OzExorcist
Broomcorn's uncle
Bronze Level
(Disclaimer: what follows is mostly theoretical, as I don't play at levels this high)
First up, he stands to gain a few things other than the 60 chips already in the pot. He might also gain:
- A reckless and unpredictable table image, which he can trade on later
- A double up if someone calls him and the hand holds up
My point is that you're only analysing this using first level thinking, and I suspect you can't necessarily rely on that alone when you're paying $500 a game
The first level thinking on this is exactly what you've said: "He has to have AK/QQ+ to do this"
The second level thinking is based on the fact that, as you've stated, this is a bizarre line for a monster to take: "This is so obviously representing AK/QQ+ that he must have something else - nobody would reveal the strength of their hand this obviously when there's only 60 chips at stake and they're only getting called by a hand that dominates them or splits with them. It's probably a 67s or something that figures it'll at least have two live cards and is happy to take a 40/60 shot at table dominance?"
At that level of thinking, something like JJ or TT might indeed call the shove figuring most of the time they'll either be ahead, or racing against AK. AQ/AJ is less likely to call, but I wouldn't discount it completely. Point is, if the shover gives his opponents credit for this level of thinking, he's likely to get action for more than just the 60 chips in the pot from a wider range of hand than just AA and KK.
The third level thinking is: "Because this so obviously represents AK/QQ+, and he thinks I'll think he must be bluffing, this actually must be AK/QQ+"
...and so on. Depending on the level of thinking a: the shover is working on and b: the shover gives his opponents credit for, the possible hand ranges will change.
That's one explanation. There are plenty of others too, of course.
Looking at a hand like this, I try to remember that there might be valid, non-donkey reasons for hands other than AK/QQ+ to take this line, and there is often more at stake than just the chips in the pot. The reasoning may seem strange or nonsensical to us, but that doesn't make it invalid.
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feitr
Legend
Silver Level
You are trying to complicate things way way too much. Do you REALLY think that somebody is going to shove from EP with 89s? Do you REALLY think that anybody is going to think that sombody is going to shove from EP with 89s? There is no double thinking when you open shove something when nothing is at stake...
What you are basically saying is UTG is thinking "ok i will shove 89s and hope somebody calls with a much better hand so I can have a 25-40% chance of doubling" and that the BB is thinking "ok UTG must be open shoving with 89s to try and trick me so im sure that my AJo is good. Oh shit what do you know he actually had KK...who would have known".
This has NOTHING to do with table image. What is the point of a table image if your shove gets called by a better hand? "Giving credit for this level of thinking" is basically hoping that you are playing vs overthinking/stupid donkeys.
It is completely different if you shove your stack after you turn the nuts because you are hoping they think "ok why the hell would he shove if he has me beat...he would just value bet so i'll call the shove because hands that beat me don't take this line and i think he is probably bluffing".
But to say that somebody is going to risk their entire stack for 60 dead chips to play mind games is idiotic. I can't even fathom how you could suggest such a thing. The risk vs reward is ........................
Why would you try and hope that he is playing some incredibly unlikely mind games and shoving with a shitty hand, when in 95% of cases he is only shoving because he is BEGGING that you call and double him up.
What you are basically saying is UTG is thinking "ok i will shove 89s and hope somebody calls with a much better hand so I can have a 25-40% chance of doubling" and that the BB is thinking "ok UTG must be open shoving with 89s to try and trick me so im sure that my AJo is good. Oh shit what do you know he actually had KK...who would have known".
This has NOTHING to do with table image. What is the point of a table image if your shove gets called by a better hand? "Giving credit for this level of thinking" is basically hoping that you are playing vs overthinking/stupid donkeys.
It is completely different if you shove your stack after you turn the nuts because you are hoping they think "ok why the hell would he shove if he has me beat...he would just value bet so i'll call the shove because hands that beat me don't take this line and i think he is probably bluffing".
But to say that somebody is going to risk their entire stack for 60 dead chips to play mind games is idiotic. I can't even fathom how you could suggest such a thing. The risk vs reward is ........................
Why would you try and hope that he is playing some incredibly unlikely mind games and shoving with a shitty hand, when in 95% of cases he is only shoving because he is BEGGING that you call and double him up.
OzExorcist
Broomcorn's uncle
Bronze Level
*sighs*
*shrugs*
All I'm trying to say, and have been saying all along, is that there are some perfectly valid explanations for the plays they made aside from "ZOMGZ they must be donkeyz LOLZ!!1!!!1!".
Different people have different motivations, different ways of approaching the game, and they most definitely think at different levels. And unless you're a regular at the $500 SnG level yourself, you really can't be writing anything off.
