you do know that some specific tourney lasts 5 or 6 hours, so if you push or call a all-in right or will be involved into a 3bet pot right now then you can either win or lose right now with your 30bb(example) stack. What you also know is that this 30bb stack can survive without your participation for another hour if you'll just close the table and leave poker.

Being honest I also use this "cowboy style" of yours during the bubble or during whole game, but in freerolls and microlimit games, specially against timer stalling and other types of scared players. Well anyways it was a nice conversation and I wish you good luck at the tables.