Why pay a hand with only a 27% chance of victory?

AllinIgor

AllinIgor

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I'm not going to deny that I was disappointed for about five minutes, but as this is normal, I soon forgot and life that follows.
In a final table with only 4 players left, I finished in 4th place, but knowing I did my best. Take a look at the action:


Blinds 3500/7000 up from 700

I open with raise of 14000 with KQo of Cut, BB calls.

Flop: 5 sword 2 gold Q sword

7K bet villain

I'll re-raise for 49k villain call

Turn: 6 hearts

Villain check in a 146K pot

Went all in with 115,371k, call villain

River: 4 sword


Villain pulls the pot with 377.042K completing the flush showing Sword A7.

Gg...




Good luck at the tables!
 
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fundiver199

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Seem like this was intended for the hand review section, but maybe a moderator can move it? Anyways as you say, there is not much to learn from this hand. You did the right thing by raising his silly donk bet (fish bet) on the flop and jamming the turn, and the result just is, what it is.
 
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Sidetracked

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It looks like, with the flush draw, and the backdoor straight draw, and the ace overcard, he was about 46% on the flop.

Pretty standard to get it in there.
 
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fundiver199

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It looks like, with the flush draw, and the backdoor straight draw, and the ace overcard, he was about 46% on the flop.

Pretty standard to get it in there.

The standard play for Villain would be to check-jam the flop to give himself fold equity and still have good equity when called. Making a min-sized donk bet on the flop is not a good play, and when he just call Heros raise, he is not getting the right pot odds to call off the rest of his chips on the turn. So when he play his draw in this passive way, he should have given it up on the turn. In this particular situation, where Hero had top pair, the result would obviously have been the same though, since Hero would clearly have stacked off on the flop.
 
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Sidetracked

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The standard play for Villain would be to check-jam the flop to give himself fold equity and still have good equity when called. Making a min-sized donk bet on the flop is not a good play, and when he just call Heros raise, he is not getting the right pot odds to call off the rest of his chips on the turn. So when he play his draw in this passive way, he should have given it up on the turn. In this particular situation, where Hero had top pair, the result would obviously have been the same though, since Hero would clearly have stacked off on the flop.


All good points. The point I was making was that villain had far more equity on the flop than OP had calculated.
 
oakthyago

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the first villan bet, on the flop, we call it block bet.

Good players usually don't do it. However we make a trap this way this kind of play use to come from a begginer. If is not a trap its a draw or a small game on his hands.

he had 27% you are right but before the showdown all that we have are ranges on mind.
 
florestaftw

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I'm not going to deny that I was disappointed for about five minutes, but as this is normal, I soon forgot and life that follows.
In a final table with only 4 players left, I finished in 4th place, but knowing I did my best. Take a look at the action:


Blinds 3500/7000 up from 700

I open with raise of 14000 with KQo of Cut, BB calls.

Flop: 5 sword 2 gold Q sword

7K bet villain

I'll re-raise for 49k villain call

Turn: 6 hearts

Villain check in a 146K pot

Went all in with 115,371k, call villain

River: 4 sword


Villain pulls the pot with 377.042K completing the flush showing Sword A7.

Gg...




Good luck at the tables!

You did the right thing, every 10 of those hands, you're going to win 7.
 
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CSLysander

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Actually, with the cards being the same suit, it gives a little more equity to the way some people play. It gives the chance to see if a flush can be made and there are other possibilities. They already had 7k invested and they may have decided to see what the cards did.

There was a couple of videos by Evan Jarvis that explained the concepts of both plays. The BB has a pretty positive EV if defended with decent cards. An ace with a midcard being suited has many possibilities. I do not know where the videos are on YouTube, but I am certain he can explain it better.

After the flop, the person had a couple of possibilities that in their mind were worth gambling for. Some people get to a point where they want to either see if they can get the cards and get the chips they need for making the final table or they are going to be done with the tournament. They may have decided they had already put more chips in than was tolerable to let go. Some say it is a rookie move, but they had 3 A outs, all the ones left of the same suit, which could be around 10, so they thought they had a chance. You say 27% and they thought it was higher. Flush draws can be a pretty powerful pull for some.
 
rock0001

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the opponent played poorly on the turn and was lucky to win on the river. you ask why he called your all in? maybe he thought you were bluffing or he just wanted to take a chance even knowing that his chances of winning the hand were most likely less than 50%
 
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fundiver199

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the opponent played poorly on the turn and was lucky to win on the river. you ask why he called your all in? maybe he thought you were bluffing or he just wanted to take a chance even knowing that his chances of winning the hand were most likely less than 50%

As you say, Villains call on the turn is not actually that bad. Sure he dont have enough equity against a made hand, but A7 beat most bluffs, and if Hero have no bluffs in his range, then its actually Hero, who is playing poorly. Personally I normally dont call in spots like this, because with ICM considerations I want to make profitable calls rather than break-even or slightly losing calls. But it is at least close, because A7 has an overcard, which will sometimes be live, and it might simply be the best hand already. If Villain had a J high flushdraw or worse, it would be a much more clear fold.
 
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Sbrzz

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Putting a block bet on the flop and calling his 7bb raise is something I wouldn't do with the hand he had. Only some players in those limits make some totally meaningless plays that it is even difficult to know what hands they have.
But I think that after that flop it was clear that he would not fold anymore, because if I am not mistaken the pot had 70,000 chips and he had 115,000 behind.
 
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Zirkzee

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Everyone is ready to take different levels of risk. Some never throw away a strong draw. He also knows that if his card comes he'll hold the nuts. That's why he calls even though he only has a 27% chance of winning.
 
Vallet

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The opponent is waiting for the arrival of an ace or the completion of a flash draw. The odds are slightly different from your calculations. But some players don't count their chances. They see the flash draw, forget about everything, their eyes are burning, and they are ready to go to the end.
 
sara maria

sara maria

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Well I would risk it if we already entered prizes since the blinds are a problem, if you don't risk you are out. :)
 
demesquita

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As you say, Villains call on the turn is not actually that bad. Sure he dont have enough equity against a made hand, but A7 beat most bluffs, and if Hero have no bluffs in his range, then its actually Hero, who is playing poorly. Personally I normally dont call in spots like this, because with ICM considerations I want to make profitable calls rather than break-even or slightly losing calls. But it is at least close, because A7 has an overcard, which will sometimes be live, and it might simply be the best hand already. If Villain had a J high flushdraw or worse, it would be a much more clear fold.


I am of the same opinion
 
sara maria

sara maria

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KQ is the worst hand to open, I have a lot of experience and I realized that when you get the big blind with KQ it is because they are already kicking you out of the tournament, that's why I never call with KQ I only check. :(:(:(
 
PatriceM915

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Good Afternoon

Certainly to win and reach the top and to reach the top we must take some risk.
But it depends a lot on the awards. Sometimes it is better to settle for little than to be left with nothing.:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::eek:;););););)
 
AllinIgor

AllinIgor

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Thanks for all the comments, they are of great value to me Good luck at the tables!
 
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