*shrugs*
All I'm trying to say, and have been saying all along, is that there are some perfectly valid explanations for the plays they made aside from "ZOMGZ they must be donkeyz LOLZ!!1!!!1!".
Different people have different motivations, different ways of approaching the game, and they most definitely think at different levels. And unless you're a regular at the $500 SnG level yourself, you really can't be writing anything off.
H
Henreiman
Visionary
Silver Level
In these big level stakes, a lot of play is centered around stealing the blinds. With a big hand like this, the move is interesting: however, he is most likely pretty confident that with almost any ace or pocket pair, he would be called, as they would think 'steal.'
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feitr
Legend
Silver Level
^^ lol not when the blinds are 20. Nobody cares if you steal their BB if their stack is almost 100 BB deep.
And OzE yea i get what you are trying to say, but in this case i think the obvious option is far and away the most likely option.
And OzE yea i get what you are trying to say, but in this case i think the obvious option is far and away the most likely option.
rwilson
Rock Star
Silver Level
lol.. good luck to him if he's pushing his stack UTG+1 to steal the 60 chips worth of blinds in the middle.
I agree with Feitr.. pushing like this when it's early and blinds aren't a factor is screaming AA-QQ, possibly AKsuited. I don't care what school of poker you're from, the vast majority of the time they're not going to be pushing any less than that... and they're doing it to entice someone on the wrong side of the coin to gamble with them.
Still not sure why he would do it, but as everyone else has been saying, without knowing the history of these people it's hard to discount any play they make. Obviously thought he was a good chance to get a call from someone. $500 table, there'd probably be a couple of players on it that don't mind a gamble or two!! and it's suprising how many times some people will underestimate the value of their hand when the chance to double up is sitting in front of them!
I really don't agree with the AK call personally.. at best it's even money or slightly on the wrong side of a coin flip to this range.. at worst it's like a 20-30% underdog.. you could probably find a better time over the course of a SNG to shove your stack! If the unlikely did occur and it did happen to turn out that he was crazy enough to push a lower hand than AA-AKs from that position at that stage then good on him, he deserves the 60 chips in the middle
OzExorcist
Broomcorn's uncle
Bronze Level
Here's an idea:
Just for a moment, try to forget the fact that this is a $500 SnG. Take the two zeros off the end, and pretend it's a $5 SnG instead.
Because in reality, the buy-in shouldn't actually matter that much - one assumes that if people are playing a $500 SnG, they've got a bankroll in the tens of thousands and if they bust on the second hand, they'll just move on to the next game.
So: if this same thing happened in a $5 SnG, would people really be as shocked and outraged at the respective plays? Would you still say that the shove could only ever be AK/QQ+, and that there was no way AK should be able to call the bet? After all, it's only five bucks, right?
Just for a moment, try to forget the fact that this is a $500 SnG. Take the two zeros off the end, and pretend it's a $5 SnG instead.
Because in reality, the buy-in shouldn't actually matter that much - one assumes that if people are playing a $500 SnG, they've got a bankroll in the tens of thousands and if they bust on the second hand, they'll just move on to the next game.
So: if this same thing happened in a $5 SnG, would people really be as shocked and outraged at the respective plays? Would you still say that the shove could only ever be AK/QQ+, and that there was no way AK should be able to call the bet? After all, it's only five bucks, right?
z28_RoadRage
Road Warrior
Silver Level
I will agree the $500 label is what made this stand out to me. But even if it was only $5 and my BR was same ratio to $500, I still think the all-in with KK for 60 chips is wrong.
BUT, I have looked at the other tables since the original post and have noticed they are all multi tabling together. I don't remember the names of who played the KK or AK, so I'm going to assume they may have just finished a table together and may have some bad blood running or as was stated, they must have a lot of history together.
But I did learn from everyones post. "A difference in opinion is very refreshing."
BUT, I have looked at the other tables since the original post and have noticed they are all multi tabling together. I don't remember the names of who played the KK or AK, so I'm going to assume they may have just finished a table together and may have some bad blood running or as was stated, they must have a lot of history together.
But I did learn from everyones post. "A difference in opinion is very refreshing."
Steveg1976
...
Silver Level
OzE - I totally understand what you are trying to say. And LOL at everyone sitting and saying why a hand HAS to be played a certain way when we have nothing other than this one hand to analyze, no reads, no previous history and possibly we are being missled by the fact that 500 on 1 sit and go is a lot to us but presumibly it wouldn't be to the people playing at that level
Merlin333
Rock Star
Silver Level
What is "right"
I think that what you play is if not entirely, at least partially situational. What you might play with certain players, in a certain position, at a certain level and pot is totally different as those factors change.
