Whats your move here?

[KMC1828]

full tilt poker Game #3450842176: Double Stack $5 + $0.50 (26299461), Table 24 - 15/30 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:35:59 ET - 2007/09/03
Seat 1: Break17 (3,030)
Seat 2: gene75 (2,955), is sitting out
Seat 3: barrelhead (3,315)
Seat 4: gabeska (2,835)
Seat 5: ceezatm (2,880)
Seat 6: TNJCAMP22222 (2,940)
Seat 7: YB30 (3,045)
Seat 8: D_A K1D (3,000)
Seat 9: 6722 (3,000)
TNJCAMP22222 posts the small blind of 15
YB30 posts the big blind of 30
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Break17 [7c 7h]
D_A K1D has 15 seconds left to act
D_A K1D folds
6722 folds
Break17 calls 30
gene75 folds
barrelhead calls 30
gabeska folds
ceezatm calls 30
TNJCAMP22222 calls 15
YB30 checks
*** FLOP *** [7s 6h Jd]
TNJCAMP22222 checks
YB30 checks
Break17 bets 100
barrelhead has 15 seconds left to act
barrelhead calls 100
ceezatm folds
TNJCAMP22222 folds
YB30 folds
*** TURN *** [7s 6h Jd] [8d]
Break17 has 15 seconds left to act
Break17 bets 250
barrelhead has 15 seconds left to act
barrelhead raises to 1,100


its very early in a double stack tournament. 6th hand to be exact....whats your move? do you lay it down? or reraise all in?

 

[HOTWHEELBOB]

well you have 9 outs for a boat 1out for quads he/she might have str8 or 2pr tuff call id called 10 outs are good

 

[Kenzie 96]

What do they say, if you aren't losing big pots when you flop a set you aren't playin correctly? Fire back at him & if you are wrong or he sucks out move on to the next game.

 

[jeffred1111]

You are behind 88, JJ, 95, 9T and 45 at this point, but they are all hands wich can be played the way they were played preflop and on the flop (altough JJ is not very likely).

I can see someone with two pairs, TP or a limped overpair doing this to stop someone from drawing to the straight and taking down the pot now. Someone with a straight might try to suck you in for one more bet unless he puts you exactly on the set (since someone with two pairs might make this move but not call such a straight coordinated flop).

Since this is the beginning of the tournament, I'd be more inclined to push and take his stack than to wait for another chance at a double up (if we bust out early we can join another tournament and if we do win, we get a nice double up and get to put pressure on people).

But at the same time, the huge raise smells fishy to me when combined with the smooth flop call in position.

 

[KMC1828]

well i layed it down, after thinking about it for a good while using all my time and time bank. i couldnt put him on anything BUT the straight for some reason.

 

[jeffred1111]

What do they say, if you aren't losing big pots when you flop a set you aren't playin correctly? Fire back at him & if you are wrong or he sucks out move on to the next game.

Not exactly, I'd say that if you don't go bust with an underset you're playing them badly. Going busto with a set when you are three handed on a 4 flush board would just be dumb, especially early on like Break is.

 

[jeffred1111]

well i layed it down, after thinking about it for a good while using all my time and time bank. i couldnt put him on anything BUT the straight for some reason.

We probably got outplayed because our opponent knew that we would think that his move would "represent" a good portion of the time the nuts to us. This is why we should think about the % of times he will make this on a bluff/ semi-bluff (top pair is a bluff here, as is an overpair since he is drawing dead or almost drawing dead) and act accordingly, while measuring the odds we have of making our hand against his already made hand while deciding to call or not.

I don't mind folding and keeping this hand in our notes (since we'Re very far from committed or in bad shape after a fold), but I like to take risks early in MTTs in order to build a big chip stack (cold-deck insurance). On the other hand, a big chipstack now doesn't guarantee a big chipstack in two hours, or even at the next break since the chips won now will have less value when the blinds will have reached 50-60% of the starting chipstacks. IE a marginal hand will help you more if you win a medium pot in 5 levels than an absolute monster will right now since stacks will be bigger).

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

You are behind 88, JJ, 95, 9T and 45 at this point, but they are all hands wich can be played the way they were played preflop and on the flop (altough JJ is not very likely).

95 likely folds at some point (preflop or flop), T9 likely folds the flop. We should only really be worried about a speculative limp with 54s or a higher set, and we're beating so many other hands like random two pairs I happily shove here and cry when I get shown JJ.

 

[jeffred1111]

95 likely folds at some point (preflop or flop), T9 likely folds the flop. We should only really be worried about a speculative limp with 54s or a higher set, and we're beating so many other hands like random two pairs I happily shove here and cry when I get shown JJ.

True, true, but since this is early in a double stack, wouldn't someone just peel one off for the heck of it thinking he has the correct implied odds (wich we know he has since Break was on the verge of going AI) ? I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss these since we're all known for taking a cheap look at a flop with speculative (or even plain old shitty) hands in the first levels. At the same time, villain's WA range is very small while we are WA a lot more, so this negates the 95 9T could still be there on the turn argument.

The only thing that irks me is JJ would normally raise preflop to at least get an idea of where he stands and insure a good way to steal unless playing for pure set value, wich is kind of dumb acting lateish since only limping makes going away on a 45Q flop really difficult.