Am I playing HU Incorrectly?

[schnozzinkobenstein]

I know I'm showing hands in this post, but it's more about the strategy I should be taking, rather than these specific hands.

It seems like every HU I get into boils down to a couple AIs in which I'm always a favorite and I always lose them. Am I playing HU incorrectly, or is it good that I am reducing it to an almost 10% die roll for my opponent to win?

Below is what I'm talking about. A good amount of chips changed hands only twice during my HU, and both times I had him (almost) covered, so I am thinking he had a 10-15% chance to win both of them. If he hadn't won both, I would have taken him out, so that means that I essentially had an 85-90% chance to win this HU, right?

BB (t46215)
Hero (SB) (t133785)
Hero's M: 25.48
Preflop: Hero is SB with 3♠, 3♣
Hero bets t9000, BB raises to t45840 (All-In), Hero calls t36840
Flop: (t92430) 6♠, Q♥, A♣ (2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t92430) 5♣ (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t92430) 10♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: t92430

SB (t92430)
Hero (BB) (t87570)
Hero's M: 16.68
Preflop: Hero is BB with K♦, A♣
SB bets t9000, Hero raises to t21000, SB raises to t92055 (All-In), Hero calls t66195 (All-In)
Flop: (t175140) 8♠, 8♣, 6♣ (2 players, 2 all-in)
Turn: (t175140) 9♥ (2 players, 2 all-in)
River: (t175140) 7♥ (2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: t175140

Is my thinking at all right? Do I need to be doing something differently?

 

[The_Pup]

I know I'm showing hands in this post, but it's more about the strategy I should be taking, rather than these specific hands.

It seems like every HU I get into boils down to a couple AIs in which I'm always a favorite and I always lose them. Am I playing HU incorrectly, or is it good that I am reducing it to an almost 10% die roll for my opponent to win?

Below is what I'm talking about. A good amount of chips changed hands only twice during my HU, and both times I had him (almost) covered, so I am thinking he had a 10-15% chance to win both of them. If he hadn't won both, I would have taken him out, so that means that I essentially had an 85-90% chance to win this HU, right?

BB (t46215)
Hero (SB) (t133785)
Hero's M: 25.48
Preflop: Hero is SB with 3♠, 3♣
Hero bets t9000, BB raises to t45840 (All-In), Hero calls t36840
Flop: (t92430) 6♠, Q♥, A♣ (2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t92430) 5♣ (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t92430) 10♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: t92430

SB (t92430)
Hero (BB) (t87570)
Hero's M: 16.68
Preflop: Hero is BB with K♦, A♣
SB bets t9000, Hero raises to t21000, SB raises to t92055 (All-In), Hero calls t66195 (All-In)
Flop: (t175140) 8♠, 8♣, 6♣ (2 players, 2 all-in)
Turn: (t175140) 9♥ (2 players, 2 all-in)
River: (t175140) 7♥ (2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: t175140

Is my thinking at all right? Do I need to be doing something differently?

I know it seems that way but it isn't. It is so much easier to remember the 'better hand lost' than 'worse hand lost' or better hand won'. Notice how often people comment after an outdrawn hand 'that always happens to me' but how rarely they say anything when their hand holds up.

Anyway, to your question. 33 is about 50/50 to any random overcards and your AK is 50/50 to a smaller pair, dominates Ax and Kx, is 60/40 to undercards and in horrible shape against AA. For the sake of argument let's say you are 50/50 preflop (this is probably very conservative). That means that given your chip lead the villain has to win both these all ins - lose one and they are out (or as near as damn it out). So, you will win this game 75% time and lose 25% - that looks pretty good to me. These are roughly the same odds as KK v A2o - if you are offered those hands with equal stacks I would assume you would be delighted to mak the call.

That is the cold hard maths of the situation (and I admit the numbers are only rough) but there could be a lot more going on in previous hands. For example, in the first hand the villain is about 50% with ATC to your 33 - are they shoving with a proper hand or are they they trying to push you off with junk? If you have been too passive in previous hands then you could have been inviting this type of reraise rather than a call or fold, which may be preferable. If they had been fairly tight in previous hands then maybe a fold is better since we could be facing a higher pair and even if not we are accepting a coin flip.