For example: I was at a table where everyone was playing high cards only - a lot of A?, K?, Q? (? = rag) - time after time after time. I get 8's, everyone bets (I'm in the HighJack position) I raise - everyone calls 8 10 J comes. It's likely that at best, I'm trips against JJ with an A or K kicker, Q 3 comes - I'm all in against two players one with QQ 33 ,the other with JJ A kicker. I've folded those eights before in a different situation a thousand times and felt I did the right thing - this time not.
What is "right" is totally dependent on what is happening with the players, with the cards, at the table.
That's what I think
Merlin333
I think that what you play is if not entirely, at least partially situational. What you might play with certain players, in a certain position, at a certain level and pot is totally different as those factors change.
For example: I was at a table where everyone was playing high cards only - a lot of A?, K?, Q? (? = rag) - time after time after time. I get 8's, everyone bets (I'm in the HighJack position) I raise - everyone calls 8 10 J comes. It's likely that at best, I'm trips against JJ with an A or K kicker, Q 3 comes - I'm all in against two players one with QQ 33 ,the other with JJ A kicker. I've folded those eights before in a different situation a thousand times and felt I did the right thing - this time not.
What is "right" is totally dependent on what is happening with the players, with the cards, at the table.
That's what I think
Merlin333
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feitr
Legend
Silver Level
The fact that it is 500$ changed absolutely nothing for me. The only thing it did is make me assume that these players are somewhat competent. So simply assuming some level of experience.
I understand that hands can be played differently given a changing context. HOWEVER, and this to me is the point, what on earth can you possibly gain from open shoving your entire stack with 60 chips in dead money.
Scenario 1: Your range is wider than QQ+ AKs. Say you shove JJ or AQ. There are 2 options. You get called or you pick up the dead money. If you get called you are at absolute best a coin flip and there is a good chance you are completely dominated. Risk vs reward = absolutely shitty. Remember, this person is shoving from UTG+1. In a full ring game playing a hand like AJo from UTG+1 is on the loose end of your range let alone shoving a hand that is only marginally better.
Option 2: Ppl fold...you gain 60 chips and perhaps ppl will view you as a little loose-->but for all they know you had AA. Reward = next to nothing.
Scenario 2: Your range is extremely tight and you dominate all hand ranges and hope to get an easy double up.
The whole flaw in the wider hand range logic to me is that you stand to gain NOTHING AT ALL unless you are called. And since only top hands could possibly call you are in serious trouble if you are shoving with less than a premium range. You are completely overrating table image imo. Table image is about raising in position, c-bet frequency etc. It is NOT about randomly shoving from OOP.
Ultimately i cannot see anybody ever condoning making this call with less than premium hands. If you are making this call with JJ because you hope like hell that he is shoving AK and you can get a coin flip that is terrible logic. Because in the vast majority of cases, ie. what poker is all about, this move is being made by a VERY tight range indeed. It is illogical to shove a hand that can only be called by a better hand.
And sure, it is possible that UTG+1 has played with the BB alot and that UTG+1 randomly shoves alot with crappy hands. But lets be realistic, the odds of that being the case is remote at best (he would be broke for one).
I understand that hands can be played differently given a changing context. HOWEVER, and this to me is the point, what on earth can you possibly gain from open shoving your entire stack with 60 chips in dead money.
Scenario 1: Your range is wider than QQ+ AKs. Say you shove JJ or AQ. There are 2 options. You get called or you pick up the dead money. If you get called you are at absolute best a coin flip and there is a good chance you are completely dominated. Risk vs reward = absolutely shitty. Remember, this person is shoving from UTG+1. In a full ring game playing a hand like AJo from UTG+1 is on the loose end of your range let alone shoving a hand that is only marginally better.
Option 2: Ppl fold...you gain 60 chips and perhaps ppl will view you as a little loose-->but for all they know you had AA. Reward = next to nothing.
Scenario 2: Your range is extremely tight and you dominate all hand ranges and hope to get an easy double up.
The whole flaw in the wider hand range logic to me is that you stand to gain NOTHING AT ALL unless you are called. And since only top hands could possibly call you are in serious trouble if you are shoving with less than a premium range. You are completely overrating table image imo. Table image is about raising in position, c-bet frequency etc. It is NOT about randomly shoving from OOP.
Ultimately i cannot see anybody ever condoning making this call with less than premium hands. If you are making this call with JJ because you hope like hell that he is shoving AK and you can get a coin flip that is terrible logic. Because in the vast majority of cases, ie. what poker is all about, this move is being made by a VERY tight range indeed. It is illogical to shove a hand that can only be called by a better hand.
And sure, it is possible that UTG+1 has played with the BB alot and that UTG+1 randomly shoves alot with crappy hands. But lets be realistic, the odds of that being the case is remote at best (he would be broke for one).